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Author Topic: Italy 2013: The official thread  (Read 91114 times)
Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #25 on: June 07, 2012, 11:19:01 am »
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M5S is obviously not corrupt, since until recently they had no officeholder.
It would be hilarious if one or a bunch of M5S city council members ended up in a really huge corruption scandal though. 
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Scottish Robb Stark
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« Reply #26 on: June 07, 2012, 11:33:53 am »
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If I had to rank the parties' corruptness based on the number and gravity of scandals involving their members, PdL naturally stands out as the most corrupt, followed by Lega. Then come the traditionally established parties (PD, UDC, API, etc.) which are roughly tied. Sadly, even IdV is not exacly spotless (the most famous corrupt turncoat which allowed Berlusconi to survive on december 2010 came from its ranks), though there's little doubt Di Pietro himself is honest. Even Vendola has been recently embroiled in some scandal regarding his region, though I don't know how serious the allegations are. M5S is obviously not corrupt, since until recently they had no officeholder.

For the little I've aknowledge, It seemed to be some type of file shredding. Or the guy was doing bad things and Vendola got rid of him without letting the douche come out of the toilet, or Vendola was involved himself, which I find less probable, but proves my point, anyway.
About IdV... I really wasn't aware of that guy (I usually care more about the south than national politics, for silly sentimental reasons) but then... Does that means even then would get onto the Italian political culture antics?

IMO, the only reason is poor candidate selection from Di Pietro and IdV's structure. Sort of like what happened with the NDP caucus in Canada last year: they had to fill the required number of candidacies, and since the party doesn't have many worthy political figures apart from Di Pietro and Orlando, they filled the list which worthless nobodies who were totally unfit for the job. With IdV winning a higher share of the votes than expected, several of these worthless nobodies got elected. There actually have been several cases of former IdV turncoats, but this guy, Domenico Scilipoti, is really the caricature of an unprincipled, incompetent and greedy politician. Hopefully Di Pietro will be more careful this time...
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Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #27 on: June 07, 2012, 11:40:42 am »
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Oh, and a new poll:
PD-25.0%
M5S-20.0%
PdL-17.2%
IdV-7.8%
UdC-6.8%
SEL-6.3%
Lega-4.8%
FdS-2.7%
FLI-2.5%
Destra-1.3%
Holy.  Sh*t.  Holy.  Sh*t.  I seriously hope the M5S surpasses the PD (briefly) in the polls in order to terrify them into holding center-left primaries so Vendola can win and steal back Grillo's momentum.  But God, Grillo as the first (elected) PM after Berlusconi would be SAD.  
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« Reply #28 on: June 07, 2012, 11:54:11 am »
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ROFLMAO ! Grin I promised you an exciting campaign, didn't I ? Wink This is getting epically hilarious...

But don't go too fast, Peter. M5S winning more votes than PD wouldn't mean that Grillo becomes PM, far from that. Remember the voting system : what matters are coalitions. If the system remains the same and if the left coalition is what it is expected to be, today's poll still gives it 41.8% (a bit more if you add PSI and the Greens), far above M5S's lone standing. Of course, everything can happen in terms of coalitions, but the possibility of M5S coalizing with another party is still pretty remote.
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Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #29 on: June 07, 2012, 12:14:34 pm »
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This isn't really any more surreal than the Forza Italia breakthrough in 1994.
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« Reply #30 on: June 07, 2012, 12:22:41 pm »
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What's so bad about the Five Star Movement?
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« Reply #31 on: June 07, 2012, 12:31:23 pm »
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Oh, and a new poll:
PD-25.0%
M5S-20.0%
PdL-17.2%
IdV-7.8%
UdC-6.8%
SEL-6.3%
Lega-4.8%
FdS-2.7%
FLI-2.5%
Destra-1.3%
Holy.  Sh*t.  Holy.  Sh*t.  I seriously hope the M5S surpasses the PD (briefly) in the polls in order to terrify them into holding center-left primaries so Vendola can win and steal back Grillo's momentum.  But God, Grillo as the first (elected) PM after Berlusconi would be SAD.  

I keep hoping Lega Nord drops below that 4%... BUT are they part of the PdL led coalition? or were they i should say. No clue about who is running with who eh? Would the "left of the left" run under a list like last time (i believe Left-The rainbow was a coaltion no?) that way with those numbers FdS with SEL would get in.
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« Reply #32 on: June 07, 2012, 01:58:13 pm »
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What's so bad about the Five Star Movement?

It's literally a joke party.

