Italy 2013: The official thread

[SPQR]

Oh, Vendola isn't doing well anymore? Part of me would love to have him as the Left's standard bearer and the other part of me worries that he'd end up being Prime Minister.

I'd love to see him as the left's standard bearer, and I'd love to see him become PM, because he no longer identifies as a communist, and he has governed the Puglia region pretty pragmatically (cutting red tape for small businesses for example), plus he's got more charisma than a million Bersanis combined.  Btw, to which faction of the PD does Catiuscia Marini belong, out of curiosity?

The Umbria governor is not really a prominent national figure; I guess that she has "normal" PD views.
My friends from Umbria say that she's doing allright anyway.



Great topic Antonio
Just a couple of remarks : Bersani was not the Finance Minister,but rather the Economic Development Minister. Small wording difference,but quite a big change,at least here.
Also,last year the PD strongly supported all 4 of the referendums. The IdV were tbe ones which organized the petition and were more vocal about it, but afterwards PD were not silent at all.

On the whole PD primary discussion: at this point I think that there will be primaries before the elections,but at the same time it's not clear whether they'll be coalition primaries (and God knows who'll be in the coalition by then) or just PD primaries.
My feeling is that Bersani would win anyway.

[SPQR]

What's so bad about the Five Star Movement?

Populism at its best.
Actually,at its worst.

[SPQR]

I love that website too
Quite dispersed roots btw!
The Calabria vote is very influenced by...local factors (ndrangheta) anyway.

[SPQR]

I love that website too
Quite dispersed roots btw!
The Calabria vote is very influenced by...local factors (ndrangheta) anyway.

It's not like I had not much knowing what Calabria is like. Did you see the movie Qualunquemente BTW ? A truly excellent (and epically hilarious) satire, really.

Yeah, my family comes from every corner of Italy. Being asked where I come from is my worst nightmare, because it requires half an hour to explain. Especially since my maternal grandparents actually came to live in France decades ago, then my mother came back in Italy to study at Torino's Politecnico.

Yeah I saw it

Anyway what I meant is that Calabria is just as conservative as the rest of the south. Very religious and lower level of education, but often those big margins favoring the right are due to those "external factors"

One could just look at how fell normally insignificant parties do in local and national elections in the South,thanks to these phenomena.

[SPQR]

No one is really talking about Vendola anymore.

[SPQR]

In other news, it turns out the retirement pension reform was messed up badly, having resulted in tenths of thousands formerly early-retired people now being left without any resources. The government barely seems to care.

The government and INPS (the National Social Security Institute) don't seem to exactly know how many early retired people there are out there. Every week we get new figures or they find out new people!

The current topic is the spending review. Where will cuts fall? There're the never ending proposals of cutting provinces (it's always proposed recently...but never done!).

Apprently,half of the provinces are going to be cut.
For the rest,typical spending review made of linear cuts. Disappointing.

[SPQR]

BTW, the new president of Confindustria (Italy's business association) is basically a left-winger. He basically is on the same line as the trade unions, in opposition to Monti's labor market reform.

I highly doubt that Squinzi is a "left winger",especially given those who supported him in Confindustria.

[SPQR]

What's this I'm seeing about the electoral reforms and Napolitano?

He's telling the parties to hurry up and change the ridicolous electoral law we have.
Problem is that there is no agreement on one system between the parties,so probably there will be just some insignificant reform IMO.

[SPQR]

So Monti would have run under Terzo Polo?

The Terzo Polo is dead,as Casini said,but a centrist coalition built around Monti was UDC's dream scenario.
And a few people in PdL and PD liked it as well,I think.

[SPQR]

So Monti would have run under Terzo Polo?

The Terzo Polo is dead,as Casini said,but a centrist coalition built around Monti was UDC's dream scenario.
And a few people in PdL and PD liked it as well,I think.

I know, I know.    I'm just asking if Monti was going to run, would Terzo Polo be his coalition.

Probably more than that.

[SPQR]

This time I will seriously stop talking to anyone considering to vote for Berlusconi.
1994,1996,2001,2006,2008,2013

Ridicolous.

[SPQR]

PdL has no chance regardless of their candidate (and it appears it might be Storace,LOL).
PD's candidate (and IdV and SeL have already said they'll support him) is Zingaretti,the hugely popular President of the Rome province.

He was supposed to be our candidate in the mayoral elections,but since the Regional ones will be before then,they convinced him to "switch candidature".
I am a bit worried about who'll be our candidate for the mayoral ones now,but anyway Alemanno has destroyed any chance of a center-right win.

As for when the Reginal elections will be,they are SUPPOSED to be before Christmas,but there might be an unique "election day" given that in Spring we'll have the national,mayoral and provincial elections.

