Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections?

[greenforest32]

The current partisan control of state legislatures following the 2010, 2011 elections: http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/statevote-2011.aspx



Lots of gerrymanders have gone through but for shifts in control I could see:

Legislature flips to Democrats - Seems likely for Democrats to win Colorado, Oregon, Minnesota, and Maine. Iowa and New Hampshire might be possible too. There's also New York but I've heard the state senate gerrymander makes it unlikely?

Legislature flips to Republicans - I think they have shots in Alaska, Arkansas, and Kentucky.

Legislature flips to split - Don't see many chambers flipping outside of Michigan, Wisconsin (already split 16-16 in its senate following the recalls and more are coming up), and Indiana but I'm not familiar with these redistrictings. Were they redrawn anything like the maps for Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina that have likely given Republicans control for 10 years in those states?

What do you think? And what actually happens in Nebraska's non-partisan, unicameral legislature?

[smoltchanov]

Generally agree with Democratic and Republican targets, but not splits:  redisitricting in almost all those states was a Republican gerrytmandering, so -  Republican majorities are likely to be preserved for decade (except, may be, in wave years). Republican unicameral legislature is, technically, nonpartisan, but practically - Republican with about 2:1 Republican majority.

[Keystone Phil]

2012 will have to be a Dem landslide year for PA to have a shot at going "Split" (House going to the Dems) and even then, I wouldn't bet on it happening. After the 2008 election, the GOP only had a net loss of two seats.

[TJ in Wisco]

Ohio is pretty much the same way. 2012 would have to be a Democratic landslide for the Democrats to take the House. The Senate would be virtually impossible for the Democrats to take in 2012 even though it has less lopsided partisan statistics by district because only half of it is up for re-election and it's currently 23-10 Republican. The Democrats did control the Ohio House from 2009-2011 but lost in redistricting badly, as most of the heavily Democratic inner-city areas lost population,  so it would tough for them to repeat that feat.

[Torie]

For CA to flip would require massive vote fraud.

[Mr.Phips]

Democrats take Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado, Maine, New Hampshire and Iowa, while Republicans take Alaska.  Democrats take the Michigan state House and possibly the New York State Senate as well.  Maybe the Arizona House for Democrats too. 

[Mr.Phips]

The current partisan control of state legislatures following the 2010, 2011 elections: http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/statevote-2011.aspx



Lots of gerrymanders have gone through but for shifts in control I could see:

Legislature flips to Democrats - Seems likely for Democrats to win Colorado, Oregon, Minnesota, and Maine. Iowa and New Hampshire might be possible too. There's also New York but I've heard the state senate gerrymander makes it unlikely?

Legislature flips to Republicans - I think they have shots in Alaska, Arkansas, and Kentucky.

Legislature flips to split - Don't see many chambers flipping outside of Michigan, Wisconsin (already split 16-16 in its senate following the recalls and more are coming up), and Indiana but I'm not familiar with these redistrictings. Were they redrawn anything like the maps for Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina that have likely given Republicans control for 10 years in those states?

What do you think? And what actually happens in Nebraska's non-partisan, unicameral legislature?

If Republicans couldnt even get close in the Kentucky House in the 2010 wave, they wont in 2012.  The New York State Senate still has a lot of Republicans in 55%+ Obama districts.  Jim Alesi just retired in a 55% Obama seat near Rochester and they have a couple of seats on Long Island and the NYC suburbs that will be very tough to hold as well.

[greenforest32]

Yeah, now that I look at the partisan distribution trend of the KY legislature, a 2012 flip does look unlikely: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Kentucky

I wasn't really sure about Arizona either. Was the 2000 census round of redistricting there heavily favored to Republicans (R-trifecta?) to the point that the maps the AZ redistricting commission passed gives Democrats a chance in either/both chambers this year?

[Mr.Phips]

Yeah, now that I look at the partisan distribution trend of the KY legislature, a 2012 flip does look unlikely: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Kentucky

I wasn't really sure about Arizona either. Was the 2000 census round of redistricting there heavily favored to Republicans (R-trifecta?) to the point that the maps the AZ redistricting commission passed gives Democrats a chance in either/both chambers this year?

Yes, this time, the commission picked the Dem leaning maps. 

