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| | |-+  French Legislative Elections 2012: Official Results Thread
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Author Topic: French Legislative Elections 2012: Official Results Thread  (Read 8568 times)
Zuza
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« Reply #100 on: June 10, 2012, 10:08:56 pm »
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how many won already

I found info in French Wikipedia:  PS already won 22 seats, UMP 9, PRG 1, EELV 1, DVG 1, NC 1, DVD 1.

And yes, some of the seats where now UMP/NC/DVG leads most probably will be won by the left in 2nd round.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2012, 07:06:33 am by Zuza »Logged
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« Reply #101 on: June 10, 2012, 10:30:01 pm »
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If the left is really doing so spectacularly well in the election, I must conclude that apparently the French are not taking note of what is happening in Greece and Spain!

They are taking note than the crisis is caused by the Euro policy which is destroying manufacturing.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #102 on: June 11, 2012, 02:17:16 am »
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Should I finish the maps I have started posting yesterday ? It is quite time-consuming, so I would like to do it only if someone else is interested.




My updated predictions, based on results of the 1st round.
Some mistakes may have occurred.
My total is only 576, but I must go to bed Tongue
(majority at 289, remember)

PS 285
DVG 23
PRG 19

EE-LV 19 (Sad)

FG 10

régionalists, independentists 3

MoDem 2 (but not Bayrou)

EXD 1 (Bompard but no FN)

NC 17
PR/DVD 24
UMP 178

awaiting to know who will be candidate in the 2nd round: 5 (roughly, 3 for the left and 2 for the right if everything is "rational")

This is 2007 reversed.
Hope ther will be a bigger turnout for the right next Sunday. But I'm pessimistic.

>350 seats for the left ? Now aren't you getting a bit too pessimistic ? Tongue
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« Reply #103 on: June 11, 2012, 03:02:47 am »
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If the left is really doing so spectacularly well in the election, I must conclude that apparently the French are not taking note of what is happening in Greece and Spain!

What's your point? Greece had a rightwing government under New Democracy that forged the books and drove the country into the ground and in Spain banks and developers risked too much money on over-inflated real estate and then got hit when the real estate bubble burst. Meanwhile countries like Germany and Sweden that have wayyyy more lavish social programs and wayyy more government spending are doing well.

Government spending in relation to what? the defict is very low in Sweden and Germany, unlike France. that is the point.
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« Reply #104 on: June 11, 2012, 04:10:37 am »
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Hi,

Does anybody have a clue as to the behavior of FN and Modem voters in the second round where their candidate isn't qualified ? Can we assume a vote transfer model similar to what could be observed between the rounds of the presidential ? Could we take something like 14-50-36 for the FN and 30-40-30 for the Modem (or what's left of it...) ? I'm aware of the fact that it will largely depend on local situations, but I'm trying to project some constituencies to prove big bad fab wrong ;-)

I'll make a list of circos to follow for the second round.

I'm guessing no more than 8 PCF left, and a 2007-like majority for the mostly-PS left.

Not really a progress or victory for democracy though...
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« Reply #105 on: June 11, 2012, 04:38:47 am »
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If the left is really doing so spectacularly well in the election, I must conclude that apparently the French are not taking note of what is happening in Greece and Spain!

I think it's the opposite. After seeing what a disaster Rajoy is, they have decided to vote for the left Tongue.
I don't have anything to add, my European friends have already told you the truth: that you're way off the beam.
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« Reply #106 on: June 11, 2012, 05:49:03 am »

Candidate ahead:


Again, my predictions = fail. Should I bother with a second stab at humiliating myself?

Also, Morano is even more of a despicable human being than I thought. She's a poster child for abortion.
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« Reply #107 on: June 11, 2012, 05:58:43 am »
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What happened in Greens vs Socialist Dissident battles?

Haute Garonne III
UMP 35.14% Greens 22.24% DVG 21.36%

Green Francois Simon leads Alain Fillola by around 400 votes and looks set to win next week.

Finistere III
 
UMP 38.82 DVG 20.98 Green 20.78%

Here it's the opposite. Jean-Luc Bleunven is 105 votes ahead of Magali Deval

Côtes-d’Armor IV

Annie Le Houérou topped the poll (32%). The Green candidate (12%) finished 4th behind UMP (18) and FG (16%).

Vendée III

UMP 28.93 DVD 19.58 DVG 17.79 Green 11.76 FN 10.31

Both Leftish candidates are eliminated. Not that they would have won it even if united.

