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[.]

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[CatoMinor]

PPP may be Dem affiliated, however they are still the best so I will go with them on this.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Yeah, no. The race is tightening, but Walker will narrowly hold; what matters is if we can knock out some state senators.

[CatoMinor]

PPP may be Dem affiliated, however they are still the best so I will go with them on this.

The best? They're ranked #13 here by Nate Silver, just in front of Rasmussen (#15). http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings (can't see where he's updated his rankings, but if someone has the new update, i'd be glad to see it). I'd also caution against using Nate Silver as your sole guide to whether a pollster is any good or not, as he received a lot of criticism for his methodology, as well as for just giving false/incorrect polling data http://www.pollster.com/blogs/are_nate_silvers_pollster_rati.php?nr=1

From what I've seen they have been (in recent elections elections at least) pretty accurate and I am sure come Tuesday they will likely be closer than +12 that just came out.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah, no. The race is tightening, but Walker will narrowly hold; what matters is if we can knock out some state senators.

All we need is one and we have the Senate, which hopefully can neuter Walker until 2014.

[krazen1211]

Yeah, no. The race is tightening, but Walker will narrowly hold; what matters is if we can knock out some state senators.

All we need is one and we have the Senate, which hopefully can neuter Walker until 2014.

Actually, the Senate is out of session. There are senators up in 2012 and the GOP is targeting at least 2 seats.

[hawkeye59]

PPP may be Dem affiliated, however they are still the best so I will go with them on this.

The best? They're ranked #13 here by Nate Silver, just in front of Rasmussen (#15). http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings (can't see where he's updated his rankings, but if someone has the new update, i'd be glad to see it). I'd also caution against using Nate Silver as your sole guide to whether a pollster is any good or not, as he received a lot of criticism for his methodology, as well as for just giving false/incorrect polling data http://www.pollster.com/blogs/are_nate_silvers_pollster_rati.php?nr=1

They're number one of the pollsters that have done a poll on this election.

[Brittain33]

They're number one of the pollsters that have done a poll on this election.

How could you possibly know if PPP was the best pollster on the recall when the election hasn't even been held yet?

Read it this way: if you only look at the pollsters who are active in WI right now AND are ranked on Nate Silver's list, they're top. It doesn't matter if it's 12th if it's 12th out of 100 and the top 11 haven't polled WI.

[SPQR]

I think it's also interesting that WAA is the only one ever showing a double-digits lead...

[Eraserhead]

Surely nobody here thinks Walker will win this by more than 10%. That's just a whole other level of silly.

All I can recall about WAA was when they told us Romney and Gingrich were in a dead heat with Santorum in Tennessee...

[Torie]

It would be nice to know if TV ads have been blanketing the state, and how effective they have been. My instinct tells me the Walker margin has widened in the past two or three days. The issue of course is turnout. I don't think the Dem turnout will be there. The Dems in the Luntz focus group tonight seemed demoralized and lacked passion - almost lifeless. (Sure that is nothing but anecdotal noise, but whatever.) Another drag on the Dems here is the sense that a recall requires a clear and compelling case to remove a guy before his term is up, which just isn't remotely there with swing voters. Walker by 4 is the "safe" call I think, but double that would not shock me at all. I think the clear and compelling case aspect is why smart Dems didn't want to go here. Now the Pubs have identified every voter, and are energized. Obama giving the finger to this election is another factor here. If he doesn't care, and doesn't want to risk a dime of his political capital, why should his loyal fans care that much?

I am just rambling. Pay me no mind.

[tmthforu94]

Tomorrow will show us whether or not PPP has some Democratic-lean this year. I personally think it does, as their state polls simply aren't matching up with national ones, but we'll see.

I'd personally say Walker wins around 54-46.

[Psychic Octopus]

Walker 53-47. Calling it.

[GLPman]

Walker 53-47. Calling it.

I agree with this assessment. It won't be a total blowout, but Walker will win decisively.