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| | |-+  What time will the election be called at?
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Author Topic: What time will the election be called at?  (Read 1938 times)
Snowstalker
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« on: May 27, 2012, 08:47:01 pm »
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The presidential race in 2008 was called for Obama at 11:00 PM ET, after CA, WA, OR, and HI were called for him.
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Kushahontas
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« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2012, 09:10:15 pm »
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same time tbh
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #2 on: May 27, 2012, 09:34:55 pm »
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They waited way too long in '08. It was kind of laughable.
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Devils30
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« Reply #3 on: May 27, 2012, 09:43:03 pm »
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I'll say around 12 am after it's clear Obama has won Virginia and is narrowly ahead in Ohio.
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Nagas
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« Reply #4 on: May 27, 2012, 09:43:13 pm »
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They waited way too long in '08. It was kind of laughable.

11 was the earliest it could have been called at. Media outlets will not call a state before voting has closed (they don't want to influence the results or discourage voting).
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #5 on: May 27, 2012, 10:14:41 pm »
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Called for Romney at approximately 11 PM after he is declared the winner in Ohio and Florida.
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SJoyce
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« Reply #6 on: May 27, 2012, 10:51:08 pm »
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Called for Obama, at 11PM, after CA, NV, NM, CO, OR, WA go for him.
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President von Cat
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« Reply #7 on: May 27, 2012, 11:05:09 pm »
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I think Ohio and Virginia will be too close to call at 11 PM, as will Florida.

As of 11 PM, I expect Obama to have at most 247 electoral votes.

Then we get to see what happens in Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, Virginia, and New Hampshire.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #8 on: May 27, 2012, 11:13:22 pm »
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It will be called whenever the sun sets in Alaska.
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« Reply #9 on: May 28, 2012, 04:08:25 am »
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They'll call it at 11 or thereabouts if they can by then, but not earlier.  As I recall, the media caught hell during one cycle (I forget which one; I'm inclined to think it was either 1980, 1988, or 1996, but it was one of the ones where the winner could have been swept in WA, CA, OR, HI, AK, and NV and still won) for calling the election before the west coast had stopped voting.

For example, in 2008, removing the five 11 PM-or-later states that Obama won (CA, OR, WA, HI), he had 288 EVs.  However, I think you can argue that IN and NC (as well as NE-2) were close enough that calling them too early would have been a bad idea, and NV closed late enough that having it out wasn't untoward.

However, reversing parties, things could get...silly in the event of a hypothetical "comfortable" win, since a Republican isn't going to need CA (which is part of what drags things out for a Democrat...those 55 votes are about 1/5 of the Dems' normal winning coalition these days, and adding in the other states out there gets you to well over 1/4 of it).  The GOP really only has 26 "normal" EVs closing after 9 PM (AR/6, UT/6, NV/6, ID/4, MT/3, AK/3), so in the event that a couple of big swing states become obvious (OH and FL being the biggest ones, as well as VA...all close very early; this is even more true if a big D-leaning swing state or two such as PA or MI somehow went GOP by a sizable margin)...it could get a bit harder to "tapdance" away a clear GOP win until 11 PM without the networks looking like they were just drawing things out.
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Franzl
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« Reply #10 on: May 28, 2012, 04:23:49 am »
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Whenever a candidate is projected to have 270 or more EVs.

That was simple enough to answer.
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Taft
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« Reply #11 on: May 28, 2012, 07:07:06 am »
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Whenever a candidate is projected to have 270 or more EVs.

That was simple enough to answer.
Yes and no.  Technically, that is correct, but it is entirely possible for the networks to "drag things out" to avoid irritating people (or because the exit polls misfire, as they did in 2002).
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Franzl
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« Reply #12 on: May 28, 2012, 11:20:52 am »
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Whenever a candidate is projected to have 270 or more EVs.

That was simple enough to answer.
Yes and no.  Technically, that is correct, but it is entirely possible for the networks to "drag things out" to avoid irritating people (or because the exit polls misfire, as they did in 2002).