[SPQR]

On an unrelated noted, 70-80% of Venetians favor independence? Ugh.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/9589732/Mass-rally-in-Venice-to-call-for-independence-from-Italy.html

Lol,never heard of that "Indipendenza Veneta" movement.

In the meanwile,extremely close primary for the centerleft.
Last polls gave Bersani and Renzi around 38%,with Vendola in the 20%s and the others in the low single-digits.
Personally I am still undecided between Bersani and Renzi,even though slightly leaning for Renzi.

[SPQR]

Could someone explain the views of Bersani and Renzi in a few words ? Lazy to wiki them, plus I trust more the people here than wikipedia for these kinds of things...

Bersani - old-style socialdemocrat,simple as that.
 He's not bad as a secretary and as a person,but many of the PD's old guard who support him are simply orrible (like D'Alema and Bindi). He's started to renew the party, but not too convincigly.
I would have no problem voting for him in the general election if he wins the primary anyway.

Renzi - more centrist, even though not even close to the UdC's positions.
He's the mayor of Florence, and his main theme is the renewal of the party.
Economically he is more centrist than Bersani, even though not as much as many depict him.
He's way more charismatic,and attracts many former center-right electors.


Overall the clash between these two is more over "style" than "substance" IMO.
I think I'll be voting for Renzi just to try and have some horrible,horrible people leave the Parliament and the PD's center stage.

[SPQR]

Anyway the primaries will be on two turns, with one voting day each time (a Sunday,even though I don't recall the exact day).

[SPQR]

Things seem to go from bad to worse for PdL - the Governor of Lombardy is now faced with the possibility of Lega Nord pulling out of the Regional Council. Formigoni would then have to rule and run with just PdL which would affect elections in Veneto and Piedmont as they are supposedly part of a joint political agreement.

Lega Nord is threatening to quit because of a personal scandal surrounding Formigoni, in hopes that he'd step aside. It's never good when someone is forced to say they won't resign. Formigoni had to do just that today.

The situation in Lombardia is pathetic.
I've lost the count of the number of PdL and Lega regional councillors who have been forced to resign due to arrests and/or judicial inquiries.
It's a miracle,and a horrible one, that he still is Governor.

He better enjoy what little time left he has, since probably he'll go to jail after the process regarding Lombardia's health care system and Formigoni's corruption.

[SPQR]

The "Prime Minister preference" polls are utterly useless

[SPQR]

The "Prime Minister preference" polls are utterly useless

Of course but it's still interesting. Any idea why Vendola wasn't registering enough support or not included in the poll?

Vendola is polling a decent third in the center-left primaries,and he's got quite a bit of media coverage.
This just shows how those kind of polls are useless,and are used only to give the media some new (small) news.

[SPQR]

And when is the primary? Every time I check for the exact date, I read that it hasn't been set yet but it's at the end of 2012.

25th of November.
The 2nd round two weeks after.

And now,Berlusconi is officially out.
PdL primaries on the 16th of December, with Alfano,Alemanno and Santanchè.
3 complete jokes.

[SPQR]

Alemanno denied he'll run.
In the meanwhile Galan, former governor of Veneto and quite moderate, announced he'll run.

Btw, Santanchè is a complete joke. She was the candidate PM for The Right in 2008, then went back to PdL. She is only famous for her habit of openly insulting people, both on television and on the street.

[SPQR]

The accusations against Vendola,even though not new at all,probably killed any momentum he had.
Bersani vs Renzi,then!

Btw, a major topic at the moment is that of the rules for the center-left primaries.

Those behind Bersani (who are a majority in the internal committees) changed them drastically with respect to the ones used in the past (those used to elect Prodi,Veltroni and Bersani), so as to have as little turnout as possible, thus favouring Bersani.
It's actually one of the reasons I'll be voting for Renzi.

[SPQR]

And just by a total coincidence, two days after stating that he won't be a candidate, Berlusconi is sentenced to four years in prison for tax fraud.

And for 3 years he won't be able to hold any pubblic office.

[SPQR]

And just by a total coincidence, two days after stating that he won't be a candidate, Berlusconi is sentenced to four years in prison for tax fraud.

And for 3 years he won't be able to hold any pubblic office.

Has he resigned yet? When is the prison term starting?

Resign? Are you kidding? LOL
Anyway there will be no jail before the appeal, and given he's pretty old,probably not even afterwards.

[SPQR]

The accusations against Vendola,even though not new at all,probably killed any momentum he had.

Wow.  So the accusations are actually credible?

Health care in Puglia is absolute chaos.
Vendola helped to improve it a lot after that Fitto (PdL,former governor) had destroyed it, but still, one can't rule out that he did something wrong in the meanwhile.

[SPQR]

Sicily is definitely one of the most conservative areas in Italy.
I don't remember the center-left winning regionally ever,honestly.

The victory is due obviously to the break-up in the center-right,but anyway gone are the times when the center-right candidate would get >60% just because of his party.