UK fantasy boundaries; retaining the old counties
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  UK fantasy boundaries; retaining the old counties
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afleitch
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« on: February 27, 2013, 07:21:10 AM »

I've done Scotland first. We can use the 1982 ‘close of play’ electorates published in the 3rd Periodical Review to guess at what would have happened in that review. For the 4th review and beyond the best way to do Scotland was to look at ward electorates and look at Census data. The census data is published by parish, which helps make connections to the older counties. I collected the number of residents in 2001 aged over 16 to help ‘fill in the blanks’ for the ‘First Holyrood’ review. Despite growth in the electorate and population since 2001, the growth is stable enough to allow me to make a decent guess to the electorate. The total number of Scots aged over 16 (excluding Orkney and Zetland) was 4,066,467 giving a ‘theoretical entitlement’ of 57,273. I am also disregarding the effects of the 1986 Act which curbed Scottish seats at 72.

I was going to just do the Third Review then the First Holyrood review; but each review determines what happens at the next, so I’ve tried to do each of them, using 1991 census data to assist.

Third Review

Aberdeenshire
Aberdeen North – No change
Aberdeen South – No change
Aberdeenshire West – Looses Huntly District and Huntly Burgh to Aberdeenshire East
Aberdeenshire East – Gains Huntly District and Huntly Burgh from Aberdeenshire West (Both seats would be more accurately labelled ‘North’ and ‘South’)

Angus and Kincardine
North Angus and Mearns – Gains Kirriemuir District and Burgh from South Angus
South Angus – Looses Kirriemuir District and Burgh to North Angus and Mearns
Dundee East – No change
Dundee West – No change

Argyll – No change

Ayrshire and Bute
Ayr – No change
Bute and North Ayrshire – Gains Kilbirnie District from Central Ayrshire
Central Ayrshire – Looses Kilbirnie District to Bute and North Ayrshire
Kilmarnock – No change
South Ayrshire – No change

Banffshire – No change

Berwick and East Lothian – No change

Caithness and Sutherland – No change

Dumfriesshire – No change

Dunbartonshire
Central Dunbartonshire – Looses Milngavie to East Dunbartonshire, gains Bearsden from East Dunbartonshire
East Dunbartonshire – Looses Bearsden to Central Dunbartonshire, gains Milngavie from Central Dunbartonshire
West Dunbartonshire – No change

Fife

Central Fife – Loss of Lochgelly burgh and district and Cowdenbeath burgh to Cowdenbeath. Gains Wemyss District from East Fife and western part of Wemyss district and Leven burgh from Kirkcaldy
Dunfermline – Loss of eastern part of Dunfermline district and Inverkeithing burgh to Cowdenbeath
East Fife – Loss of eastern part of Wemyss district to Central Fife
Kirkcaldy – Loss of Leven burgh and western part of Wemyss district to Central Fife
Cowdenbeath - Lochgelly burgh and district, Cowdenbeath burgh, eastern part of Dunfermline district, Inverkeithing burgh, eastern part of Wemyss district (New seat)

Inverness-shire and Ross and Cromarty
Inverness – No change
Ross and Cromarty – No change
Western Isles – No change

Kirkcudbright and Wigtown – Galloway – No change

Lanarkshire

Entitlement 18 seats. Current. 21

Bothwell – No change
East Kilbride – Looses Blantyre/Stonefield to Rutherglen
Hamilton – No change
Lanark – No change
Northern Lanarkshire – No change
Rutherglen - Gains Blantyre/Stonefield from East Kilbride
Coatbridge and Airdrie – No change
Motherwell – No change

Glasgow

Representation is reduced to 10 seats. The end result would be similar to what we had in 1983 in reality (a rewarding of Glasgow would also have been highly overdue at this point)

Pollok – No change
Govan – Gains Craigton (abolished)
Cathcart – No change
Central – Gains Queens Park (abolished), small gain of part of Kelvingrove and loss of small part of Central to Shettleson
Garscadden – No change
Hillhead – Gains Kelvingrove (abolished), small loss of part of Kelvingrove to Central.
Maryhill – No change
Springburn – No change
Provan – No change
Shettleston – Gains small part of Central (Calton/Bridgeton)
 
Midlothian
Midlothian West – West Calder, East Calder and Currie Districts from Midlothian (abolished)
Midlothian East – Remainder of Midlothian (abolished)

Edinburgh

(similar changes as in reality)
Edinburgh Central – Gains part of Edinburgh North (abolished)
Edinburgh East – No change
Edinburgh Leith – Gains part of Edinburgh North (abolished)
Edinburgh Pentlands – No change
Edinburgh South – No change
Edinburgh West – No change

Moray and Nairnshire – No change

Orkney and Zetland – No change

Perthshire and Kinross
Kinross and West Perthshire – Gains Perth District south of River Tay from Perth and East Perthshire
Perth and East Perthshire – Looses Perth District south of River Tay to Kinross and West Perthshire

