French Legislative Elections 2012: Official Results Thread

[JulioMadrid]

Creuse 1re

PS 44.4
UMP 33.8
FN 7.7
FG 7.5

[Sibboleth]

Any other sites with results other than the interior ministry?

[JulioMadrid]

Any other sites with results other than the interior ministry?

http://www.google.com/elections/ed/fr/results

And Lozere results are bad news for PS, aren't they?

[big bad fab]

PS dissident ahead of EE-LV in Côtes d'Armor 4th. YES !

As for national results, unfortunately, I'm afraid I'll be right

[Andrea]

Frédéric Cuvillier apparently re-elected with 50.66% in Pas de Calais.

[Andrea]

Alpes Haute Provence I
PS 33.04% UMP 23.68% FN 16.57 (eliminated) FG 9.83

Alpes Haute Provence II
PS 35.76% UMP 29.77% FN 15.25 (eliminated) FG 9.37

[Vasall des Midas]

Basses-Alpes

1st: PS 33.1, UMP 23.7, FN 16.7 (out)
2nd: PS 35.8, UMP 29.8, FN 15.5 (out)

Ninja'd. I can add that the 2nd is listed only as "favored" in Hash's map.

[Beet]

What does it mean "ninja'd"?

So basically, 12.5 gets FN to the second round, or is it higher than that?

[Sibboleth]

Just spotted that Le Monde has a map with twitter things for each constituency. If anyone wants to go through mountains of rumours and so on.

[Vasall des Midas]

What does it mean "ninja'd"?

So basically, 12.5 gets FN to the second round, or is it higher than that?

12.5% of registered voters gets a third (or lower) placed candidate to the runoff. With ~57% turnout, expect few triangulaires.

[Vasall des Midas]

Ariege is in, but that's boring. One Socialist elected in the first round, the other going into the runoff with a twenty point lead and FN and FG essentially tied for third.

[Vasall des Midas]

And just to prove my point, Aube reports and has a triangulaire in the 1st constituency.

UMP leading everywhere though, and that FN candidate that forced himself into the 2nd round came 3rd (with 25%). Oh, and his name is "Subtil". Lol.

Two safe PS seats in Gers, one of them won in the first round.

[Andrea]

PS first round win in Gers I

Looking good for Stéphane Le Foll: around 15 points ahead of UMP
René Dosière is ahead in Aisne I: 29.11 vs 26.5 for Nouveau centre and 21,47 for PS official man.

[Andrea]

Vosges II

Jack Lang 37.5%
UMP 35.35%
FN 17.34% (eliminated)

[Sibboleth]

Mélenchon eliminated apparently. But then my French is less than entirely wonderful, so misreading possible.

[You kip if you want to...]

Mélenchon eliminated apparently. But then my French is less than entirely wonderful, so misreading possible.

He's "jette l'eponge" as Huffington Post puts it. Assuming that's the French way of saying he's thrown in the towel.

[Andrea]

 Philippe Vigier (NCE) re-elected in Eure et Loir IV
FN eliminated in the other Eure-et-Loir constituencies. So the chances of a PS gain seems to go away with it.

[Vasall des Midas]

Côtes-d’Armor
2007: 4 PS, 1 UMP
 
1st (Saint-Brieuc, PS^): This seat, which takes in Saint-Brieuc and adjacent cantons (including the former PCF working-class base of Ploufragan) has been held by the PS’ Danielle Bousquet since 1997. Bousquet, who won reelection with 57.7% in 2007, is retiring this year. Her successor will be Michel Lesage, the PS mayor/general councillor of Langueux. The only non-Socialist who could have made this race less boring is Bruno Joncour, the MoDem mayor of Saint-Brieuc who has a strong personal vote (iirc, he won reelection in 2008 by defeating Bousquet, after a fairly flukeish win in 2001). He isn’t running, so the UMP’s candidate – some local councillor in Saint-Brieuc, will be crushed in typical fashion in the second-safest leftie seat in the 22. Hollande won 61.4% of the vote on May 6.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

Lesage 46.7, UMP 25.2. Prediction: Correct.

