Nevada

[Joe Biden 2020]

I'm curious about Nevada.  According to www.electoral-vote.com, the latest poll has Obama up 52-44 at either April 30 or May 1.  Do you think that will hold or do you think that will tighten up and possibly flip red?  Will Romney's Mormonism affect it any or will the overall Democratic-swing of the southwest be enough to overcome it?

[Donerail]

Nevada will hold, 54-46 Obama.

[Adam Griffin]

Nevada should easily be Obama's, mainly due to organizing strength. It might be a contest if the Republican Party of Nevada wasn't a non-existent entity at this point.

[Joe Republic]

Romney has a LOT of catching up to do if he's going to come anywhere close to Obama's organization here.  The count is now 9 campaign HQs for Obama, compared to 1 for Romney, which has still been dormant since the caucuses in February.  His (and the RNC's) feud with the state GOP is not exactly going to help either.

Romney will likely need to look for his electoral votes elsewhere.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Mormons already have high turnout, so it will be like squeezing a rock for water to get more votes  out of the Nevada Mormons.

The state has been trending toward the Democrats for some time, and Obama's organization is a Juggernaut; it makes Reid's look puny in comparison.

[NVGonzalez]

Nevada should easily go for Obama. When you combine the demographic shift and the difference of organization between both parties the state becomes a no contest.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Obama will win: if Harry Reid could pull through in the worst Democratic year since the 20s, Obama shouldn't have too much trouble winning. Also, as others have noted the fact that the state GOP is a mess won't help Romney.

[President von Cat]

If Obama wins, its gonna be a lot closer than that. The state's unemployment is ridiculously high, Romney is no Sharon Angle, and labor may not turn out with casino employees after national Democrats left Wisconsinites out to dry with Scott Walker.