Italy 2013: The official thread

[jaichind]

IPR Poll

Berlusconi   31%
Bersani       28.9%
Grillo           24.5%
Monti            8.8%

SWG Poll

Berlusconi   30.2%
Bersani       29.7%
Grillo           26.9%
Monti            9.5%


 

[jaichind]

Day of reckoning as Bersani seeks to form Italian government

36 minutes to 6pm


Rome (DPA) -- Italian centre-left leader Pier Luigi Bersani was Thursday set to ask whether he can form a government after a weeks-long stalemate, in talks with President Giorgio Napolitano.
The outcome of the meeting, expected around 6 pm (1700 GMT), was uncertain.
Bersani won last month's elections by a whisker but failed to secure a majority in the upper house, the Senate. He has also not gained the support of other political forces.
Napolitano could allow Bersani to form a government anyway, exposing him to the risk of losing a confidence vote in parliament, or designate someone else as prime minister.
Italian media have suggested he could name a high-profile non-partisan figure to lead a a national unity government, which could pass some urgent reforms before fresh elections are held.
Bersani has refused striking a deal with conservatives led by former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi.
The third-largest group in parliament, protest party the Five Star Movement of comedian Beppe Grillo, does not want anything to do with the traditional political parties.
On his blog, Grillo said a new government was "not necessary."
He argued that the outgoing administration led by Mario Monti could stay on while parliament approves a new electoral law, measures to support crisis-hit businesses and other reforms.
Giuseppe Roma, the director of Italy's top research institute Censis, dismissed Grillo's suggestion as "pure folly" in comments to broadcaster SkyTG24.
The political uncertainty was rattling markets.
In morning trade, the yield spread between Italian and German 10-year bonds - a key indicator of risk in the eurozone - rose to 360 points, a six-month high, before dipping below 350 in the afternoon.
Italy has been in a recession since mid-2011 and is plagued with record youth unemployment.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said that the Italian economy would shrink by 1 per cent on an annual basis in the second quarter of 2013.
On Wednesday, Bersani joked that only someone "insane" would want to be in government at this moment, while Monti said he "cannot wait" to hand over the reins to a new prime minister.
If the stalemate on the government cannot be resolved, new elections may be called.
But this cannot happen until parliament votes on a successor to Napolitano - whose term ends in May - forcing parties to strike a deal at least on this issue.
Latest opinion surveys have suggested that going back to the polls would produce a slim Berlusconi win or another hung parliament, unless the electoral law is changed.

[jaichind]

Napolitano Seeks Italy Government Solution as Bersani Fails

March 28 (Bloomberg) -- Italian President Giorgio Napolitano took charge of the search for the next prime minister after Pier Luigi Bersani failed to assemble a majority in the divided parliament.
The stalemate stems from “conditions I considered unacceptable” in the demands of rival lawmakers, Bersani said today after meeting Napolitano at the presidential palace in Rome. The president will consult political leaders tomorrow.
Napolitano, 87, must now find a leader capable of building consensus where Bersani, the 61-year-old head of the Democratic Party, came up empty. Policy differences accumulated during the Feb. 24-25 election campaign hurt Bersani’s ability to lure his main adversaries, Silvio Berlusconi and Beppe Grillo, into backing his candidacy.

[jaichind]

The best case for Berlusconi would be some patched up government based on Bersani and Grillo that soon falls apart leading to new elections.  I am pretty sure Berlusconi comes in with a majority in that case.

[jaichind]

Berlusconi Increases Lead in SWG Poll of Italy Voting Intentions
By Andrew Frye and Chiara Vasarri
March 29 (Bloomberg) -- Pollster comments in statement distributed today by e-mail.
Former PM Silvio Berlusconi’s coalition gains to 32.5% as of March 29 from 30.2% a week earlier: SWG
Pier Luigi Bersani’s coalition rises to 29.6% from 29.4%: SWG
Beppe Grillo’s party falls to 24.8% from 26.9%: SWG
Florence Mayor Matteo Renzi, a Bersani ally, has trust of 55% of voters, ranking first among leaders: SWG
Bersani has trust of 30%; Grillo, 29%; Berlusconi, 26%; PM Mario Monti, 19%: SWG

How interesting Berlusconi has the least trust but leads voting intentions.

[jaichind]

Berlusconi Maintains Lead On Bersani, IPR Poll Shows
By Marco Bertacche
April 16 (Bloomberg) --

Former PM Berlusconi’s coalition leads PD leader Bersani’s bloc 31.7% to 29.5%, IPR poll for TG3 shows. Beppe Grillo’s party at 23%, while Monti’s bloc is at 8.3%: poll

Bonino leads with 32% as favorite candidate for Italy presidency, Rodota 18%, television journalist Gabanelli 15%, Amato 7%, Prodi 6%: poll
NOTE: IPR conducted poll April 16 on 1,000 interviews

[jaichind]

Breaking: Marini Doesn’t Have Votes for Italian Presidency, Tally Shows.  Euro drops.