[Senator Snowstalker]

Arkansas should be fine; the Democrats there aren't exactly progressive. Kentucky's split legislatures will both hold their respective houses, and Alaska currently has a strong Democratic advantage for whatever reason. The GOP overstretched in 2010, it seems. Democrats won't win the heavily gerrymandered New York State Senate, and will definitely win back Minnesota. PA's House could potentially flip, but like Phil I wouldn't count on it.

[greenforest32]

What about the Wisconsin House? What are the new state legislature maps like there?

[So the Heroes Fall]

As gerrymandered as the NY Senate is, there are more than just a couple seats the Republicans hold that on paper they really just shouldn't. The bigger problems for the Democrats there is that ID caucus, and that conservadem in the Bronx who just likes to troll his party and be like Joe Lieberman times ten.

The Minnesota GOP holds many seats not winnable in a non-wave year, the state party is broke, and their legislative leaders are less popular than Rick Scott and John Kasich are in their respective states. It's going to take a massive turnaround for them to hold.

[Gravis Marketing]

I don't think NH flips unless Obama's winning in a landslide.

[Mr.Phips]

I don't think NH flips unless Obama's winning in a landslide.

There are LOT of Republicans(probably close to 100) in New Hampshire that won only because they had an R after there name in 2010. 

[Mr.Phips]

As gerrymandered as the NY Senate is, there are more than just a couple seats the Republicans hold that on paper they really just shouldn't. The bigger problems for the Democrats there is that ID caucus, and that conservadem in the Bronx who just likes to troll his party and be like Joe Lieberman times ten.

The Alesi in the Rochester suburbs is 55% Obama and open.  Democrats will have a good chance to pick that up.  There is also SD-07 where the Republican only won by like 300 votes in 2010 and wasnt changed much in redistricting.  Then there is SD-38(?), where Greg Ball won by just 51%-49% in a GOP wave year and actually got bluer in redistricting.  Winning these three seats alone would get Democrats back to a 32-31 majority(since the GOP gave themselves a 63rd seat in redistricting).

[greenforest32]

This is like the first article in months covering the topic: http://www.governing.com/blogs/politics/gov-state-legislature-ratings.html

It's not that in-depth and their prediction map has a stupid layout but I guess it's something.

Never mind about the map, it was a plugin from my web browser messing things up

[Mr.Phips]

The 2010 elections really were do or die for Democrats.  Losing so many state legislatures likely means being in the minority in Congress and in most state legislatures for at least a generation.  That's what Democrats get when they elect a Democratic President who cares more about himself then the party. 

[So the Heroes Fall]

This is like the first article in months covering the topic: http://www.governing.com/blogs/politics/gov-state-legislature-ratings.html

It's not that in-depth and their prediction map has a stupid layout but I guess it's something.

Never mind about the map, it was a plugin from my web browser messing things up

They seem to be a bit too conservative in expecting incumbents to lose, at least in Minnesota. They're right that the House is more likely to flip than the Senate, but it's tough to see the GOP holding either. And the mention of redistricting is weird since the map was drawn by a court, population redistribution may help the Republicans a little, but they still hold too many seats that they really shouldn't be able to outside a wave year on paper.

[後援会]

Fun fact: after the Wisconsin recalls, the Wisconsin State Senate is currently controlled by Democrats.

However, the Republicans are fairly favored to take back the Senate before a Democrat majority Senate ever gets to actually convene.

[greenforest32]

The 2010 elections really were do or die for Democrats.  Losing so many state legislatures likely means being in the minority in Congress and in most state legislatures for at least a generation.  That's what Democrats get when they elect a Democratic President who cares more about himself then the party. 

I could see a decade but a generation? There's always the ability to break a gerrymander through split control such as electing a Governor from the opposing party. For example I think Pennsylvania/Michigan Republicans would lose quite a few seats in 2022 if a Democrat won the 2018 gubernatorial election(s) and vetoed the 2020 gerrymander till a court drew the map.

Do agree 2010 was quite painful for Democrats in redistricting. Ohio (if the redistricting initiative fails), North Carolina, Indiana (and probably Wisconsin) are a few new states out of reach due to the new maps.

[Mr.Phips]

The 2010 elections really were do or die for Democrats.  Losing so many state legislatures likely means being in the minority in Congress and in most state legislatures for at least a generation.  That's what Democrats get when they elect a Democratic President who cares more about himself then the party. 