This really is going to be fun (but possibly very embarrassing) to watch.
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« Reply #33 on: June 07, 2012, 03:14:06 pm »
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Presumably the municipalities it won will attempt to twin-town with Reykjavík?
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
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« Reply #34 on: June 07, 2012, 04:15:20 pm »
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Are there any chances to end with majority prize in Italy until 2013?
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« Reply #35 on: June 07, 2012, 07:24:22 pm »
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You did not think the German electoral system would work in Italy. I know comparatively little about Italy, but historically the German party system was pretty fragmented both in the Empire and the Weimar Republic.

The classic West German two and a half party system (counting the CDU and CSU as effectively one party at the federal level), took several elections to come about. As I understand the German case, the effect of the five percent threshold gradually eliminated smaller parties from the Bundestag. Once a party dropped out from representation it usually became a completely irrelevant minor party. Of course in more recent times Germany has moved into a situation where more parties are represented. The new parties do not seem to be disappearing, so German politics are becoming less stable.

Perhaps the effect of a German style electoral system would be, over the course of several elections, to reduce the number of parties in the legislature and make stable governmental  coalitions easier to form.




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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #36 on: June 07, 2012, 07:47:25 pm »
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ROFLMAO ! Grin I promised you an exciting campaign, didn't I ? Wink This is getting epically hilarious...

But don't go too fast, Peter. M5S winning more votes than PD wouldn't mean that Grillo becomes PM, far from that. Remember the voting system : what matters are coalitions. If the system remains the same and if the left coalition is what it is expected to be, today's poll still gives it 41.8% (a bit more if you add PSI and the Greens), far above M5S's lone standing. Of course, everything can happen in terms of coalitions, but the possibility of M5S coalizing with another party is still pretty remote.
Ah true.  But would it at least scare the PD sh**tless enough that they might be more likely to hold PD (or hopefully even center-left) primaries.
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« Reply #37 on: June 08, 2012, 01:20:52 am »
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Another point that Italy needs is party fidelity. A country where politicians can leave parties without losing mandate is going to instability. This make coalitions to be weak structures, then majority prize is worthless. Ending majority prize with party fidelity would be able to create a legitimate and stable government.
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10 years without Brizola
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« Reply #38 on: June 08, 2012, 02:22:53 am »
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Oh, Vendola isn't doing well anymore? Part of me would love to have him as the Left's standard bearer and the other part of me worries that he'd end up being Prime Minister.
I'd love to see him as the left's standard bearer, and I'd love to see him become PM, because he no longer identifies as a communist, and he has governed the Puglia region pretty pragmatically (cutting red tape for small businesses for example), plus he's got more charisma than a million Bersanis combined.  Btw, to which faction of the PD does Catiuscia Marini belong, out of curiosity?
The Umbria governor is not really a prominent national figure; I guess that she has "normal" PD views.
My friends from Umbria say that she's doing allright anyway.



Great topic Antonio Wink
Just a couple of remarks : Bersani was not the Finance Minister,but rather the Economic Development Minister. Small wording difference,but quite a big change,at least here.
Also,last year the PD strongly supported all 4 of the referendums. The IdV were tbe ones which organized the petition and were more vocal about it, but afterwards PD were not silent at all.

On the whole PD primary discussion: at this point I think that there will be primaries before the elections,but at the same time it's not clear whether they'll be coalition primaries (and God knows who'll be in the coalition by then) or just PD primaries.
My feeling is that Bersani would win anyway.
« Last Edit: June 08, 2012, 02:26:19 am by italianboy8 »Logged
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« Reply #39 on: June 08, 2012, 02:28:06 am »
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What's so bad about the Five Star Movement?

Populism at its best.
Actually,at its worst.
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Scottish Robb Stark
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« Reply #40 on: June 08, 2012, 02:44:19 am »
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Great topic Antonio Wink
Just a couple of remarks : Bersani was not the Finance Minister,but rather the Economic Development Minister. Small wording difference,but quite a big change,at least here.
Also,last year the PD strongly supported all 4 of the referendums. The IdV were tbe ones which organized the petition and were more vocal about it, but afterwards PD were not silent at all.

On the whole PD primary discussion: at this point I think that there will be primaries before the elections,but at the same time it's not clear whether they'll be coalition primaries (and God knows who'll be in the coalition by then) or just PD primaries.
My feeling is that Bersani would win anyway.