[jaichind]

The PDL widened its lead over the PD in an opinion poll released today by SWG. Berlusconi’s coalition would win 33.8 percent of the vote if elections were held today, with the PD getting 31 percent. Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement was at 24 percent, SWG said.

[jaichind]

Berlusconi’s Lead Widens as Gap With PD Doubles in Italy Poll
By Lorenzo Totaro
April 26 (Bloomberg) -- Former PM Berlusconi’s lead over Democratic Party’s bloc increased to 5.6 pps vs 2.8 pps last week, Trieste, Italy-based SWG pollster says in survey distributed by e-mail.
Berlusconi’s coalition at 34% vs 33.8% last week: SWG
PD and allies at 28.4% vs 31% last week: SWG
Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement at 25.5% vs 24% last week: SWG
PM Monti’s centrist parties at 8.1% vs 7.7% last week: SWG
Poll conducted April 22-23 on 1,500 intws: statement

[jaichind]

Berlusconi’s Lead Widens in Italy Poll of Voting Intentions
By Chiara Vasarri
May 10 (Bloomberg) -- Former PM Berlusconi’s lead over Democratic Party’s bloc and its allies increased to 5.7 pps vs 4.1 pps last week, Trieste, Italy-based SWG pollster says in survey distributed by e-mail. • Berlusconi’s coalition at 35.9% vs 34.2% last week: SWG • PD and allies at 30.2% vs 30.1% last week: SWG • Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement at 21.8% vs 23.7% last week: SWG • Former PM Monti’s centrist parties at 7.1% vs 7.7% last week: SWG • Poll conducted May 7-8 on 1,500  

I wonder at some stage Berlusconi will create a crisis in such a way as to make it look like PD is not being reasnable (like the real estate tax rebate) to force another election so he can then sweep to power.

[jaichind]

Latest SWG poll.  Has Berlusconi’s coalition at 36.2%, PD and allies at 28.9%, Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement at 22.6%, and former PM Monti’s centrist parties at 6.9%. 

I wonder if this type of lead by Berlusconi would be enough to get him a Senete Majority in an early election.  For sure this type of swing should be enough for Berlusconi to win in places like Piedmont, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, and Lazio which should net him 22-23 Senete seats right there due to bonus effects.  Increased vote shares in other places should net him another 10-15 seats with a 7% lead.  Only tricky part is how many seats Grillo could get which really is a function of the distribution of his vote. 

[jaichind]

June 14 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic Party’s bloc and former premier Berlusconi’s coalition at 34.6%, Trieste, Italy-based SWG pollster says in survey distributed by e-mail.
Berlusconi’s coalition was at 35.5% last week, while center-left bloc including PD was at 31.6%: SWG
Support for Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement drops to 17.9% from 19.9% last week: SWG

It seems that Grillo is bleeding votes to PD.

[jaichind]

Berlusconi’s Lead Widens in Italy Poll of Voting Intentions
By Lorenzo Totaro
July 5 (Bloomberg) -- Former PM Berlusconi’s lead over Democratic Party’s bloc and its allies increased to 4 pps vs 2.9 pps last week, Trieste, Italy-based SWG pollster says in survey distributed by e-mail. • Berlusconi’s coalition at 37.3% vs 36.1% last week: SWG • PD and allies at 33.3% vs 33.2% last week: SWG • Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement at 17.3% vs 18.1% last week: SWG • Former PM Monti’s centrist party and allies at 6.3% vs 6.6% last week: SWG • Poll conducted July 2-3 on 1,500 intws

[jaichind]

Looks like for now the Berlusconi bloc will continue to support the government so no new elections.

[jaichind]

Former PM Berlusconi’s lead over Democratic Party and its allies widens to 5.5 pps vs 4.4 pps last week, Trieste, Italy-based SWG pollster says in survey distributed by e-mail.
 
•Support for parties led by Berlusconi during Feb. election rose to 37.8% vs 35.7% last week:
•Support for PD and its allies during Feb. election at 32.3% vs 31.3% last week:
•Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement at 18.2% vs 20% last week:
•Former PM Monti’s centrist party and allies at 5.6% vs 6.4% last week:
•NOTE: Poll conducted July 30-Aug. 1 on 1,500 intws •

[jaichind]

Alfano has told Berlusconi all the PDL ministers are ready to resign if needed, and Berlusconi said he's ready for a new election.

Well, the scenerio Berlusconi is most likely waiting for is first PDL will Ask for Pardon for Berlusconi, Letta says no, and then PDL quits making it look like it is the PD and allies at fault for bring down this national grand coalition government and then run on that in the election.

