French Legislative Elections 2012: Official Results Thread

[minionofmidas]

Royal 32.03
Falorni(PS dissident) 28.91
UMP 19.47% (eliminated)

Falorni doesn't seem to want to withdraw
...

I never understood why he should. It would be something else in a triangulaire.

[Andrea]

Sarthe 3rd (Ecommoy/La Flèche)

The Green beated by the Socialist dissident.

[rob in cal]

Just wandered over to Der Standard, the Vienna paper's website, and they are headlining that Hollande has won a majority.  Please, let the people finish voting in the runoff and then make big statements.

[minionofmidas]

Not majority in the French and English sense - all they mean is more seats than the UMP - but it's still a widely inaccurate headline.

[Andrea]

Looks like PCF is behind PS in 2-3 of their current constituencies.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A few maps for you. Awfully late, but I'm doing my best to catch up.

Candidate ahead :



PS : 21
PRG : 2
DVG : 6
Reg : 3
MoDem : 1
DVD : 3
UMP : 8


Second round scenario :



Left wins by 1st round : 7
Left VS left : 4
Left VS other : 4
Left VS left VS right : 1
Left VS FN : 1
Left VS right : 21
Left VS right VS FN : 1
Right VS other : 4
Right VS right 1


I fear it will take decades to finish...

[Andrea]

Marion Marechal Le Pen 34.63
UMP 30.03
PS 21.98 (qualified)

PS vs Bompard in Vaucluse IV

[rbt48]

So, en anglais, s'il vous plait, at this point does it look like the new French President will have a leftist majority in the Chamber of Deputies?  I realize that things can change in the runoff elections, but as I read through the six pages of posts, I'm not familiar enough with the parties to make a determination on my own.

Merci beaucoup!

[Hash]

The MoDem incumbent in Mayotte lost... quite badly... he won 0.82% of the vote!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Moselle 1 = Filippetti 43.5%, UMP 25.8%, FN 18.8%, FG 5.5%

[Niemeyerite]

Isn't this a better-than-expected night for the right??

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Seine-Maritime 8... PS 30.5, PCF 30.3, UMP 19.6, FN 14.6

That's the proletarian Le Havre seat. Safe Commie, or so we all thought. lol.

[Andrea]

Seine-Maritime 8... PS 30.5, PCF 30.3, UMP 19.6, FN 14.6

That's the proletarian Le Havre seat. Safe Commie, or so we all thought. lol.

Also beaten by PS (or allies) candidate
Roland Muzeau in Hauts-de-Seine 1
Pierre Gosnat in Val de Marne
Patrick Braouezec in Seine St Denis (I don't know if it's definitive but Jean-Pierre Brard is also behind in Montreuil so far)

Buffet seems to have survived: around 3 points ahead of the PS candidate.

The Green candidate defeated in Rhone I by PRG Thierry Braillard. How many "imposed" Greens failed so far?

[Hash]

Yeah, the FG failed bad. Not only has it failed entirely at translating Melenchon's votes, it will probably end up with a caucus SMALLER or equal to that of the PCF in 2007. Fail.

On a side note, my predictions also seemed to have failed bad. I knew I should never have done those.

[Andrea]

Yeah, the FG failed bad.

In the last couple of elections, there has always been the "PCF is going to die" theme during the campaign. This time thanks to the FG vehicle, Melenchon running a good presidential campaign and being charismatic enough, that kind of talks has been avoided....just to lose quite a lot of their remaining seats.

[big bad fab]

Isn't this a better-than-expected night for the right??

Oh no, it's the worst electoral night EVER for the right since 1981... Really... Even 1997 wasn't so bad...
Here, you have a majority dor the PS alone (well, in the context, it's the good news ).
But you have also a group for the Greens.
And Olivier Ferrand, president of Terra Nova think tank, the post-post-post-modern proud lil' sh** of the PS, will eb elected in a triangulaire in Bouches-du-Rhône.
I've just seen this and I've totally depressed.
And I haven't even dared to look at results in Rhône-1, with the Green Meirieu...

I'm sick.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, the FG failed bad.

In the last couple of elections, there was always the "PCF is going to die" them during the campaign. This time thanks to the FG vehicle, Melenchon running a good presidential campaign and being charismatic enough, that kind of talks has been avoided....just to lose quite a lot of their remaining seats.

Very much a heart-of-stone-not-to-laugh situation, actually

[Velasco]

If FG-PCF disappear letting PS alone to face UMP and FN then I would cry just because I´m not heart-stoned. Bad performance but it could be worse as Andrea says.

[Andrea]

I think the only FG incumbents still ahead of PS are

Jean-Jacques Candelier, Alain Bocquet and Marc Dolez in Nord
André Chassaigne in Puy de Dome
Jacqueline Fraysse in Hauts de Seine
Buffet and Asensi in Seine St Denis
+
the new guys in Bouches-du-Rhône 13 and Cher 2

They could keep Huguette Bello in. And that's it.

I don't know how is the situation in target seats. Are they in any winnable run offs against UMP?

[rbt48]

If the left is really doing so spectacularly well in the election, I must conclude that apparently the French are not taking note of what is happening in Greece and Spain!

[big bad fab]

My updated predictions, based on results of the 1st round.
Some mistakes may have occurred.
My total is only 576, but I must go to bed
(majority at 289, remember)

PS 285
DVG 23
PRG 19

EE-LV 19 ()

FG 10

régionalists, independentists 3

MoDem 2 (but not Bayrou)

EXD 1 (Bompard but no FN)

NC 17
PR/DVD 24
UMP 178

awaiting to know who will be candidate in the 2nd round: 5 (roughly, 3 for the left and 2 for the right if everything is "rational")

This is 2007 reversed.
Hope ther will be a bigger turnout for the right next Sunday. But I'm pessimistic.

[DL]

If the left is really doing so spectacularly well in the election, I must conclude that apparently the French are not taking note of what is happening in Greece and Spain!

What's your point? Greece had a rightwing government under New Democracy that forged the books and drove the country into the ground and in Spain banks and developers risked too much money on over-inflated real estate and then got hit when the real estate bubble burst. Meanwhile countries like Germany and Sweden that have wayyyy more lavish social programs and wayyy more government spending are doing well.

[rob in cal]

Big bad fab,

I'm wondering how you make your projections of the final seat total won by each party.  Is there a certain 1st round vote percentage that the left has to win to make it a likely win in the runoff, or do you project on a seat by seat basis?

[batmacumba]

If the left is really doing so spectacularly well in the election, I must conclude that apparently the French are not taking note of what is happening in Greece and Spain!

You're really clueless about Europen recent History, aren't You?

[rob in cal]

Is there a chart anywhere showing which parties are the leading vote getter in how may seats, how many won already, etc. etc.  I'm guessing that several of the seats with the UMP holding only a narrow lead right now will go to the left, but it would be interesting to see the totals, and to see how much a difference the runoffs make vs a British FPTP system.