I could see a decade but a generation? There's always the ability to break a gerrymander through split control such as electing a Governor from the opposing party. For example I think Pennsylvania/Michigan Republicans would lose quite a few seats in 2022 if a Democrat won the 2018 gubernatorial election(s) and vetoed the 2020 gerrymander till a court drew the map.

Do agree 2010 was quite painful for Democrats in redistricting. Ohio (if the redistricting initiative fails), North Carolina, Indiana (and probably Wisconsin) are a few new states out of reach due to the new maps.

The key to coming back in Ohio is to sweep the statewide offices in 2018, which would allow Democrats to get control of the reapportionment board and redraw the state legislative districts which would give them a good chance to control the state House and even the Senate for the first time since 1982. 

Wisconsin could be fixed by Democrats electing a governor in 2018.

All of the Republican governors elected in the 2010 wave will be term limited out in 2018, giving Democrats a chance to make big gains there just in time for the 2021 redistricting.  Democrats should hope that GOP President is elected in 2016 and becomes very unpopular in 2018. 

[greenforest32]

Another article on this though it's not as broad as that last one: http://www.pewstates.org/projects/stateline/headlines/democrats-seeking-comeback-in-state-legislatures-85899415634

Republicans also used the redistricting process — which follows the census every ten years — to try to solidify new majorities in Indiana, North Carolina, Michigan, New Hampshire and Wisconsin.

Were the New Hampshire maps like those other states' too?

[greenforest32]

http://www.pewstates.org/projects/stateline/headlines/arizona-conservatives-face-triple-threat-85899419570

09/26/2012

....

Part of Arizona Republicans’ problem—if you can call it that—is that they have nowhere to go but down.

Democrats did well in most places in 2008, but not Arizona. With favorite son John McCain leading the Republican national ticket, the party picked up seats in both the Arizona House and Senate. Soon after the election, Republican Jan Brewer replaced Democrat Janet Napolitano as governor, after Napolitano left for the Obama administration. In the Republican landslide two years later, the party expanded its edge even further, winning two-to-one majorities in both houses, even though there are only slightly more Republican voters than Democratic ones in the state.

Yet there’s more going on this year in Arizona than regression to the mean. In Arizona, a commission that includes two Democrats, two Republicans and one independent handles the once-a-decade process of redrawing legislative districts. Last year, Republicans in the legislature sparred repeatedly with the commission and its independent chair, Colleen Mathis. The legislature even removed Mathis from office—arguing that the commission had broken open meetings laws and drawn districts that violated state constitutional rules—only to have her reinstated by the Arizona Supreme Court. Ultimately, the legislature couldn’t block the commission’s maps.

Now, as the election comes into focus, it’s clear that Republicans had reason to be worried. House Speaker Andy Tobin said in August that he expects a majority of 34 to 38 seats, down from the party’s 40-20 edge today. Republicans currently hold the Senate 21-9, but Senate President Steve Pierce says the commission drew 13 Senate districts with clear Democratic registration pluralities. Still, both Republicans and Democrats expect the GOP to return with majorities in January.

I could see the state legislature flipping sometime this decade. I don't think 2012 will be the year but November could be surprising in Arizona. Republicans will lose their 2/3 super-majority at the least.

[greenforest32]

The answers so far: http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/statevote.aspx

Legislature flips to Democrats (5) - Colorado (H), Oregon (H), Minnesota (H, S), Maine (H, S), New York (S).

Legislature flips to Republicans (2, 3 if you count WI's recalls) - Alaska (S), Arkansas (H, S), Wisconsin (S).

Legislature flips to split (1) - New Hampshire (H).

Projected post-2012 results partisan control map:

[Benj]

Awesome, Minnesota flipped back! That means we won't see the anti-gay marriage amendment again in 2013 or 2014, when IMO it would have a much better chance of passing (due to different turnout models in off years).

Also, NY Senate is not at all certain yet. Democrats won one race by only 140 votes, so that might change. The Democrat who defeated David Storobin has threatened to caucus with Republicans if he doesn't get a bunch of pretty unreasonable socially conservative demands. Plus it's always possible to buy someone off, like the Republicans did with Pedro Espada and his cohorts a few years ago.