Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections?

[Mr.Phips]

Democrats take Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado, Maine, New Hampshire and Iowa, while Republicans take Alaska.  Democrats take the Michigan state House and possibly the New York State Senate as well.  Maybe the Arizona House for Democrats too. 

[Mr.Phips]

The current partisan control of state legislatures following the 2010, 2011 elections: http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/statevote-2011.aspx



Lots of gerrymanders have gone through but for shifts in control I could see:

Legislature flips to Democrats - Seems likely for Democrats to win Colorado, Oregon, Minnesota, and Maine. Iowa and New Hampshire might be possible too. There's also New York but I've heard the state senate gerrymander makes it unlikely?

Legislature flips to Republicans - I think they have shots in Alaska, Arkansas, and Kentucky.

Legislature flips to split - Don't see many chambers flipping outside of Michigan, Wisconsin (already split 16-16 in its senate following the recalls and more are coming up), and Indiana but I'm not familiar with these redistrictings. Were they redrawn anything like the maps for Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina that have likely given Republicans control for 10 years in those states?

What do you think? And what actually happens in Nebraska's non-partisan, unicameral legislature?

If Republicans couldnt even get close in the Kentucky House in the 2010 wave, they wont in 2012.  The New York State Senate still has a lot of Republicans in 55%+ Obama districts.  Jim Alesi just retired in a 55% Obama seat near Rochester and they have a couple of seats on Long Island and the NYC suburbs that will be very tough to hold as well.

[Mr.Phips]

Yeah, now that I look at the partisan distribution trend of the KY legislature, a 2012 flip does look unlikely: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Kentucky

I wasn't really sure about Arizona either. Was the 2000 census round of redistricting there heavily favored to Republicans (R-trifecta?) to the point that the maps the AZ redistricting commission passed gives Democrats a chance in either/both chambers this year?

Yes, this time, the commission picked the Dem leaning maps. 

[Mr.Phips]

I don't think NH flips unless Obama's winning in a landslide.

There are LOT of Republicans(probably close to 100) in New Hampshire that won only because they had an R after there name in 2010. 

[Mr.Phips]

As gerrymandered as the NY Senate is, there are more than just a couple seats the Republicans hold that on paper they really just shouldn't. The bigger problems for the Democrats there is that ID caucus, and that conservadem in the Bronx who just likes to troll his party and be like Joe Lieberman times ten.

The Alesi in the Rochester suburbs is 55% Obama and open.  Democrats will have a good chance to pick that up.  There is also SD-07 where the Republican only won by like 300 votes in 2010 and wasnt changed much in redistricting.  Then there is SD-38(?), where Greg Ball won by just 51%-49% in a GOP wave year and actually got bluer in redistricting.  Winning these three seats alone would get Democrats back to a 32-31 majority(since the GOP gave themselves a 63rd seat in redistricting).

[Mr.Phips]

The 2010 elections really were do or die for Democrats.  Losing so many state legislatures likely means being in the minority in Congress and in most state legislatures for at least a generation.  That's what Democrats get when they elect a Democratic President who cares more about himself then the party. 

[Mr.Phips]

The 2010 elections really were do or die for Democrats.  Losing so many state legislatures likely means being in the minority in Congress and in most state legislatures for at least a generation.  That's what Democrats get when they elect a Democratic President who cares more about himself then the party. 

I could see a decade but a generation? There's always the ability to break a gerrymander through split control such as electing a Governor from the opposing party. For example I think Pennsylvania/Michigan Republicans would lose quite a few seats in 2022 if a Democrat won the 2018 gubernatorial election(s) and vetoed the 2020 gerrymander till a court drew the map.

Do agree 2010 was quite painful for Democrats in redistricting. Ohio (if the redistricting initiative fails), North Carolina, Indiana (and probably Wisconsin) are a few new states out of reach due to the new maps.

The key to coming back in Ohio is to sweep the statewide offices in 2018, which would allow Democrats to get control of the reapportionment board and redraw the state legislative districts which would give them a good chance to control the state House and even the Senate for the first time since 1982. 

Wisconsin could be fixed by Democrats electing a governor in 2018.

All of the Republican governors elected in the 2010 wave will be term limited out in 2018, giving Democrats a chance to make big gains there just in time for the 2021 redistricting.  Democrats should hope that GOP President is elected in 2016 and becomes very unpopular in 2018. 

[Mr.Phips]

Awesome, Minnesota flipped back! That means we won't see the anti-gay marriage amendment again in 2013 or 2014, when IMO it would have a much better chance of passing (due to different turnout models in off years).

Also, NY Senate is not at all certain yet. Democrats won one race by only 140 votes, so that might change. The Democrat who defeated David Storobin has threatened to caucus with Republicans if he doesn't get a bunch of pretty unreasonable socially conservative demands. Plus it's always possible to buy someone off, like the Republicans did with Pedro Espada and his cohorts a few years ago.

Absentees usually favor Democrats in most parts of New York, so I am thinking thte Democrat will probably win that Albany area seat.

This just shows that there is only so much gerrymandering you can do to protect your majority.  Democrats saw the same exact problem in Arkansas.