[jaichind]

Berlusconi party MPs resign to protest conviction: report
Aug. 2 (AFP) -- Lawmakers from Silvio Berlusconi's People of Freedom Party (PDL) tendered their resignation from Italy's parliament Friday to protest the tax fraud conviction against their leader, media reported.
News outlets in Italy reported that the MPs handed in their resignation to protest the landmark ruling against Berlusconi, who said after meeting them in Rome that his party was prepared to contest fresh polls.

[jaichind]

Berlusconi party MPs resign to protest conviction: report
Aug. 2 (AFP) -- Lawmakers from Silvio Berlusconi's People of Freedom Party (PDL) tendered their resignation from Italy's parliament Friday to protest the tax fraud conviction against their leader, media reported.
News outlets in Italy reported that the MPs handed in their resignation to protest the landmark ruling against Berlusconi, who said after meeting them in Rome that his party was prepared to contest fresh polls.

Because they believe, with reason, that they will be reelected with a larger share of the vote than back in Feb 2013 riding the oppressed political oppisition narrative.  They are ahead in the polls now so why not.
Why would PDL members give up their careers for Berlusconi? It just seems stupid.

[jaichind]

Berlusconi will work to be the Kakuei Tanaka of Italy by handing power to his daughter Marina Berlusconi but rule in the background assuming the Berlusconi's bloc wins the next election.

[jaichind]

Berlusconi will work to be the Kakuei Tanaka of Italy by handing power to his daughter Marina Berlusconi but rule in the background assuming the Berlusconi's bloc wins the next election.

That is an insult to Tanaka, and this is Tanaka I'm saying that about.

I would agree with you if we are talking about the personal lives of Berlusconi and Tanaka.   But in terms public life and corruption I would find Tanaka worse.  Berlusconi before 1994 mostly made his money fair and square.  Sure, there were various scams after 1994 but it has more to do with Berlusconi trying to increase his influence than him reaping economic gains.  Tanaka built a political machine starting in the 1950s and it was all based on corrupt deals based on the construction industry.  When Tanaka was nabbed in 1976 over the Lockheed scandal most people in the know believed Tanaka when he said he did not remember the details of the $3 million bribe because there so many deals where the Tanaka machine was on the take going on at the same time it was too hard for him to keep track.

[jaichind]

Berlusconi bloc still has 4 point lead.



Berlusconi’s Lead Narrows as Five Star Gains in Italy Poll
By Lorenzo Totaro
Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Lead of former PM Berlusconi’s bloc over Democratic Party and its allies narrows to 4 pps vs 5.5 pps on Aug. 2, Trieste, Italy-based SWG pollster says in survey distributed by e-mail.
Support for parties led by Berlusconi during Feb. election fell to 36.2% vs 37.8% on Aug. 2: SWG
Support for PD and its allies during Feb. election at 32.2% vs 32.3% on Aug. 2: SWG
Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement at 20.1% vs 18.2% on Aug. 2: SWG
Former PM Monti’s centrist party and allies at 5.7% vs 5.6% on Aug. 2: SWG
NOTE: Poll conducted Aug. 27-28 on 1,500 intws for RAI3 television program Agora

[jaichind]

Latest poll from TG3 shows Berlusconi’s Bloc and PD-Led Coalition Both at 33%

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Support for parties led by former PM Berlusconi during Feb. election equals backing for Democratic Party-led coalition in general vote, IPR poll for TG3 shows.

Beppe Grillo’s Five Star movement at 21%
Former PM Monti’s bloc at 6.2%: poll

PM Letta’s govt should remain in power, 54% say;
25% want early elections;
15% new govt without elections

Senate should vote in favor of Berlusconi’s expulsion from Parliament, 63% say; 30% against

 

[jaichind]

Latest SWG poll from 9/25

                                                   Latest poll             Feb 2013 elections
Center-Left                                  33.8%                              29.5%
Center                                           5.9%                              10.6%
Center-Right                                36.3%                              29.2%
5 Stars Movement (Grillo)            18.8%                              25.5%
Communist Refounding (Ferrero)   1.4%                               2.3%

Berlusconi still ahead.

[jaichind]

Lets be clear.  Berlusconi had sprung a cleverly prepared trap, exactly like how I thought this entire thing might unfold.   He fought on the topic of the scheduled increase in sales tax from October 1, which ironically enough is the same day of the USA government shutdown. Of course this entire crisis is about Berlusconi personal legal problems but if it comes to elections Berlusconi can fight on the anti-tax platform and sticking it to Brussels since that is where the pressure came to increase the VAT tax.  If there are no elections then that means that Grillo came around to support the Letta government which really just means that this arrangement will not last that long as the Grillo movement might start to melt down.   And in that case a somewhat later next election the Grillo and also the Center Left will just implode leaving the Center-Right, with Berlusconi as either de jure or de facto leader coming to power.

[jaichind]

For some reason Grillo also wants new polls even though polls shows his bloc's support is down from Feb 2013.  Perhaps he feels that going on like this means his support will fall further and a re-shuffle of the political deck might put him in better position.