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| |-+  2012 Elections (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | |-+  www.electoral-vote.com has a new site
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Author Topic: www.electoral-vote.com has a new site  (Read 901 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: May 29, 2012, 08:35:34 am »
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and they also started their daily updates and have an updated EV map:

http://www.electoral-vote.com
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: May 29, 2012, 08:41:21 am »
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They have about the same map as I have:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=145625.msg3307426#msg3307426

The only difference is CO, where they have a tie because of the Purple poll - whereas I used an average of the PPP poll and the Purple poll (they were conducted at about the same period).
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billbillerson
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« Reply #2 on: May 29, 2012, 10:21:26 am »
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yeah ok, Romney is going to do better in Oregon than Ohio. Solid polls there.
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« Reply #3 on: May 29, 2012, 11:34:41 am »
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I don't really like the new layout.  I have a 1366px screen and I have the page in almost HTML format instead of Java (everything on the left side of the screen).  I can't hover over any states to get the latest polls, instead i have to click on each individual state to get the polls.  I don't know what I need to do to get the page to look normal and more readable, or if I'm just left out.
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My earlier comment notwithstanding, I do think that the site would be better off if Inks left his position. (The fact that the village idiot has dropped in to express his support for him only confirms this.)
Iron King SJoyce
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« Reply #4 on: May 29, 2012, 07:01:57 pm »
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I love how they call Connie Mack (in their Senate polls) Connie McGillicuddy (full name: Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV).
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Bushie Likes to Throw Money Around
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« Reply #5 on: May 29, 2012, 07:05:21 pm »
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I love how they call Connie Mack (in their Senate polls) Connie McGillicuddy (full name: Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV).

I had no idea that was his real name (thank you, Wikipedia). I'm kind of surprised he doesn't just legally change it to Mack.
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This may come as a surprise, but I do have a strong head on my shoulders and I am very cognizant of what's going on around me.

It wouldn't come as a surprise. It would come as an M. Night Shyamalan-in-his-prime plot twist.
Iron King SJoyce
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« Reply #6 on: May 29, 2012, 07:11:50 pm »
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I love how they call Connie Mack (in their Senate polls) Connie McGillicuddy (full name: Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV).

I had no idea that was his real name (thank you, Wikipedia). I'm kind of surprised he doesn't just legally change it to Mack.

Pretty sure if he changed it to Mack, he couldn't be Connie Mack IV, because he hasn't had parents/grandparents/great-grandparents named Connie Mack (they were all Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy).
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #7 on: May 30, 2012, 01:04:48 am »
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I don't really like the new layout.  I have a 1366px screen and I have the page in almost HTML format instead of Java (everything on the left side of the screen).  I can't hover over any states to get the latest polls, instead i have to click on each individual state to get the polls.  I don't know what I need to do to get the page to look normal and more readable, or if I'm just left out.
Had the same problem with Internet Explorer 9. It returned to look normal when I clicked on compatibility mode (the "broken paper" icon in the search/address bar).
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Nagas
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« Reply #8 on: May 30, 2012, 03:24:06 am »
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yeah ok, Romney is going to do better in Oregon than Ohio. Solid polls there.

The outliers get flushed out by the time the conventions role around.

EV has been one of my favorite sites. The change looks great!
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President von Cat
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« Reply #9 on: May 30, 2012, 03:43:25 am »
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I'm not familiar with the site, but was it accurate for 2008?

This map seems very pro-Obama, but in a bizarre sort of way. Oregon is barely Democrat, while Ohio is lean?
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It makes me happy Republicans will never be able to say they defeated Obama. Never ever.
Nagas
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« Reply #10 on: May 30, 2012, 03:48:50 am »
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I'm not familiar with the site, but was it accurate for 2008?

He missed Indiana and had Missouri tied on election night in 2008. So 49/51 (or 50/51 if you did count MO as essentially a tie Tongue)
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This map seems very pro-Obama, but in a bizarre sort of way. Oregon is barely Democrat, while Ohio is lean?

He aggregates polls, and has developed his own model. In 2004, there was a poll that gave Kerry a minuscule 2% lead in CA but he put it in regardless. The outlier polls tend to disappear or get averaged out as the frequency of polls increases in the fall. 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #11 on: May 30, 2012, 03:58:03 am »
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I'm not familiar with the site, but was it accurate for 2008?

The site was created about 9 years ago ahead of the 2004 election. They are basically doing what we do here: Posting the latest polls for each state and creating a Electoral Map (sometimes averaging the latest polls if multiple polls have been conducted over the same time period).

In 2004, they predicted Kerry 262, Bush 261 (their final report on Nov. 2):

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/nov/nov02.html

In 2008, the predicted Obama 353, McCain 174 and Missouri tied. And they only got IN wrong, but of course within the MoE:

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Nov04.html

This map seems very pro-Obama, but in a bizarre sort of way. Oregon is barely Democrat, while Ohio is lean?

This is because SurveyUSA had OR as Obama+4 in their last poll, while Marist had Obama up 6 in their last OH poll.
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