How will the polls be over the summer?

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Who will the polls favor over the long hot summer?

[President von Cat]

I think we will see Obama's approvals improve in the coming months.

The price of gas has dropped and looks set to drop even more. And jobless claims are trending down into the mid 300,000s again, which indicates an improved hiring picture. A summer with negligible gas prices and better job reports will be a first for the administration.

I don't think this will result in anti-Romney polls, but I do expect mild improvement for the president.

[milhouse24]

Its a good thing gas has dropped to $4 a gallon.  Otherwise it would be bad news for Obama.

[BlueSwan]

The best guess is arguably always a continuation of the present pattern, which is a very close race with Obama ever so slightly ahead.

[old timey villain]

Obama always seems to be hit by the summer doldrums. In 2009 it was the continuation of the recession, in 2010 it was the oil spill, and in 2011 it was the debt ceiling debacle.

Right now, I can't foresee any albatross for Obama this summer, but things can happen. And he better hope and pray things get better this summer, because he won't have much time to recover this fall.

[BaldEagle1991]

Probably a slight Obama advantage over Romney.

[NHI]

slight obama lead.

[Pyro]

Probably a slight Obama advantage over Romney.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Because of the gas price news, I'll go with positive for Obama.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obama will cont have healthy leads in oh nv co and va.

[milhouse24]

I'm not convinced the economy will get better in 2 months. 

This will hurt Obama. 

[President von Cat]

Its a good thing gas has dropped to $4 a gallon.  Otherwise it would be bad news for Obama.

I'm not sure what state you are from, but the national average price for gasoline is 3.64 per gallon, which is down around 20 cents from a year ago. It is expected to decrease even further.. and the drop comes at a time when families are enjoying Memorial Day vacation, planning summer budgets, etc.

Anyhow I agree about the above poster's summer doldrums. 2011 was arguably the worst of all. We'll have to see what happens.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I'm not convinced the economy will get better in 2 months. 

This will hurt Obama. 

Does the current economic data convince you otherwise?

[old timey villain]

It's pretty simple. Democrats see the economy as getting better, Republicans see it as getting worse. Views on Obama color peoples' economic picture more than ever before.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

In this case, however, the facts appear to have a liberal bias.

[President von Cat]

It's pretty simple. Democrats see the economy as getting better, Republicans see it as getting worse. Views on Obama color peoples' economic picture more than ever before.

Agreed. Ultimately, I think the non-partisan indies out there still want Obama to succeed, because pragmatically speaking we all win if the economy continues to improve. Thats why his approvals are within striking distance of 50% nearly three years into the sluggish recovery.

[milhouse24]

I'm not convinced the economy will get better in 2 months. 

This will hurt Obama. 

Does the current economic data convince you otherwise?

I don't know, what's the rate of unemployment now? 

[old timey villain]

I'm not convinced the economy will get better in 2 months. 

This will hurt Obama. 

Does the current economic data convince you otherwise?

I don't know, what's the rate of unemployment now? 

contrary to popular belief, people care more about the direction of the economy than the unemployment rate. Carter was defeated in a landslide and Reagan was reelected in a landslide four years later with unemployment at about the same rate - around 7%

Unemployment from 8% to the low sevens is a lot better than 10%, where it was two years ago.

[fezzyfestoon]

Definitely pro-Romney I'd think. I expect it only to get closer up until the end when Obama jumps out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Marist came out showing obama substantially ahead in ohio. The economy is getting better all the time and gas prices after labor day falls he should get reelected.

[milhouse24]

I'm not convinced the economy will get better in 2 months. 

This will hurt Obama. 

Does the current economic data convince you otherwise?

I don't know, what's the rate of unemployment now? 

contrary to popular belief, people care more about the direction of the economy than the unemployment rate. Carter was defeated in a landslide and Reagan was reelected in a landslide four years later with unemployment at about the same rate - around 7%

Unemployment from 8% to the low sevens is a lot better than 10%, where it was two years ago.

You have a vague grasp of facts.  Your facts about carter and reagan are inaccurate.

How are you judging the economy?  Unemployment rate is one of the best economic indicators of people's happiness with the economy. 

[Bull Moose Base]

I'm not convinced the economy will get better in 2 months. 

This will hurt Obama. 

Does the current economic data convince you otherwise?

I don't know, what's the rate of unemployment now? 

contrary to popular belief, people care more about the direction of the economy than the unemployment rate. Carter was defeated in a landslide and Reagan was reelected in a landslide four years later with unemployment at about the same rate - around 7%

Unemployment from 8% to the low sevens is a lot better than 10%, where it was two years ago.