2nd (Dinan, PS^): This is Charles Josselin’s old seat, who managed to hang on even in 1993. Since he retired in 2002, Jean Gaubert has been the seat’s holder. He narrowly defeated Michel Vaspart, the UMP mayor of Pleudihen and general councillor, in 2002 and beat Vaspart by a much larger margin in the 2007 runoff (54.7%). The right has some footholds in the constituency, Sarkozy even won the canton of Pléneuf-Val-André on May 6, but Flamby won 54.8% of the vote overall in the constituency that day. Gaubert is retiring, to be succeeded by the PS mayor of Plancoët, while Vaspart hopes that the third time is the charm. Despite the strong local base of the UMP duo (Vaspart’s suppléeant is CG for Pléneuf-Val-André), the left will win easily.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

42.4 - 27.2, so, yeah.
 

3rd (Loudéac/Lamballe, UMP): This is the only blue seat in the department, held by Marc Le Fur, the vice-president of the National Assembly, since 2002. Le Fur (UMP) was defeated by the PS’ Didier Chouat in 1997 but beat Chouat easily in 2002 (52.7%). In 2007, he did extremely well in the first round, taking 48%, but won reelection with a mediocre 52% in the second round against Loïc Cauret, the PS mayor of the leftie blue-collar city of Lamballe. Le Fur has some amount of personal appeal in this constituency, which went to Ségogo in 2007 and gave 55.7% to Hollande in 2012. Certainly he played a role in helping the right reconquer a number of cantons in the CG between 2004 and 2011, but it is doubtful whether Le Fur can survive what seems to be a little pink wavelet. In any case, the contest features a rematch between Cauret and Le Fur.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with left edge (potential GAIN)

Le Fur 46.6, Cauret 37.9. Le Fur should hold.
 

4th (Guingamp/Trégor-Cornouaille, PS^): This seat, which englobes the quasi-entirety of the Red Belt of central Brittany, is ridiculously left-wing. Hollande won 65.7% of the vote here, taking over 60% in every single canton in this constituency. The seat elected a right-winger in 1993, but prior to that and since then it has been solidly left-wing. The PCF has retained a significant presence – Mélenchon won 15.4% - and won the seat twice, in 1978 and most recently in 1997 with Félix Leyzour. In 2002, Leyzour retired and the PCF’s Gérard Lahellec won only 15.8% of the vote and placed fourth, behind eventual PS winner Marie-Renée Oget and two right-wingers. Oget won 55.8% of the vote in the runoff, and in 2007 she took 63% in the runoff. Lahellec won 12.5% and third place in the first round. This is a solid leftie seat, and hell will freeze over before the right wins it in this climate.
 
However, the retirement of Oget and the PS-EELV deal has opened a nice little fraternal war on the left. This is a constituency conceded by Solférino to the Greenies, who finally nominated a local guy (Michel Balbot) rather than one Guy Hascoët (former Green deputy for the Nord and cabinet minister under Jospin, who has just rediscovered his native region). However, as always, Solférino’s deal with the Greenies didn’t go down well with the local PS. In dissidence, local Socialists are backing the PS mayor of Guingamp, Annie Le Houérou. On the other hand, given the FG’s momentum keeping up for now and Lahellec – who is running for a third shot – still holding a pretty strong base, it would also be foolish to count out the FG. We thus have a nice leftie sh**tfest, with a Greenie who is endorsed by Solférino, a dissident locally implanted Socialist with local PS endorsements, and a Commie who has a solid base. What happens in this case is anyone’s guess, but there is a nice chance that the right will be out by the first round or that the numbers could give a triangulaire. I think whichever one of Balbot, Le Houérou or Lahellec imposes him-herself as the leftie contender will win easily. But I can’t say which one of those three it will be (but my gut is pessimistic about EELV’s real chances).
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left (EELV/DVG/FG-PCF tossup)

Le Houérou. By oh so much. 32.0% vs 18.3% for UMP, 16.6% Commie, just 12.4% Green. This wasn't far off the right going out by round one (UMP under 12.5% of registered voters).
 

