Italy 2013: The official thread

[Formerly Californian Tony]

I love that website too
Quite dispersed roots btw!
The Calabria vote is very influenced by...local factors (ndrangheta) anyway.

It's not like I had not much knowing what Calabria is like. Did you see the movie Qualunquemente BTW ? A truly excellent (and epically hilarious) satire, really.

Yeah, my family comes from every corner of Italy. Being asked where I come from is my worst nightmare, because it requires half an hour to explain. Especially since my maternal grandparents actually came to live in France decades ago, then my mother came back in Italy to study at Torino's Politecnico.

I'm not sure if the Italian part of my familie came from Catanzaro or Reggio, but, with 'those influences' or not, both are as conservative as I would expect.

TBF, there was a great deal of ideological diveristy in Calabria as in the rest of the South, with a sizable share of communists, demochristians, monarchists, MSI guys, and many other parties. If you have a look at this 1946 election map (probably the most interesting election in terms of patterns) you'll notice how colorful it was down there.

Personally, from what I gather my grandfather was a fascist (of those who volunteered to serve in the ranks of the Social Republic after the armistice), my grandmother I'm not sure but I think a more traditional kind of conservative, and yet my father ended up being a communist in his youth.

[Roma Caput Mundi]

I love that website too
Quite dispersed roots btw!
The Calabria vote is very influenced by...local factors (ndrangheta) anyway.

It's not like I had not much knowing what Calabria is like. Did you see the movie Qualunquemente BTW ? A truly excellent (and epically hilarious) satire, really.

Yeah, my family comes from every corner of Italy. Being asked where I come from is my worst nightmare, because it requires half an hour to explain. Especially since my maternal grandparents actually came to live in France decades ago, then my mother came back in Italy to study at Torino's Politecnico.

Yeah I saw it

Anyway what I meant is that Calabria is just as conservative as the rest of the south. Very religious and lower level of education, but often those big margins favoring the right are due to those "external factors"

One could just look at how fell normally insignificant parties do in local and national elections in the South,thanks to these phenomena.

[batmacumba]

Actually, Crotone and western Cosenza were a PCI stroghold and still vote for the left. The fun part is that this is also the voting pattern of Italian families in BH.

[Keystone Phil]

I remember playing around on the Interior website a few years ago. Just as I remembered: my Mom's side in Sicily was just barely left leaning (one of the few areas, right?) in 2008 and my Dad's side in Campania was right leaning. 2006 was a landslide win for the left in my paternal side's town, with Prodi's coalition getting a whopping 65% yet Prodi and Co. only won 54%-46% in my maternal side's town.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Two other polls show M5S above PdL. This is real, guys.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

To be honest, I have no clue. If you ask me about probabilities, I'd say it's 60% no primary, 30% PD primary, 10% left-wing primary. The last thing the PD apparatus wants is having to back a non-PD candidate for PM, no matter if it would be a far more charismatic candidate. This is just my wild guess, nothing more. As for who would win primaries, I really have no idea. It's not like I know the main PD members very well anyways, and anything could happen during the campaing. If you asked me, I'd bet on an outsider though. The people's mood these times is very much anti-establishment, even inside established parties like PD.

Remind me never to do probabilized forecasts again. Bersani announced a couple days ago that the PD will be holding "coalition primaries". Good news for the left, I'd say.

[Peter the Lefty]

To be honest, I have no clue. If you ask me about probabilities, I'd say it's 60% no primary, 30% PD primary, 10% left-wing primary. The last thing the PD apparatus wants is having to back a non-PD candidate for PM, no matter if it would be a far more charismatic candidate. This is just my wild guess, nothing more. As for who would win primaries, I really have no idea. It's not like I know the main PD members very well anyways, and anything could happen during the campaing. If you asked me, I'd bet on an outsider though. The people's mood these times is very much anti-establishment, even inside established parties like PD.

Remind me never to do probabilized forecasts again. Bersani announced a couple days ago that the PD will be holding "coalition primaries". Good news for the left, I'd say.

THANK GOD!  Is Vendola running, or is he likely to?

[Formerly Californian Tony]

To be honest, I have no clue. If you ask me about probabilities, I'd say it's 60% no primary, 30% PD primary, 10% left-wing primary. The last thing the PD apparatus wants is having to back a non-PD candidate for PM, no matter if it would be a far more charismatic candidate. This is just my wild guess, nothing more. As for who would win primaries, I really have no idea. It's not like I know the main PD members very well anyways, and anything could happen during the campaing. If you asked me, I'd bet on an outsider though. The people's mood these times is very much anti-establishment, even inside established parties like PD.

Remind me never to do probabilized forecasts again. Bersani announced a couple days ago that the PD will be holding "coalition primaries". Good news for the left, I'd say.

THANK GOD!  Is Vendola running, or is he likely to?

He will probably run, but I highly doubt he'll win. His momentum is definitely gone and he's now part of the classical political landscape. It's a shame, because he has a real shot one year ago, but he's been unable to find a strong message since then.

I'll still be voting for him if it turns out I can vote.

[Peter the Lefty]

To be honest, I have no clue. If you ask me about probabilities, I'd say it's 60% no primary, 30% PD primary, 10% left-wing primary. The last thing the PD apparatus wants is having to back a non-PD candidate for PM, no matter if it would be a far more charismatic candidate. This is just my wild guess, nothing more. As for who would win primaries, I really have no idea. It's not like I know the main PD members very well anyways, and anything could happen during the campaing. If you asked me, I'd bet on an outsider though. The people's mood these times is very much anti-establishment, even inside established parties like PD.

Remind me never to do probabilized forecasts again. Bersani announced a couple days ago that the PD will be holding "coalition primaries". Good news for the left, I'd say.

