French Legislative Elections 2012: Official Results Thread

[Andrea]

Patrick Lebreton and Huguette Bello re-elected in Reunion.

UMP incumbent René-Paul Victoria fails to qualify to run off in the first Reunion constituency. PS vs MoDem. MoDem can take the other UMP seat (7th) too.

Annick Girardin (RDG) easily re-elected in Saint Pierre et Miquelon
Oure-Mer minister Victorin Lurel re-elected in Guadalupe IV.

[Andrea]

Triangulaire on paper in Wallis and Fatuna


M. David VERGÉ (DVD)   28,80
M. Mikaele KULIMOETOKE (DVG)   19.40   
M. Albert LIKUVALU (RDG, incumbent)   17.00     (13.12% of total electorate)
M. Epifano TUI (SOC)      13.17   
 M. Antonio ILALIO (CEN)      12.37
M. Simione VANAI (SOC)      9.26   

[Andrea]

Oure-Mer minister Victorin Lurel re-elected in Guadalupe IV.

Majorities for Socialists in three constituencies there actually, but low turnout means the other two need to go to a runoff anyways. Same in one constituency in Martinique.

The 1/4 rule looks a bit silly though. It's not they will have a stronger mandate if they are forced to run off in an equally low turnout.

[Andrea]

Frédéric Cuvillier apparently re-elected with 50.66% in Pas de Calais.

[Andrea]

Alpes Haute Provence I
PS 33.04% UMP 23.68% FN 16.57 (eliminated) FG 9.83

Alpes Haute Provence II
PS 35.76% UMP 29.77% FN 15.25 (eliminated) FG 9.37

[Andrea]

PS first round win in Gers I

Looking good for Stéphane Le Foll: around 15 points ahead of UMP
René Dosière is ahead in Aisne I: 29.11 vs 26.5 for Nouveau centre and 21,47 for PS official man.

[Andrea]

Vosges II

Jack Lang 37.5%
UMP 35.35%
FN 17.34% (eliminated)

[Andrea]

 Philippe Vigier (NCE) re-elected in Eure et Loir IV
FN eliminated in the other Eure-et-Loir constituencies. So the chances of a PS gain seems to go away with it.

[Andrea]

Morbihan

 
1st (Vannes/Golfe du Morbihan, UMP-RS)
UMP 32.63% DVG 26.34% PS 16.61% FN 8.5%

The Left can make it here

2nd (Port-Louis/Auray /Quiberon/Belle-Île, UMP)
PS 35.4% DVD 24,34% UMP (incumbent) 20.1% (qualified)

3rd (Pontivy, UMP^)
PS 40.86 UMP 37.72 FN 10.68

4th (Ploërmel/Guer, UMP^)
Molac DVG 26.04 UMP 25.78 Fichet DVG 12.8 Bléher 14,73

5th (Lorient, PS
PS 43.75 UMP 25.83


6th (Hennebont/Plouay, UMP)
UMP 36.27 PS 25.43 DVG 13.6 FG 8.98 FN 8.08

[Andrea]

Eure 5 is a UMP vs FN run off.

Gard II
FN 34.5% PS 32.8% UMP 23.9%

[Andrea]

Royal 32.03
Falorni(PS dissident) 28.91
UMP 19.47% (eliminated)

Falorni doesn't seem to want to withdraw
...

PS 34.9
Bayrou 23.63
UMP 21.72 (qualified)

[Andrea]

Sarthe 3rd (Ecommoy/La Flèche)

The Green beated by the Socialist dissident.

[Andrea]

Looks like PCF is behind PS in 2-3 of their current constituencies.

[Andrea]

Marion Marechal Le Pen 34.63
UMP 30.03
PS 21.98 (qualified)

PS vs Bompard in Vaucluse IV

[Andrea]

Seine-Maritime 8... PS 30.5, PCF 30.3, UMP 19.6, FN 14.6

That's the proletarian Le Havre seat. Safe Commie, or so we all thought. lol.

Also beaten by PS (or allies) candidate
Roland Muzeau in Hauts-de-Seine 1
Pierre Gosnat in Val de Marne
Patrick Braouezec in Seine St Denis (I don't know if it's definitive but Jean-Pierre Brard is also behind in Montreuil so far)

Buffet seems to have survived: around 3 points ahead of the PS candidate.