Maine et Loire III
NCE 23.41% DVG 20.9 DVD 20.26 (out) Green 16.64

Sarthe III
UMP 33.6 Dissident 29.06 Green 15.43 FN 13.42

Orne III
"The PS officially gave this seat to the Greenies, who turned around and backed a nobody with an Arab name."

He got 4%!

Calvados 5

UMP 20.04 Green 21.47 Dissident 19.46 NCE 15.96 FN 11.26

Eure V

The Green beats the mother of DSK's accuser...but both of them are out and easily beaten by FN. Another DVG beats the accuser's mothers

Vienne IV
NCE 33.79 Greem 19.97 Dissident 17.79 FN 14.63

Indre-et-Loire
UMP 37.6 Green 25.49 Diss 14.72 FN 11.89 FG 6.41

Haute-Loire I

The Green backed regionalist didn't go anywhere and was easily outpolled by the dissident Socialist. But it doesn't matter as Wauquiez already polled 49%

Hauts de Seine 10
NCE 44.01 Green 23.71 Diss 15.01

Soane et Loire II
UMP 37.35 Diss 29.42 Green 14.7

Vosges I
UMP 41.5 Diss 20.32 FN 15.2 Green 13.68

Rhone I
UMP 31.42 Ballard 26.41 Green 18.36

I can't remember where there have been other Green/Dissident fights
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Antonio V
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« Reply #108 on: June 11, 2012, 06:43:44 am »
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Candidate ahead:


Again, my predictions = fail. Should I bother with a second stab at humiliating myself?

Also, Morano is even more of a despicable human being than I thought. She's a poster child for abortion.

I guess I can't compete. Tongue
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Antonio V
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« Reply #109 on: June 11, 2012, 07:50:11 am »
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Well, things seem to have gone quite well so far. Smiley Even Falorni could win and kick Royal ! Cheesy

This means nothing, though. Anything can change in one week, I know that well enough from the presidential election... So, let's keep calm. Everything will be decided in six days.
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« Reply #110 on: June 11, 2012, 08:41:43 am »

This means nothing, though. Anything can change in one week, I know that well enough from the presidential election... So, let's keep calm. Everything will be decided in six days.

Oh hisht, mon. You've won already Grin
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« Reply #111 on: June 11, 2012, 10:50:58 am »
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So, how did LePen and the other FNers do ?

Anyone with a chance to enter Parliament in the 2nd round ?
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Carlos Danger
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« Reply #112 on: June 11, 2012, 10:53:04 am »
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So, how did LePen and the other FNers do ?

Anyone with a chance to enter Parliament in the 2nd round ?

From what I've read it looks like Le Pen will make it but none of the others will.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #113 on: June 11, 2012, 10:58:17 am »
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This means nothing, though. Anything can change in one week, I know that well enough from the presidential election... So, let's keep calm. Everything will be decided in six days.

Oh hisht, mon. You've won already Grin

I know, I know... Wink But remember 2007, the right was expected to get 450 seats and eventually lost a few compared to 2002.


So, how did LePen and the other FNers do ?

Anyone with a chance to enter Parliament in the 2nd round ?

She got 42%. Several FN members are also in a good position (Collard, Philippot) but I don't know if any will win. It's such a new situation for them that, really, it's hard to be sure of anything.

FN nationwide did pretty poorly (13.6%) however.
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« Reply #114 on: June 11, 2012, 11:01:29 am »
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I know, I know... Wink But remember 2007, the right was expected to get 450 seats and eventually lost a few compared to 2002.


This is true, but it was very apparent from the 1st round results in 2007 that the UMP was not going to do nearly as well as some had expected and the 2nd round merely confirmed what the 1st round already showed.
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« Reply #115 on: June 11, 2012, 11:02:12 am »
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This means nothing, though. Anything can change in one week, I know that well enough from the presidential election... So, let's keep calm. Everything will be decided in six days.

Oh hisht, mon. You've won already Grin

I know, I know... Wink But remember 2007, the right was expected to get 450 seats and eventually lost a few compared to 2002.


So, how did LePen and the other FNers do ?

Anyone with a chance to enter Parliament in the 2nd round ?

She got 42%. Several FN members are also in a good position (Collard, Philippot) but I don't know if any will win. It's such a new situation for them that, really, it's hard to be sure of anything.

FN nationwide did pretty poorly (13.6%) however.

42% looks pretty good. Who is in the runoff with her ?
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Antonio V
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« Reply #116 on: June 11, 2012, 11:11:23 am »
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I know, I know... Wink But remember 2007, the right was expected to get 450 seats and eventually lost a few compared to 2002.