Considering the networks are the ones that "project" electoral votes in the first place by "calling" states, I think my point stands that it is at that point, when a network has projected 270+ EVs, that that network will also declare the election.
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« Reply #13 on: May 28, 2012, 03:15:55 pm »
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They waited way too long in '08. It was kind of laughable.

I called it for Obama when they called Ohio for him.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #14 on: May 28, 2012, 03:17:16 pm »
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Same as 2008. The West Coast will put Obama over the top.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #15 on: May 28, 2012, 03:55:28 pm »
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Well really, if any of Ohio, Florida, Virginia, or North Carolina are called for Obama, the election is pretty much over. I guess there'd be some small hope for Romney in Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin... but I doubt it.
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Torie
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« Reply #16 on: May 28, 2012, 04:21:05 pm »
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By whom?  I typically call elections myself long before the media does for example. And obviously if some states go a certain way, one will not need to wait until 270 is hit to call the election, even if the media waits. As to predicting now the time some network will call the election, well - that's hilarious. Smiley
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SJoyce
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« Reply #17 on: May 28, 2012, 04:56:43 pm »
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Earliest it can possibly be called for Obama: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=lQd

Earliest Romney: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=lQh

Latest it can possibly be called for Obama: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=lQi

Latest Romney: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=lQf
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BushOklahoma
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« Reply #18 on: May 28, 2012, 06:50:06 pm »
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I'm guessing it is going to be a nail biter either way.  It may not be as close as 2000, but possibly 2004-esque.  I'm guessing it will be called for Mitt Romney at 1:00 am ET/12:00 am CT Wednesday, November 7, 2012.
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Citizen Alfred
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« Reply #19 on: May 28, 2012, 06:53:13 pm »
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I'm guessing it is going to be a nail biter either way.  It may not be as close as 2000, but possibly 2004-esque.  I'm guessing it will be called for Mitt Romney at 1:00 am ET/12:00 am CT Wednesday, November 7, 2012.
What will the final state(s) be?
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BushOklahoma
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« Reply #20 on: May 28, 2012, 07:03:58 pm »
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I'm guessing it is going to be a nail biter either way.  It may not be as close as 2000, but possibly 2004-esque.  I'm guessing it will be called for Mitt Romney at 1:00 am ET/12:00 am CT Wednesday, November 7, 2012.
What will the final state(s) be?

I'm guessing Ohio (Romney), Colorado (Obama), and maybe Nevada (Romney).
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SJoyce
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« Reply #21 on: May 28, 2012, 07:09:23 pm »
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Colorado (Obama), Iowa (Obama), Nevada (Obama), Ohio (Romney).
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BushOklahoma
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« Reply #22 on: May 28, 2012, 07:13:43 pm »
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Colorado (Obama), Iowa (Obama), Nevada (Obama), Ohio (Romney).

I guess Nevada is probably more of an Obama state.  I posted my final states before I looked at the current polls in Nevada.  I'm going to leave it as is, though.
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Nagas
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« Reply #23 on: May 28, 2012, 08:30:32 pm »
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The better question: when will the Atlas reach a consensus on who won?

I imagine it will be called for Obama early if the exit polls and voter returns favor Obama in Ohio and/or Virginia. It will be called for Romney if he's looking good in PA or WI.
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BushOklahoma
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« Reply #24 on: May 28, 2012, 10:49:04 pm »
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Colorado (Obama), Iowa (Obama), Nevada (Obama), Ohio (Romney).

I guess Nevada is probably more of an Obama state.  I posted my final states before I looked at the current polls in Nevada.  I'm going to leave it as is, though.

As I analyze it, I'm thinking Virginia could be one of the last states to be called, as well.
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My earlier comment notwithstanding, I do think that the site would be better off if Inks left his position. (The fact that the village idiot has dropped in to express his support for him only confirms this.)
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