The Green candidate defeated in Rhone I by PRG Thierry Braillard. How many "imposed" Greens failed so far?

[Andrea]

Yeah, the FG failed bad.

In the last couple of elections, there has always been the "PCF is going to die" theme during the campaign. This time thanks to the FG vehicle, Melenchon running a good presidential campaign and being charismatic enough, that kind of talks has been avoided....just to lose quite a lot of their remaining seats.

[Andrea]

I think the only FG incumbents still ahead of PS are

Jean-Jacques Candelier, Alain Bocquet and Marc Dolez in Nord
André Chassaigne in Puy de Dome
Jacqueline Fraysse in Hauts de Seine
Buffet and Asensi in Seine St Denis
+
the new guys in Bouches-du-Rhône 13 and Cher 2

They could keep Huguette Bello in. And that's it.

I don't know how is the situation in target seats. Are they in any winnable run offs against UMP?

[Andrea]

What happened in Greens vs Socialist Dissident battles?

Haute Garonne III
UMP 35.14% Greens 22.24% DVG 21.36%

Green Francois Simon leads Alain Fillola by around 400 votes and looks set to win next week.

Finistere III
 
UMP 38.82 DVG 20.98 Green 20.78%

Here it's the opposite. Jean-Luc Bleunven is 105 votes ahead of Magali Deval

Côtes-d’Armor IV

Annie Le Houérou topped the poll (32%). The Green candidate (12%) finished 4th behind UMP (18) and FG (16%).

Vendée III

UMP 28.93 DVD 19.58 DVG 17.79 Green 11.76 FN 10.31

Both Leftish candidates are eliminated. Not that they would have won it even if united.

Maine et Loire III
NCE 23.41% DVG 20.9 DVD 20.26 (out) Green 16.64

Sarthe III
UMP 33.6 Dissident 29.06 Green 15.43 FN 13.42

Orne III
"The PS officially gave this seat to the Greenies, who turned around and backed a nobody with an Arab name."

He got 4%!

Calvados 5

UMP 20.04 Green 21.47 Dissident 19.46 NCE 15.96 FN 11.26

Eure V

The Green beats the mother of DSK's accuser...but both of them are out and easily beaten by FN. Another DVG beats the accuser's mothers

Vienne IV
NCE 33.79 Greem 19.97 Dissident 17.79 FN 14.63

Indre-et-Loire
UMP 37.6 Green 25.49 Diss 14.72 FN 11.89 FG 6.41

Haute-Loire I

The Green backed regionalist didn't go anywhere and was easily outpolled by the dissident Socialist. But it doesn't matter as Wauquiez already polled 49%

Hauts de Seine 10
NCE 44.01 Green 23.71 Diss 15.01

Soane et Loire II
UMP 37.35 Diss 29.42 Green 14.7

Vosges I
UMP 41.5 Diss 20.32 FN 15.2 Green 13.68

Rhone I
UMP 31.42 Ballard 26.41 Green 18.36

I can't remember where there have been other Green/Dissident fights

[Andrea]

So, how did LePen and the other FNers do ?

Le Pen 42.3%, Kemel (PS) 23.5%, Mélenchon 21.5%, Urbaniak (something like a joint UMP/MoDem candidate) 7.9%. In theory that position isn't actually strong enough for her to win (a runoff against Mélenchon would have been different), though stranger things have happened and perhaps pessimism isn't a bad thing or whatever.

Another Le Pen topped the poll in the Vaucluse 3rd, which will be a triangular trainwreck. FN also on top in Gard 3rd and Pas-de-Calais 12th, though the latter is a fluke and they won't even get close (PS incumbent caught with hand in till, runs as a independent and polls 21.6%. Official PS candidate knocks him out - to the surprise of all - with 24.6%. FN gets 25.7%). Oh, Bouches-de-Rhône 3rd as well (north eastern Marseille). 30% FN, 30% DVG, 20% UMP, 11% FG.

Aubry asked the PS candidate to withdraw in Vaucluse III. The candidate hasn't decided yet though

Bouches-du-Rhône XVI:  the UMP guy has withdrawn to stop Michel Vauzelle (the PS candidate). 1 round: PS 38.4 FN 29 UMP 22.6