Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 29, 2014, 01:39:29 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2012 Elections (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | |-+  Poll chat and adjustments
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Poll chat and adjustments  (Read 247 times)
Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27165
United States


View Profile
« on: May 30, 2012, 03:52:05 pm »
Ignore

Nate Silver has an interesting article which you may have missed from 2010, where he explains per his regression analysis how converts polls of all adults, registered voters and likely voters into an apple to apples comparison (Dems do 7 points better with all adult polls, and 4 points better with registered voters).  The Rasmussen "house effect" is 2 to 3 points. He also says PVI isn't as good as party identification. I just thought that you poll junkies might be interested. Whether the same adjustment percentages obtain this year, is of course an issue.

« Last Edit: May 30, 2012, 03:54:02 pm by Torie »Logged
Minnesota Mike
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 481


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: May 30, 2012, 06:09:53 pm »
Ignore

But presidential election years are different than than non presidential years. The higher turnout in presidential years would seem likely to me to narrow the difference between Likely Voter and Registered Voter polls.
Logged
NVGonzalez
antwnzrr
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1753
Mexico


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: May 31, 2012, 02:07:13 am »
Ignore

Also this may be somewhat off-topic but I think it is a good idea to not only look at the party sample but also at the demographic sample. For example the Florida poll that came out recently while it had Democrats over sampled so were seniors.
Logged




Bernie would probably win Vermont if Obama were deemed to have more than 272 evs in the vag.
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines