State of the race
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Author Topic: State of the race  (Read 4909 times)
Fritz
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« on: June 01, 2012, 03:16:57 PM »

This is how I see the race right now.  Comments welcomed.

Safe Obama: 201 (16 states + DC)
Likely Obama: 46 (MI, PA, WI)
Lean Obama: 15 (CO, NV)
Barely Obama: 41 (OH, IA, NH, VA)
Barely Romney: 29 (FL)
Lean Romney: 15 (NC)
Likely Romney: 21 (AZ, MO)
Safe Romney: 170 (21 states)


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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #1 on: June 01, 2012, 03:25:34 PM »

A few changes I would make to your map.

Ohio and New Hampshire – Barely Romney
Virginia and Iowa are close to Barely Romney, but I’m going to give Obama the benefit of the doubt in these states.
Move Wisconsin from Lean Obama to Barely Obama.
Nevada and Colorado move to Barely Obama.   They are going to be significantly closer than expected.
Move Missouri to Lean Romney from Likely Romney.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #2 on: June 01, 2012, 03:36:26 PM »

A few changes I would make to your map.

Ohio and New Hampshire – Barely Romney
Virginia and Iowa are close to Barely Romney, but I’m going to give Obama the benefit of the doubt in these states.
Why?
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #3 on: June 01, 2012, 03:41:19 PM »

New Hampshire, Iowa - Barely Lean Obama
Wisconsin - Likely Lean Obama
Pennsylvania - Likely Safe Obama
North Carolina - Lean Barely Romney
Missouri - Likely Lean Romney
Nevada - Lean Barely Obama
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #4 on: June 01, 2012, 03:45:51 PM »

New Hampshire, Iowa - Barely Lean Obama
Wisconsin - Likely Lean Obama
Pennsylvania - Likely Safe Obama
North Carolina - Lean Barely Romney
Missouri - Likely Lean Romney
Nevada - Lean Barely Obama

I could go with that, except I think Romney will take New Hampshire due to hometown appeal.
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cavalcade
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« Reply #5 on: June 01, 2012, 04:02:22 PM »

Virginia and Ohio are lean Obama.
Switch FL and NC.
MO is either lean or barely Romney.
CO is barely Obama.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #6 on: June 01, 2012, 05:58:13 PM »

I don't see how a state that voted for Obama would be safe Romney now.
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Boris
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« Reply #7 on: June 01, 2012, 06:36:11 PM »

The numbers point to Obama +2-3 nationally right now, which means he would lose at least both NC and IN if the election were held today.
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WhyteRain
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« Reply #8 on: June 01, 2012, 08:09:47 PM »





I just wanted to put up the maps of the results for the last two incumbent U.S. presidents whose economic performances in office were comparable to Obama's.  Just to bring a bit of reality to the discussion.

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Donerail
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« Reply #9 on: June 01, 2012, 08:18:02 PM »

I'd think a map of, say, Bush I or Ford would be more applicable than Carter or Hoover.
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #10 on: June 01, 2012, 08:20:40 PM »
« Edited: June 01, 2012, 08:27:16 PM by Lt. Governor NVGonzalez »

New Hampshire, Iowa - Barely Lean Obama
Wisconsin - Likely Lean Obama
North Carolina - Lean Barely Romney
Missouri - Likely Lean Romney
Indiana - Safe Likely Romney
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #11 on: June 01, 2012, 08:25:10 PM »





I just wanted to put up the maps of the results for the last two incumbent U.S. presidents whose economic performances in office were comparable to Obama's.  Just to bring a bit of reality to the discussion.



No
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #12 on: June 01, 2012, 09:10:45 PM »





I just wanted to put up the maps of the results for the last two incumbent U.S. presidents whose economic performances in office were comparable to Obama's.  Just to bring a bit of reality to the discussion.



lolwut.
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #13 on: June 01, 2012, 09:17:50 PM »





I just wanted to put up the maps of the results for the last two incumbent U.S. presidents whose economic performances in office were comparable to Obama's.  Just to bring a bit of reality to the discussion.

Uh, for now more like



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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
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« Reply #14 on: June 01, 2012, 09:41:56 PM »





I just wanted to put up the maps of the results for the last two incumbent U.S. presidents whose economic performances in office were comparable to Obama's.  Just to bring a bit of reality to the discussion.

lolwut.

The hilarious thing is that Carter had the best job growth in the last 40 years or so.
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #15 on: June 01, 2012, 09:45:23 PM »

The hilarious thing is that Carter had the best job growth in the last 40 years or so.

Uh, there was a severe recession in 1975-1976 which the economy was recovering from when he took office; if you take out 1977 Carter's job numbers were consistently terrible.