Renfrewshire

Greenock and Port Glasgow – No change
Paisley – No change
Renfrewshire East – Loss of Second District, loss of Barrhead Burgh to Renfrewshire Central
Renfrewshire West – Loss of Renfrew Burgh, loss of Johnstone Burgh to Renfrewshire Central
Renfrew Central - Second District, Barrhead Burgh, Renfrew Burgh, Johnstone Burgh (New seat)

Roxburgh, Selkirk and Peebles – No change

Stirlingshire and Clackmannanshire

Clackmannan and East Stirlingshire – Loss of Second Eastern and Third Eastern Districts to Stirlingshire South
West Stirlingshire – Loss of Central Second district and the burghs of Dunipace and Kilsyth to Stirlingshire South
Stirling, Falkirk and Grangemouth – Loss of Grangemouth to Stirlingshire South (New name: Stirling and Falkirk)
Stirlingshire South - Central Second district, the burghs of Dunipace and Kilsyth, Second Eastern and Third Eastern Districts

West Lothian
West Lothian North – Linlithgow District and Burgh, Queensferry District and Burgh, Bo’Ness District and Burgh, Uphall District
West Lothian South – Whitburn and Livingston, Armadale and Bathgate Burghs, Torpichen District

OVERALL CHANGE

Abolished seats – Glasgow Craigton, Glasgow Queens Park, Glasgow Kelvingrove, Edinburgh North, Midlothian, West Lothian
Created seats – Renfrewshire Central, Stirlingshire South, West Lothian North, West Lothian South, Midlothian East, Midlothian West, Cowdenbeath.

PARTISAN EFFECT

Of the six abolished seats, all bar one (Edinburgh North) were held by Labour in 1979. However Labour make gains in the created seats. Renfrewshire Central (along with Paisley) nestles in the footprint of what would in reality be Paisley North and South and would be a Labour win. Stirlingshire South would also be a Labour win. The two new seats created from West Lothian and Midlothian would both also be Labour wins as too would Cowdenbeath. So Labour end up evens with the Tories down 1. However the abolition of Edinburgh North throws a chunk of Tory territory into Edinburgh Central making it a notional Conservative gain. Changes to the boundary between Bute and North Ayrshire and Central Ayrshire almost have the opposite effect, but the Tories would just hang on. Changes in Stirlingshire, removing Kilsyth from Stirlingshire West would make the seat a lot closer.

So in all, Scotland as a whole down 1 seat and Labour also down 1 seat.

GENERAL ELECTIONS

What effect would the general elections of 1983-1992 have had on the seats?

1983.

With Dennis Canavan likely vacating Stirlingshire West for Stirlingshire Central, it makes the Tories task in Stirlingshire West a lot easier and I would expect Michael Forsyth to take the seat. Maclennan and Kennedy win Caithness and Sutherland and Ross and Cromarty for the Alliance as does Roy Jenkins in Glasgow Hillhead. However with no Gordon, then the Alliance fail to make a dent in the north east. The Conservatives take Renfrewshire West from Labour and also snatch East Lothian and Berwick from Labour in a close three way contest (Labour’s looses a chunk of it’s majority in real life East Lothian to Musselburgh and don’t make it up in Berwickshire. The Tories overtake Labour thanks to their voters in Berwickshire)

1987.

A Tory collapse in Scotland. Labour take the Western Isles and Dundee East from the SNP, but the SNP make gains from the Tories winning Moray and Nairn, Banffshire, Aberdeenshire East and Angus South. The Alliance also take Aberdeenshire West at last from the Conservatives and oust them in Argyll and East Fife. Labour also take Aberdeen South, Edinburgh Central and Edinburgh South from the Tories as well as winning in East Lothian and Berwick. Labour oust the Alliance in Hillhead, oust the Tories in Renfrewshire West, Bute and Ayrshire North. In all the Tories are reduced to just 9 seats

1992.

And now a mini revival. The Tories successfully oust the Liberal Democrats in Aberdeenshire West and Labour in Aberdeen South.

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afleitch
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« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2013, 08:01:39 AM »

1993 Review

So what happens to the seats come the 4th Review and the 1st Holyrood Review? The changes here are more minor and I run through them below;

Aberdeenshire
The county is now entitled to an extra seat. The two Aberdeen seats are still slightly over represented. Indeed the area of Aberdeenshire that was joined to Aberdeen City Burgh to create Aberdeen City has a theoretical electorate of over 40,000 at this point. The new seat, Aberdeenshire Central, effectively takes in the whole of Aberdeen District (pre ’74) and some of the hinterland. Aberdeenshire East contracts to it’s 1974-1983 boundaries

Angus and Kincardine
Dundee City is still entitled to two seats, though it swallows up Broughty Ferry. As a result, the Angus seats retract to their 1974-1983 boundaries though both seats are oversized.

Argyll – No change

Ayrshire and Bute – No change.