This is true, but it was very apparent from the 1st round results in 2007 that the UMP was not going to do nearly as well as some had expected and the 2nd round merely confirmed what the 1st round already showed.

On the first round of 2007, UMP polled 39% while it had polled 33% in 2002. The parliamentary right held a 10 point margin, instead of 6 in 2002. It was not very hard to expect it would gain at least 50 seats...


42% looks pretty good. Who is in the runoff with her ?

Kémel, the PS guy. He beat Mélenchon by 2 points (23.5-21.5) and was, according to the polls, the best candidate against Le Pen for the runoff. Still, since she overperformed already, you never know.
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« Reply #117 on: June 11, 2012, 11:12:23 am »

So, how did LePen and the other FNers do ?

Le Pen 42.3%, Kemel (PS) 23.5%, Mélenchon 21.5%, Urbaniak (something like a joint UMP/MoDem candidate) 7.9%. In theory that position isn't actually strong enough for her to win (a runoff against Mélenchon would have been different), though stranger things have happened and perhaps pessimism isn't a bad thing or whatever.

Another Le Pen topped the poll in the Vaucluse 3rd, which will be a triangular trainwreck. FN also on top in Gard 3rd and Pas-de-Calais 12th, though the latter is a fluke and they won't even get close (PS incumbent caught with hand in till, runs as a independent and polls 21.6%. Official PS candidate knocks him out - to the surprise of all - with 24.6%. FN gets 25.7%). Oh, Bouches-de-Rhône 3rd as well (north eastern Marseille). 30% FN, 30% DVG, 20% UMP, 11% FG.

But maybe the fascist with the best chance of winning is Jacques Bompard, who left the FN in 2005. Results in the Vaucluse 4th were: PS 25.2%, Bompard 23.5%, UMP 20.4%, FN 16.3%.
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« Reply #118 on: June 11, 2012, 11:32:38 am »
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I find it amusing that the left is excited at the FN doing a little bit weaker than portrayed in the last polls, and that its calling for a Republican Front against 1st place FN candidates when, correct me if I'm wrong here, President Hollande called for bringing back proportional representation to parliamentary elections.  Just imagine dozens of FN candidates actually getting elected without any drama, but rather as a matter of course. Such would be the case with PR, as was shown in the 1986 elections of course.
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« Reply #119 on: June 11, 2012, 11:48:46 am »
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So, how did LePen and the other FNers do ?

Le Pen 42.3%, Kemel (PS) 23.5%, Mélenchon 21.5%, Urbaniak (something like a joint UMP/MoDem candidate) 7.9%. In theory that position isn't actually strong enough for her to win (a runoff against Mélenchon would have been different), though stranger things have happened and perhaps pessimism isn't a bad thing or whatever.

Another Le Pen topped the poll in the Vaucluse 3rd, which will be a triangular trainwreck. FN also on top in Gard 3rd and Pas-de-Calais 12th, though the latter is a fluke and they won't even get close (PS incumbent caught with hand in till, runs as a independent and polls 21.6%. Official PS candidate knocks him out - to the surprise of all - with 24.6%. FN gets 25.7%). Oh, Bouches-de-Rhône 3rd as well (north eastern Marseille). 30% FN, 30% DVG, 20% UMP, 11% FG.


Aubry asked the PS candidate to withdraw in Vaucluse III. The candidate hasn't decided yet though

Bouches-du-Rhône XVI:  the UMP guy has withdrawn to stop Michel Vauzelle (the PS candidate). 1 round: PS 38.4 FN 29 UMP 22.6
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« Reply #120 on: June 11, 2012, 12:03:32 pm »

Oh that's sick.
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« Reply #121 on: June 11, 2012, 12:06:12 pm »

Again, my predictions = fail. Should I bother with a second stab at humiliating myself?

Why ever not? I'm thinking about doing some really basic ones, just for the sheer hell of it.
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« Reply #122 on: June 11, 2012, 12:18:10 pm »
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Should I bother with a second stab at humiliating myself?

Just noticed this. By all means, you should.
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« Reply #123 on: June 11, 2012, 12:26:48 pm »
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Since I'm a loser at doing useful maps, here's a useless one. Candidates elected by the 1st round :



PS : 22
PRG : 1
DVG : 1
EELV : 1
NC : 1
UMP : 9
MPF : 1
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« Reply #124 on: June 11, 2012, 04:02:49 pm »

Finally, a website with a decent map of the results!

http://www.liberation.fr/politiques/2012/06/08/legislatives-tous-les-resultats-du-1er-tour_824715

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