Does Obama have a "built-in" electoral college advantage?

[Nichlemn]

A lot has been made of the fact that Obama seems to be be doing a fair bit better in swing states than nationally. From this some people have inferred that he has some an "electoral college advantage".

This may be the case, but we've yet to see much evidence that Obama is doing unusually poorly in safe states (favouring either party). Hence, I think there's a good chance that at least one type of polling is consistently biased - there's a strong chance that Obama is actually doing better nationally than the polls say, and there's also a strong chance that he is doing worse in swing states than the polls say, more than if the two were in alignment.

[timothyinMD]

I don't think so.   The national popular vote is about dead even in all the polls, and the national popular vote is "Democrat skewed" supposedly, since the larger states are more Democrat.  If the popular vote is dead even then Romney would probably have the E.C. edge.

Time will tell

[Kevin]

Obama's advantage is that he is an incumbent who has been fortified with a strong national organization and loads of money; alot of which exists from 2008.

I bed to differ on the "he is doing better in swing states" part. The only reason he is ahead in many swing states like NV, CO, OH, etc is due to the fact that his opponent is still an unknown quality to voters/hasn't built himself up at the present time; to chip into Obama's state by state polling advantage. As summer goes on things will continue to tighten dramatically both nationally and in the swing states.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Except things already are pretty tight. Romney's at a good spot right now.

[GLPman]

Obama's advantage is that he is an incumbent who has been fortified with a strong national organization and loads of money; alot of which exists from 2008.

I bed to differ on the "he is doing better in swing states" part. The only reason he is ahead in many swing states like NV, CO, OH, etc is due to the fact that his opponent is still an unknown quality to voters/hasn't built himself up at the present time; to chip into Obama's state by state polling advantage. As summer goes on things will continue to tighten dramatically both nationally and in the swing states.

This is a good summary. As a somewhat popular incumbent, of course Obama has an advantage. It's also worth pointing out that this "advantage" could fade away or grow stronger. I fail to see how anyone could make a successful argument for Romney having a "built-in" electoral college advantage.

[Kevin]

Obama's advantage is that he is an incumbent who has been fortified with a strong national organization and loads of money; alot of which exists from 2008.

I bed to differ on the "he is doing better in swing states" part. The only reason he is ahead in many swing states like NV, CO, OH, etc is due to the fact that his opponent is still an unknown quality to voters/hasn't built himself up at the present time; to chip into Obama's state by state polling advantage. As summer goes on things will continue to tighten dramatically both nationally and in the swing states.

This is a good summary. As a somewhat popular incumbent, of course Obama has an advantage. It's also worth pointing out that this "advantage" could fade away or grow stronger. I fail to see how anyone could make a successful argument for Romney having a "built-in" electoral college advantage.

Well I wouldn't say Obama's even "somewhat popular" since on the whole he is really not. However, you don't need to be popular to win reelection(see GW 2004) or (Truman 47) if you want an example of this.

Your right in saying the advantage could grow. although with the way the economy is trending that's unlikely at the moment IMO. If it cont. to stabilize or experiences a strong sudden upswing over the summer that could also change.

The one advantage I see Romney having electorally is that the sweeping Obama win in 2008 that brought in such solidly GOP/Republican leaning states like IN, NC, and maybe NH/VA/FL will not be reduplicated in my opinion. I honestly think that this election will come down like it has in 2004/2008 to states like OH, PA, MI, WI, IA, and NV/CO. If ether candidate can win a combination of those then they have won the Presidency. As I think given the situation he is facing Obama is not likely to win the states that he won in 2008 like VA, NC, IN, or FL despite whatever the polls may say as a repeat of what I said above. Let is he going to win places like AZ, MO, or GA, which some on here have been speculating that he could do.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Here's the 2012 map with a uniform swing to a tied popular vote (60% shown as 70% and 40% as 30% for better contrast):

Obama:272
Romney:266

Note that not only do the Republican have far more votes wasted in states where in a tied election they get >60% of the vote (10 to 3), they also have 2 states they win by a plurality (Ohio and Virginia) while the Democrats have none.

Granted, the swing won't be uniform, but, yes Obama has a small built in advantage.  It would have been even greater without reapportionment as then the EV result for this map would have been 278-260.

[Devils30]

The GOP "wastes" a lot of states as well. With places like WV, AR, KY on their way to becoming 60-40 GOP and the margins throughout the interior west and south give the GOP just as many wasted votes or more as the Dems get in Cali, NY, Illinois

[Kevin]

The GOP "wastes" a lot of states as well. With places like WV, AR, KY on their way to becoming 60-40 GOP and the margins throughout the interior west and south give the GOP just as many wasted votes or more as the Dems get in Cali, NY, Illinois

What do you mean? Explain?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Long answer yes with an 'if' and short answer no with 'but'...