Banffshire – No change

Berwick and East Lothian – East Lothian is now large enough by itself to form 1 seat (remember this East Lothian doesn’t contain Musselburgh. As a result, Berwick is attacked to Roxburgh to form ‘Berwick and Roxburgh’

Caithness and Sutherland – No change

Dumfriesshire – No change

Dunbartonshire
By now, the entire detached part of the county, containing Kirkintilloch and Cumbernauld is large enough to form a seat by itself. This leads to a re-arrangement by which Bearsden, Milngavie and Clydebank form one seat.

Fife – No change

Inverness-shire and Ross and Cromarty
Inverness-shire is too large. The combination of the two counties was made as the Western Isles straddles them. While the split between the mainland counties may have won out in by the 4th review (with perhaps a switch involving the Isle of Skye) by now it would be too large to ignore; Inverness-shire would have some 92,000 voters. The good news is, she gets two seats. Inverness City composing the burgh and some of the hinterland and, Invernesshire

Kirkcudbright and Wigtown – Galloway – No change

Lanarkshire – The electorates here, excluding Glasgow are more stable than at first glance. Bothwell looses Mount Vernon to the Glasgow seats (which will be split as they are now for sake of ease). Motherwell extends into Dalziel. East Kilbride is reduced to just the new town with the remainder going into Lanark. There’s no change to North Lanarkshire or to Coatbridge and Airdrie and Rutherglen is reduced to south of the Clyde.

Midlothian – No change

Edinburgh – Only very minor changes to internal boundaries

Moray and Nairnshire – No change

Orkney and Zetland – No change

Perthshire and Kinross – No change

Renfrewshire – Only a minor change; Gourock is moved from Renfrewshire West into Greenock and Port Glasgow

Roxburgh, Selkirk and Peebles – Roxburgh is moved out to leave a Selkirk and Peebles seat.

Stirlingshire and Clackmannanshire – No change

West Lothian – No change

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Gary J
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« Reply #2 on: February 27, 2013, 11:39:01 AM »

This is an interesting approach but the Scottish parliamentary boundaries, after the Union and before 1832, were less tied to shire boundaries than in England and Wales. Some district of burgh constituencies included towns in more than one county. Some counties were paired and each county in the pair was represented in alternate parliaments. Orkney and Shetland continued to be linked in a single constituency, as they had been in the Scottish Parliament before the Union.

Boundary changes, in 1832, eliminated the absurdity of representation in alternate parliaments. However an increasing number of county seats included two counties, which did not happen in England until Rutland was combined with part of Lincolnshire in the 1918 redistribution. In the Scottish redistributions from 1868 more seats crossed county boundaries, until there was the three county Roxburgh, Selkirk and Peebles constituency.

Have you considered an approach which apportions seats between the traditional Scottish counties, with each county having at least one seat of its own. Such an approach would increase inequality between constituencies and produce a number of particularly small seats, but giving Orkney and Shetland individual seats in the Scottish Parliament really concedes t the principle. Why should the mainland counties be represented on a less generous basis than the northern island groups?

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afleitch
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« Reply #3 on: February 27, 2013, 12:32:06 PM »

This is an interesting approach but the Scottish parliamentary boundaries, after the Union and before 1832, were less tied to shire boundaries than in England and Wales. Some district of burgh constituencies included towns in more than one county. Some counties were paired and each county in the pair was represented in alternate parliaments. Orkney and Shetland continued to be linked in a single constituency, as they had been in the Scottish Parliament before the Union.

Boundary changes, in 1832, eliminated the absurdity of representation in alternate parliaments. However an increasing number of county seats included two counties, which did not happen in England until Rutland was combined with part of Lincolnshire in the 1918 redistribution. In the Scottish redistributions from 1868 more seats crossed county boundaries, until there was the three county Roxburgh, Selkirk and Peebles constituency.

Have you considered an approach which apportions seats between the traditional Scottish counties, with each county having at least one seat of its own. Such an approach would increase inequality between constituencies and produce a number of particularly small seats, but giving Orkney and Shetland individual seats in the Scottish Parliament really concedes t the principle. Why should the mainland counties be represented on a less generous basis than the northern island groups?



I have simply followed on from the practicalities of the Initial, 1st and 2nd Reviews. The only difference being that in this scenario, there was no local government reorganisation between the 2nd and the 3rd Review. The district burghs, with the exception of Stirling, Falkirk and Grangemouth had already been broadly wiped out.
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13mbuist
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« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2013, 09:58:18 PM »

Not entirely in keeping with the theme of the topic; however, I have prepared a new map which demonstrate how different the result could have been on altered boundaries. In truth, the huge variation in the size of various counties makes a county based model impractical. Instead, I focused on making the overall result more proportional. All the data used in the calculations was taken from electoral calculus

Unfortunately, I am not totally up to speed with how to post images on this site. If you are interested, and are willing to help me out, I could show you what work I have done in a similar field. You may find it useful.
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Sol
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« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2013, 09:42:27 PM »

It's a pity there isn't a DRA equivalent for other countries.
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