1984 with higher unemployment

[old timey villain]

Let's say the economic recovery after the 1982 recession isn't as strong, and the unemployment rate in October of 1984 is the same as it was in RL in October of 1983 - 8.8% (as opposed to 7.4%)

Does Reagan still win? If so, by how much?

My guess is that Reagan still wins, but by a much narrower margin than 1980. Still, the economy is trending in the right direction slowly, which gives him the edge.

[Liberalrocks]

I was going to put a map together for reply but am having trouble posting the code here.

I think under this scenario you would see a map very similiar to 1988 with Mondale possibly doing only marginally better then Dukakis but it still would be a Reagan trouncing. I deeply admire Walter Mondale and his convictions for a better society but he was a horrible candidate on the national level. He did not do well with his image on television and lacked charisma. The critical superficial qualities that unfortunately the nation gravitates toward in the process of making their decision. Same story with Micheal Dukakis (although Willy Horton was another issue).

My map was
Reagan 401 electoral votes
Mondale 137 electoral votes

Reagan 54%
Mondale 46%

Mondale carrying all the Dukakis states except maybe Washington, Remember Reagan carried Seattle in real life. I think Mondale could also carry Maryland as Carter did in 1980 and Mondale didnt have the Willy Horton issue that Dukakis did.

A scenario involving a Mondale victory would have had to have been your scenario plus some type of a major Reagan health scare. In their first debate Mondale scored points because Reagan came off as slightly incoherent, I believe the possible early signs of Alzheimers.