(Before anyone goes all "U REPUBLICAN HACK" on me I'll point out that I actually prefer Carter to Reagan, or at least first-term Carter...)
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Beet
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« Reply #16 on: June 01, 2012, 10:04:04 PM »

Actually the economy had fully recovered from the 1973-75 recession in jobs terms by February 1976. Carter's job creation numbers were consistently good until late 1979, when Paul Volcker took over the Federal Reserve.
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tpfkaw
wormyguy
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« Reply #17 on: June 01, 2012, 10:19:32 PM »
« Edited: June 01, 2012, 10:36:04 PM by red's wet dream »

Actually the economy had fully recovered from the 1973-75 recession in jobs terms by February 1976.

Actually, the unemployment rate didn't reach its 1973 low of 4.6% again until 1997.
 
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The unemployment rate was already increasing prior to Volcker becoming Fed chairman and only started dramatically increasing in mid-1980.

Edit: Furthermore, more than half the jobs created during the period of the Carter administration's budgets (Sept. 1977 to Sept. 1981) were created during the period of the FY 1978 budget.  (If we're giving FY 1977 to Carter that's rather inconsistent with giving Bush FY 2009's deficit and job losses, as liberals are wont to do).
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #18 on: June 01, 2012, 11:02:31 PM »

So for all you armchair economists out there: what's going to happen next? Are we in for a double dip or is this a temporary bump?
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tpfkaw
wormyguy
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« Reply #19 on: June 02, 2012, 12:05:43 AM »

So for all you armchair economists out there: what's going to happen next? Are we in for a double dip or is this a temporary bump?

I don't see any resolution to the Europe crisis that'll satisfy the credit markets, so I think we're going to see a double dip.  Possible we're already in one, given the recent jobs data.
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HappyWarrior
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« Reply #20 on: June 02, 2012, 12:25:08 AM »





I just wanted to put up the maps of the results for the last two incumbent U.S. presidents whose economic performances in office were comparable to Obama's.  Just to bring a bit of reality to the discussion.



Actually the last two Presidents to come into major recessions or depressions handed off by predecessors looked like this:





And job growth for both wasn't any better for them than it was for Obama.
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Beet
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« Reply #21 on: June 02, 2012, 12:59:48 AM »

Actually the economy had fully recovered from the 1973-75 recession in jobs terms by February 1976.

Actually, the unemployment rate didn't reach its 1973 low of 4.6% again until 1997.

No need to get snippy. It's just that the absolute number of jobs in February 1976 exceeded its pre-recession high.

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The unemployment rate was already increasing prior to Volcker becoming Fed chairman and only started dramatically increasing in mid-1980.

Edit: Furthermore, more than half the jobs created during the period of the Carter administration's budgets (Sept. 1977 to Sept. 1981) were created during the period of the FY 1978 budget.  (If we're giving FY 1977 to Carter that's rather inconsistent with giving Bush FY 2009's deficit and job losses, as liberals are wont to do).
[/quote]

If we're giving FY 2009 to Bush in jobs, Obama has already created millions of jobs. I'm alright with that Tongue

I am only looking at total jobs numbers to take out participation effects. Yes, a recession started in early 1980. Volcker, cravenly using the Fed for political purposes, temporarily reversed his own policy in an attempt to help get Carter re-elected. This ended the 1980 recession but failed to achieve its goal. When Reagan took office, Volcker resumed his policy, resulting in the 1981-82 recession.
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #22 on: June 02, 2012, 01:50:48 AM »

So for all you armchair economists out there: what's going to happen next? Are we in for a double dip or is this a temporary bump?

I don't see any resolution to the Europe crisis that'll satisfy the credit markets, so I think we're going to see a double dip.  Possible we're already in one, given the recent jobs data.

Oh, I really didn't want to hear that. Maybe you're right, but maybe you're not. Our economy has slowly recovered over the past several years as Europe has continued to falter. If anything, I think (I hope) that Europe will cut our economic growth, but it won't stamp it out.

In the 80s, Europe continued to suffer from high unemployment several years after our recovery took hold, so maybe it's a similar situation.

Things (as usual) will be bad this summer. We'll see weak jobs numbers (but not negative jobs numbers ) and Romney might open up a lead of Obama. But I expect that by September, the fear will have subsided and we'll begin to see better economic signs. And then Obama will open up a lead.
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #23 on: June 02, 2012, 02:01:37 AM »

I'll admit, my last post may be wishful thinking, but it wouldn't be too different from what happened last summer

Honestly, I can live with an Obama defeat by a qualified candidate. But I won't be able to stomach a guy like Mitt Romney being in the right place at the right time this year, if the economy double dips, and becoming president. America can do better than him.

But hey, voters have short memories! Some good jobs numbers this fall and a great Obama campaign, which could certainly happen, would give Obama an easy victory. And we forget that the election truly starts after the conventions.
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jfern
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« Reply #24 on: June 02, 2012, 03:44:26 PM »

This is what happened the last time a President ran for re-election with job numbers worse than Obama's.

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