5th (Lannion/Côte de granit rose/Trégor, PS): This is a solidly left-wing constituency, held by the PS since 1997. In 2007, Corinne Erhel had no trouble in succeeding Alain Gouriou. She won with a big 56.1% in the runoff, and in May Hollande took 59.3%. The UMP has some dwindling strength in coastal resort-type places like Perros-Guirec or Étables-sur-Mer (Sarko won the canton narrowly), but the main city – Lannion – is a PS stronghold (69% for Hollande in the canton) and other coastal cantons such as Plouha, Paimpol or Tréguier are fairly left-leaning nowadays. The right has conceded, the UMP putting up its departmental boss. It appears as if the centrist-Radical mayor of Paimpol, Jean-Yves de Chaisemartin, who had run in 2007 for the MoDem will not be running this year. He would probably have been a more high calibre guy than the UMP’s sacrificial lamb.
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: safe left

46.2 to 26.0. So, yeah.

[You kip if you want to...]

Disgusting to hear that Marine's got 42% in Pas-de-Calais.

[Vasall des Midas]

2nd (Port-Louis/Auray /Quiberon/Belle-Île, UMP): UMP incumbent Michel Grall is running for a second term. The former mayor of Carnac won a fairly close race in 2007, with 52.3% of the vote in the runoff after emerging as the best of three right-wing candidates (the DVD mayor of Quiberon and the MPF CG for Quiberon) in the first round. This is a traditionally right-leaning area, with Quiberon’s peninsula and small resort places/old people towns like Carnac or La Trinité-sur-Mer being very right-wing, but with Port-Louis, Belle-Île and Pluvigner a bit more left-inclined. Grall faces a dissident candidacy from the DVD CG for Auray (Philippe Le Ray), while the PS’ Nathalie Le Magueresse – running for a third time – faces no serious threat from the Greenies or the FG. The PCF mayor of Auray (which is a fairly right-wing place…), now senator, ran in the last three legislative elections and grabbed 10.3% in 2007. Sarko won 50.6% here, and this is a potential gain for the left, though I'm conflicted about how to classify it...
Hashpipe’s Super-Duper Predictions: tossup with right edge

La Magueresse 35.4, Le Ray 24.3, Grall 20.0, enough for a triangulaire. I suppose he'll withdraw though?

[Vasall des Midas]

Few more interesting results in Morbihan, actually.

FN is doing worse than expected all over. Only one triangulaire in Haut-Rhin - and one second place, but that in the constituency UMP wins on the first round.

[Andrea]

Morbihan

 
1st (Vannes/Golfe du Morbihan, UMP-RS)
UMP 32.63% DVG 26.34% PS 16.61% FN 8.5%

The Left can make it here

2nd (Port-Louis/Auray /Quiberon/Belle-Île, UMP)
PS 35.4% DVD 24,34% UMP (incumbent) 20.1% (qualified)

3rd (Pontivy, UMP^)
PS 40.86 UMP 37.72 FN 10.68

4th (Ploërmel/Guer, UMP^)
Molac DVG 26.04 UMP 25.78 Fichet DVG 12.8 Bléher 14,73

5th (Lorient, PS
PS 43.75 UMP 25.83


6th (Hennebont/Plouay, UMP)
UMP 36.27 PS 25.43 DVG 13.6 FG 8.98 FN 8.08

[Andrea]

Eure 5 is a UMP vs FN run off.

Gard II
FN 34.5% PS 32.8% UMP 23.9%

[Vasall des Midas]

Corsica.

Sud 1 Marcangeli (UMP) 30.8, Renucci (DVG) 29.4
Sud 2 Rocca Serra (UMP) 33.0, Angelini (rég) 21.2
Haute 1 Gandolfi (UMP) 31.2, Simeoni (rég) 24.7, Zuccarelli (RDG) 23.6. Triangulaire.
Haute 2 Giacobbi (RDG) 43.6, Grimaldi (UMP) 24.8

Now to go compare that with expectations.

[Andrea]

Royal 32.03
Falorni(PS dissident) 28.91
UMP 19.47% (eliminated)

Falorni doesn't seem to want to withdraw
...

PS 34.9
Bayrou 23.63
UMP 21.72 (qualified)