Ah, sorry for the mistakes. As I follow Italian politics from the outside, I might not always get everything correctly. Any correction is welcome. Wink


Regarding the German system, Gary might be right about it successfully marginalizing the smaller parties. There are so many parties under the 5% threshold that it would certainly produce some cleansing. That said, would it be enough to produce a working majority ? You would have PD, PdL, M5S, UDC, IdV, SEL and possibly Lega in, and with the M5S polling in high 10s a hung parliament wouldn't be hard to get. If a left majority comes out of this, it will be a razor-thin one (and you know what happens to razor-thing majorities in Italy...). Maybe it could work in the long run, but the political and economic context is in no way comparable to postwar Germany. There, you had the economic boom of reconstruction, and two strong parties able to attract large chunks of the electorate. Here in Italy, both traditional governing parties are in dire straits, and the momentum seems to be on the side of populist forces.
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Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #41 on: June 08, 2012, 07:49:49 am »
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In late 1990's there were over 30 identifiable parties in House. It was funny how an aim to restrict the number of parties lead to huge increase  in the number of them (sadly this all ended in last elections).
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« Reply #42 on: June 08, 2012, 12:12:17 pm »
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Firstly I'll echo everyone else and say this is great work. As well though can I ask a question? My grandfather is from a small town in Avellino called Montefalcione and I was wondering how it votes, is this sort of information available?. Thanks in advance.
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Scottish Robb Stark
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« Reply #43 on: June 08, 2012, 12:45:23 pm »
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Firstly I'll echo everyone else and say this is great work. As well though can I ask a question? My grandfather is from a small town in Avellino called Montefalcione and I was wondering how it votes, is this sort of information available?. Thanks in advance.

The Interior Ministry has a fantastic website which provides the results for every election of any kind since 1946. By using the menu on the right, you will find the results broken down by Region, Province and Municipality : http://elezionistorico.interno.it/index.php

For example, these were the results in your grandfather's town for the 2008 House elections. Smiley

Looks like it's quite left-wing. FFs. Wink
« Last Edit: June 08, 2012, 12:50:46 pm by Objectif 289 »Logged



Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #44 on: June 08, 2012, 12:57:33 pm »
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Firstly I'll echo everyone else and say this is great work. As well though can I ask a question? My grandfather is from a small town in Avellino called Montefalcione and I was wondering how it votes, is this sort of information available?. Thanks in advance.

The Interior Ministry has a fantastic website which provides the results for every election of any kind since 1946. By using the menu on the right, you will find the results broken down by Region, Province and Municipality : http://elezionistorico.interno.it/index.php

For example, these were the results in your grandfather's town for the 2008 House elections. Smiley

Looks like it's quite left-wing. FFs. Wink

Thanks a lot, that website is great. I'm just as pleased to see my relatives are very sensible Wink
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Scottish Robb Stark
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« Reply #45 on: June 08, 2012, 01:19:04 pm »
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That's an awesome website, indeed. Wish all countries had such websites, the French one is an utter joke. Sad

Here are my own roots. It's quite spread all over the place. Wink

Paternal grandfather Right+6

Paternal grandmother Right+21

Maternal grandfather Left+11

Maternal grandmother Valle d'Aostan politics Tongue

Place I lived in Left+19
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Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #46 on: June 08, 2012, 01:31:39 pm »
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Eh... at least you get results at a local level released...
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
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« Reply #47 on: June 08, 2012, 02:54:47 pm »
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I love that website too Cheesy
Quite dispersed roots btw!
The Calabria vote is very influenced by...local factors (ndrangheta) anyway.
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Scottish Robb Stark
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« Reply #48 on: June 08, 2012, 03:18:28 pm »
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I love that website too Cheesy
Quite dispersed roots btw!
The Calabria vote is very influenced by...local factors (ndrangheta) anyway.

It's not like I had not much knowing what Calabria is like. Tongue Did you see the movie Qualunquemente BTW ? A truly excellent (and epically hilarious) satire, really.

Yeah, my family comes from every corner of Italy. Being asked where I come from is my worst nightmare, because it requires half an hour to explain. Grin Especially since my maternal grandparents actually came to live in France decades ago, then my mother came back in Italy to study at Torino's Politecnico. Tongue
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Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #49 on: June 08, 2012, 03:24:11 pm »
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I love that website too Cheesy
Quite dispersed roots btw!
The Calabria vote is very influenced by...local factors (ndrangheta) anyway.

It's not like I had not much knowing what Calabria is like. Tongue Did you see the movie Qualunquemente BTW ? A truly excellent (and epically hilarious) satire, really.

Yeah, my family comes from every corner of Italy. Being asked where I come from is my worst nightmare, because it requires half an hour to explain. Grin Especially since my maternal grandparents actually came to live in France decades ago, then my mother came back in Italy to study at Torino's Politecnico. Tongue

I'm not sure if the Italian part of my familie came from Catanzaro or Reggio, but, with 'those influences' or not, both are as conservative as I would expect.
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