French Legislative Elections 2012: Official Results Thread

[Zanas]

Hi,

Does anybody have a clue as to the behavior of FN and Modem voters in the second round where their candidate isn't qualified ? Can we assume a vote transfer model similar to what could be observed between the rounds of the presidential ? Could we take something like 14-50-36 for the FN and 30-40-30 for the Modem (or what's left of it...) ? I'm aware of the fact that it will largely depend on local situations, but I'm trying to project some constituencies to prove big bad fab wrong ;-)

I'll make a list of circos to follow for the second round.

I'm guessing no more than 8 PCF left, and a 2007-like majority for the mostly-PS left.

Not really a progress or victory for democracy though...

[Zanas]

They most certainly will not. Uninominal voting is what keeps the PS rolling, and we see today how they could monopolize the left space, even though the Greens were between 12 and 16 two years ago, and the Left Front at 10 in 2011 cantonales and 11 on April 22nd...