French Legislative Elections 2012: Official Results Thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

Flosse is running ? I thought he was ineligible.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Meh, that still sucks...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bowring (PRG) 2% (I WON!111)

Congrats, Hash.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Leaks from the Benelux say that Marie-Anne Montchamp, the UMP candidate and former cabinet minister, would be third and out by the first round. I wonder how Dodo is doing. Is he going to lose another election?

Really ? Wow. I'm curious to see how this ends up.

[Antonio the Sixth]

PS qualifies in the Constituency of Shame ? I guess that tax evaders are too depressed to show up and vote.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Don't lose hope too soon, Fab. There might very well be a "landslide backfire" in the second round, like in 2007.

[Antonio the Sixth]

And that, if the PS has a majority on its own only because he'll win 5, 6 or even 7 seats abroad, it could be full of irony on the trick from the right about these new seats...

That would be too beautiful to be true.

[Antonio the Sixth]

5 minutes to go !

[Antonio the Sixth]

Raw numbers are quite good for the left, but that doesn't mean much. "Seat projections" are useless.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A few maps for you. Awfully late, but I'm doing my best to catch up.

Candidate ahead :



PS : 21
PRG : 2
DVG : 6
Reg : 3
MoDem : 1
DVD : 3
UMP : 8


Second round scenario :



Left wins by 1st round : 7
Left VS left : 4
Left VS other : 4
Left VS left VS right : 1
Left VS FN : 1
Left VS right : 21
Left VS right VS FN : 1
Right VS other : 4
Right VS right 1


I fear it will take decades to finish...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Should I finish the maps I have started posting yesterday ? It is quite time-consuming, so I would like to do it only if someone else is interested.

My updated predictions, based on results of the 1st round.
Some mistakes may have occurred.
My total is only 576, but I must go to bed
(majority at 289, remember)

PS 285
DVG 23
PRG 19

EE-LV 19 ()

FG 10

régionalists, independentists 3

MoDem 2 (but not Bayrou)

EXD 1 (Bompard but no FN)

NC 17
PR/DVD 24
UMP 178

awaiting to know who will be candidate in the 2nd round: 5 (roughly, 3 for the left and 2 for the right if everything is "rational")

This is 2007 reversed.
Hope ther will be a bigger turnout for the right next Sunday. But I'm pessimistic.

>350 seats for the left ? Now aren't you getting a bit too pessimistic ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Candidate ahead:


Again, my predictions = fail. Should I bother with a second stab at humiliating myself?

Also, Morano is even more of a despicable human being than I thought. She's a poster child for abortion.

I guess I can't compete.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, things seem to have gone quite well so far. Even Falorni could win and kick Royal !

This means nothing, though. Anything can change in one week, I know that well enough from the presidential election... So, let's keep calm. Everything will be decided in six days.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This means nothing, though. Anything can change in one week, I know that well enough from the presidential election... So, let's keep calm. Everything will be decided in six days.

Oh hisht, mon. You've won already

I know, I know... But remember 2007, the right was expected to get 450 seats and eventually lost a few compared to 2002.

So, how did LePen and the other FNers do ?

Anyone with a chance to enter Parliament in the 2nd round ?

She got 42%. Several FN members are also in a good position (Collard, Philippot) but I don't know if any will win. It's such a new situation for them that, really, it's hard to be sure of anything.

FN nationwide did pretty poorly (13.6%) however.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I know, I know... But remember 2007, the right was expected to get 450 seats and eventually lost a few compared to 2002.

This is true, but it was very apparent from the 1st round results in 2007 that the UMP was not going to do nearly as well as some had expected and the 2nd round merely confirmed what the 1st round already showed.

On the first round of 2007, UMP polled 39% while it had polled 33% in 2002. The parliamentary right held a 10 point margin, instead of 6 in 2002. It was not very hard to expect it would gain at least 50 seats...

42% looks pretty good. Who is in the runoff with her ?

Kémel, the PS guy. He beat Mélenchon by 2 points (23.5-21.5) and was, according to the polls, the best candidate against Le Pen for the runoff. Still, since she overperformed already, you never know.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Should I bother with a second stab at humiliating myself?

Just noticed this. By all means, you should.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Since I'm a loser at doing useful maps, here's a useless one. Candidates elected by the 1st round :



PS : 22
PRG : 1
DVG : 1
EELV : 1
NC : 1
UMP : 9
MPF : 1

[Antonio the Sixth]

57% turnout?  Isn't that low for France?

3% less than last time, which was already 4% less than five years earlier.