THANK GOD!  Is Vendola running, or is he likely to?

He will probably run, but I highly doubt he'll win. His momentum is definitely gone and he's now part of the classical political landscape. It's a shame, because he has a real shot one year ago, but he's been unable to find a strong message since then.

I'll still be voting for him if it turns out I can vote.

Damn.  Why has so much of his momentum gone?  Is it because of that health care scandal?  All I can say is that no offense is meant, but I really hope this prediction turns out like your last one

[Formerly Californian Tony]

To be honest, I have no clue. If you ask me about probabilities, I'd say it's 60% no primary, 30% PD primary, 10% left-wing primary. The last thing the PD apparatus wants is having to back a non-PD candidate for PM, no matter if it would be a far more charismatic candidate. This is just my wild guess, nothing more. As for who would win primaries, I really have no idea. It's not like I know the main PD members very well anyways, and anything could happen during the campaing. If you asked me, I'd bet on an outsider though. The people's mood these times is very much anti-establishment, even inside established parties like PD.

Remind me never to do probabilized forecasts again. Bersani announced a couple days ago that the PD will be holding "coalition primaries". Good news for the left, I'd say.

THANK GOD!  Is Vendola running, or is he likely to?

He will probably run, but I highly doubt he'll win. His momentum is definitely gone and he's now part of the classical political landscape. It's a shame, because he has a real shot one year ago, but he's been unable to find a strong message since then.

I'll still be voting for him if it turns out I can vote.

Damn.  Why has so much of his momentum gone?  Is it because of that health care scandal?  All I can say is that no offense is meant, but I really hope this prediction turns out like your last one

I don't really know why. He just doesn't make the headlines anymore. Even the health care scandal didn't receive much coverage AFAIK.

No offense taken, I wish the same.

[Keystone Phil]

So Vendola is now seen as a typical politician? Great. Maybe I'll root for him to win. It would be great to see him lose a General.

[Roma Caput Mundi]

No one is really talking about Vendola anymore.

[technical support]

i know

[Peter the Lefty]

Any news?  Seems awfully quite here. 

[Formerly Californian Tony]

In short, Italy rejoices because they won twice against Germany last thursday : Super Mario Balotelli scored two goals against them, Super Mario Monti (with the support of Rajoy and Hollande) managed to impose Merkel his conditions on several key issues during the summit. Monti's position (hence the government's stability) is strengthened and nobody talks anymore about snap elections.

The PdL keeps being a joke and is now claiming that Monti succeeded because he followed Berlusconi's advice (yeah, not kidding). Bersani keeps being useless and has clashed with Vendola and Di Pietro recently (I'm not sure I've understood, but from what I gather there are talks of an alliance with the Third Pole).

In other news, it turns out the retirement pension reform was messed up badly, having resulted in tenths of thousands formerly early-retired people now being left without any resources. The government barely seems to care.

That's all I can think about right now.

[Keystone Phil]

...and Maroni is now officially leading Lega Nord.

[Andrea]

In other news, it turns out the retirement pension reform was messed up badly, having resulted in tenths of thousands formerly early-retired people now being left without any resources. The government barely seems to care.

The government and INPS (the National Social Security Institute) don't seem to exactly know how many early retired people there are out there. Every week we get new figures or they find out new people!

The current topic is the spending review. Where will cuts fall? There're the never ending proposals of cutting provinces (it's always proposed recently...but never done!).

[Roma Caput Mundi]

In other news, it turns out the retirement pension reform was messed up badly, having resulted in tenths of thousands formerly early-retired people now being left without any resources. The government barely seems to care.

The government and INPS (the National Social Security Institute) don't seem to exactly know how many early retired people there are out there. Every week we get new figures or they find out new people!

The current topic is the spending review. Where will cuts fall? There're the never ending proposals of cutting provinces (it's always proposed recently...but never done!).

Apprently,half of the provinces are going to be cut.
For the rest,typical spending review made of linear cuts. Disappointing.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

BTW, the new president of Confindustria (Italy's business association) is basically a left-winger. He basically is on the same line as the trade unions, in opposition to Monti's labor market reform.

[Roma Caput Mundi]

BTW, the new president of Confindustria (Italy's business association) is basically a left-winger. He basically is on the same line as the trade unions, in opposition to Monti's labor market reform.

I highly doubt that Squinzi is a "left winger",especially given those who supported him in Confindustria.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

BTW, the new president of Confindustria (Italy's business association) is basically a left-winger. He basically is on the same line as the trade unions, in opposition to Monti's labor market reform.

I highly doubt that Squinzi is a "left winger",especially given those who supported him in Confindustria.

In the context of Italy's current political spectrum, he definitely is. Though I guess Italy's situation is enough to make a left-winger of anybody (except the PdL ).

[Keystone Phil]

What's this I'm seeing about the electoral reforms and Napolitano?

[Roma Caput Mundi]

What's this I'm seeing about the electoral reforms and Napolitano?

He's telling the parties to hurry up and change the ridicolous electoral law we have.
Problem is that there is no agreement on one system between the parties,so probably there will be just some insignificant reform IMO.

[Keystone Phil]

Monti has stated that he will not be a candidate in the next election. Sort of surprising (to me at least) that he even made the announcement. I thought it was understood that he wouldn't run.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Monti has stated that he will not be a candidate in the next election. Sort of surprising (to me at least) that he even made the announcement. I thought it was understood that he wouldn't run.

He has already repeated it a countless number of times, but for some reason the media and pundits (as well as certain politicians) refuse to believe it. I guess Casini and the Third Pole are those who would most benefit from a great "Monti coalition" in 2013, in order to avoid marginalization.