You have a vague grasp of facts.  Your facts about carter and reagan are inaccurate.

How are you judging the economy?  Unemployment rate is one of the best economic indicators of people's happiness with the economy. 

No, he's right on Carter huge loss and Reagan landslide re-election happened with same unemployment rates; trend matters more.  Unemployment is down 2 points from where it was 2 years ago.  Looks likely come Election Day, Obama will be able to tout 5 million new jobs in past 2.5 years but polls are irrelevant until September when people tune in.  Obama approval and jobs numbers reveal more over summer.

[old timey villain]

I'm not convinced the economy will get better in 2 months. 

This will hurt Obama. 

Does the current economic data convince you otherwise?

I don't know, what's the rate of unemployment now? 

contrary to popular belief, people care more about the direction of the economy than the unemployment rate. Carter was defeated in a landslide and Reagan was reelected in a landslide four years later with unemployment at about the same rate - around 7%

Unemployment from 8% to the low sevens is a lot better than 10%, where it was two years ago.

You have a vague grasp of facts.  Your facts about carter and reagan are inaccurate.

How are you judging the economy?  Unemployment rate is one of the best economic indicators of people's happiness with the economy. 

You're hilarious. There's really not much to grasp. In October to 1980 (right before the election) the unemployment rate was 7.5%. In October of 1984 it was 7.4%

And if you know anything about the economy, you should know that the unemployment rate is a lagging economic indicator. It catches up to the trajectory of a recession. The UE rate usually peaks after a recession has ended and it remains high even after the economy begins to grow again.

In 1980, we were in the middle of a mild recession that brought the rate to 7.5, and in 1984 we were in a recovery that brought it down to 7.4 percent after peaking at 10.8 in late 1982.

[milhouse24]

I'm not convinced the economy will get better in 2 months. 

This will hurt Obama. 

Does the current economic data convince you otherwise?

I don't know, what's the rate of unemployment now? 

contrary to popular belief, people care more about the direction of the economy than the unemployment rate. Carter was defeated in a landslide and Reagan was reelected in a landslide four years later with unemployment at about the same rate - around 7%

Unemployment from 8% to the low sevens is a lot better than 10%, where it was two years ago.

You have a vague grasp of facts.  Your facts about carter and reagan are inaccurate.

How are you judging the economy?  Unemployment rate is one of the best economic indicators of people's happiness with the economy. 

No, he's right on Carter huge loss and Reagan landslide re-election happened with same unemployment rates; trend matters more.  Unemployment is down 2 points from where it was 2 years ago.  Looks likely come Election Day, Obama will be able to tout 5 million new jobs in past 2.5 years but polls are irrelevant until September when people tune in.  Obama approval and jobs numbers reveal more over summer.

I still think Obama has done a mediocre job with the economy.  He's been okay but not great, but the times are difficult.  It just appears to me he is focused on getting union benefits for everyone like health care, and as everyone knows whether rightly or wrongly, increasing union benefits usually cripple the growth of any company, especially in lean times.  She may be right on the numbers, but Obama's unemployment rate is still very high compared to Carter. 

[milhouse24]

I'm not convinced the economy will get better in 2 months. 

This will hurt Obama. 

Does the current economic data convince you otherwise?

I don't know, what's the rate of unemployment now? 

contrary to popular belief, people care more about the direction of the economy than the unemployment rate. Carter was defeated in a landslide and Reagan was reelected in a landslide four years later with unemployment at about the same rate - around 7%

Unemployment from 8% to the low sevens is a lot better than 10%, where it was two years ago.

You have a vague grasp of facts.  Your facts about carter and reagan are inaccurate.

How are you judging the economy?  Unemployment rate is one of the best economic indicators of people's happiness with the economy. 

You're hilarious. There's really not much to grasp. In October to 1980 (right before the election) the unemployment rate was 7.5%. In October of 1984 it was 7.4%

And if you know anything about the economy, you should know that the unemployment rate is a lagging economic indicator. It catches up to the trajectory of a recession. The UE rate usually peaks after a recession has ended and it remains high even after the economy begins to grow again.

In 1980, we were in the middle of a mild recession that brought the rate to 7.5, and in 1984 we were in a recovery that brought it down to 7.4 percent after peaking at 10.8 in late 1982.

So if Obama wants to get re-elected, he has to bring the unemployment rate from 10.8 to 7.4?  I don't know if that is possible.