Which state legislatures will flip control in the 2012 elections?

[greenforest32]

The current partisan control of state legislatures following the 2010, 2011 elections: http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/statevote-2011.aspx



Lots of gerrymanders have gone through but for shifts in control I could see:

Legislature flips to Democrats - Seems likely for Democrats to win Colorado, Oregon, Minnesota, and Maine. Iowa and New Hampshire might be possible too. There's also New York but I've heard the state senate gerrymander makes it unlikely?

Legislature flips to Republicans - I think they have shots in Alaska, Arkansas, and Kentucky.

Legislature flips to split - Don't see many chambers flipping outside of Michigan, Wisconsin (already split 16-16 in its senate following the recalls and more are coming up), and Indiana but I'm not familiar with these redistrictings. Were they redrawn anything like the maps for Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina that have likely given Republicans control for 10 years in those states?

What do you think? And what actually happens in Nebraska's non-partisan, unicameral legislature?

[greenforest32]

Yeah, now that I look at the partisan distribution trend of the KY legislature, a 2012 flip does look unlikely: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Kentucky

I wasn't really sure about Arizona either. Was the 2000 census round of redistricting there heavily favored to Republicans (R-trifecta?) to the point that the maps the AZ redistricting commission passed gives Democrats a chance in either/both chambers this year?

[greenforest32]

What about the Wisconsin House? What are the new state legislature maps like there?

[greenforest32]

This is like the first article in months covering the topic: http://www.governing.com/blogs/politics/gov-state-legislature-ratings.html

It's not that in-depth and their prediction map has a stupid layout but I guess it's something.

Never mind about the map, it was a plugin from my web browser messing things up

[greenforest32]

The 2010 elections really were do or die for Democrats.  Losing so many state legislatures likely means being in the minority in Congress and in most state legislatures for at least a generation.  That's what Democrats get when they elect a Democratic President who cares more about himself then the party. 

I could see a decade but a generation? There's always the ability to break a gerrymander through split control such as electing a Governor from the opposing party. For example I think Pennsylvania/Michigan Republicans would lose quite a few seats in 2022 if a Democrat won the 2018 gubernatorial election(s) and vetoed the 2020 gerrymander till a court drew the map.

Do agree 2010 was quite painful for Democrats in redistricting. Ohio (if the redistricting initiative fails), North Carolina, Indiana (and probably Wisconsin) are a few new states out of reach due to the new maps.

[greenforest32]

Another article on this though it's not as broad as that last one: http://www.pewstates.org/projects/stateline/headlines/democrats-seeking-comeback-in-state-legislatures-85899415634

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Were the New Hampshire maps like those other states' too?

[greenforest32]

http://www.pewstates.org/projects/stateline/headlines/arizona-conservatives-face-triple-threat-85899419570

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I could see the state legislature flipping sometime this decade. I don't think 2012 will be the year but November could be surprising in Arizona. Republicans will lose their 2/3 super-majority at the least.

[greenforest32]

The answers so far: http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/statevote.aspx

Legislature flips to Democrats (5) - Colorado (H), Oregon (H), Minnesota (H, S), Maine (H, S), New York (S).

Legislature flips to Republicans (2, 3 if you count WI's recalls) - Alaska (S), Arkansas (H, S), Wisconsin (S).

Legislature flips to split (1) - New Hampshire (H).

Projected post-2012 results partisan control map:

[greenforest32]

Awesome, Minnesota flipped back! That means we won't see the anti-gay marriage amendment again in 2013 or 2014, when IMO it would have a much better chance of passing (due to different turnout models in off years).

Also, NY Senate is not at all certain yet. Democrats won one race by only 140 votes, so that might change. The Democrat who defeated David Storobin has threatened to caucus with Republicans if he doesn't get a bunch of pretty unreasonable socially conservative demands. Plus it's always possible to buy someone off, like the Republicans did with Pedro Espada and his cohorts a few years ago.

Yeah I've never understood the appeal for the continuation of the cross-chamber (D-House, R-Senate) gerrymander in New York. Cuomo's probably not happy with a Democratic legislature either after that redistricting 'compromise'.

[greenforest32]

Wow it looks like California Democrats hit the 2/3 super-majority in both chambers: http://abclocal.go.com/kabc/story?section=news/politics&id=8877762

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It'll be even worse for California Republicans when that election-day registration bill kicks in in 2016.