Italy 2013: The official thread

[Iannis]

The problem with predictions is that we still don't know what will happen with coalitions.
Whether new people (Montezemolo?) will enter the race and the alliances that will be formed.
Moreover 40-50% of people abstain in polls but more than half of them are likely to vote.

[Iannis]

Formigoni just survived a no confidence vote. Is he still trying to position himself to lead the PdL or am I way behind?

No, no more, just trying to ramain in office in Lombardy till 2015

[Iannis]

If Berlusconi doesn't run it doesn't matter. For some reason the Italian right has never developed a rock-solid ideological base of say, 25-30% of voters like the PD.

I don't mean to cause any offence, but I can't get my head around this post. Is it from some parallel universe or other?

Indeed, there is not a single strong party that will always have solid basis of voters like PD, but there is a very big part of electorate (that now in polls are often among "uncertain") that are willing to vote "anything but left".

[Iannis]

No, the elections will be before Xmas, because the law requires to hold elections in 90 days after resignations.

[Iannis]

No, not Alemanno, someone "fresher" probably, like Giorgia Meloni, or supporting someone from another party like PDL did in Sicily

[Iannis]

Alemanno denied he'll run.
In the meanwhile Galan, former governor of Veneto and quite moderate, announced he'll run.

Btw, Santanchè is a complete joke. She was the candidate PM for The Right in 2008, then went back to PdL. She is only famous for her habit of openly insulting people, both on television and on the street.

Interesting about Galan. An Italian friend of mine who is awfully conservative (even by American standards) said he is likely supporting him.

Sounds like Santanchè is going to be a real treat!

No, Santanchè is really a laugh, she has no real support behind her and she's mostly a media-phenomenon. Galan is one of the few real neo-lberal.

[Iannis]

True, but rather unlikely unless PD thoroughly self-nukes and Berlusconi runs a pitch-perfect campaign.

Luckily there's not only Berlusconi. We have to see if Bersani's coalition reach a certain percentage, expecially at the Senate.

[Iannis]

I've been pro-SB for years, now firmly opposed to him because he wants cheap populism rather than economic reform. Therefore I'm supporting PD this time.

Fortunately unlike some countries where voters are unnaturally forced to choose just between 2 parties, we have plenty of alternatives between Berlusconi's populism, and Bersani old style  trade union-led socialdemocracy. For example it's more likely Monti will candidate somehow, and in any case there are liberal parties with  programmes alternative to BErsani and Berlusconi.

[Iannis]

That only makes the vote personally less painful, Iannis. At the end of the day, though, those parties are going to join one of the coalitions so you're still deciding between Bersani and Berlusconi. And let's be realistic: Monti isn't getting enough support to keep one of the other two out of power.

Oh no, centrist parties for sure will run independently alternative to both Bersani and Berlusconi in any case, the only doubt is whether Monti will candidate to premiership explicitly or not. And this would make a big big difference.
Since there is also Grillo's M5S, the race is NOT already between Bersani and BErlusconi,  so why not to have 4 strong candidates?

[Iannis]

...or is the system where the party with a plurality of the vote gets ~54% of the seats going to remain in place?

Yes, but for the Senate the same system is at regional level, so a coalition (or party) can win a region and have the majority of seats and lose in another region and have the minority, so the outcome in seats of the senate can be different from the Chamber of Deputies. That's because for the Constitution the Senate must represent regional equilibriums and the seat distribution can't depend from national outcome. With this system a coalition can have a majority in the Chamber of Deputies but not necessarily in the Senate.

[Iannis]

That's because for the Constitution the Senate must represent regional equilibriums and the seat distribution can't depend from national outcome. With this system a coalition can have a majority in the Chamber of Deputies but not necessarily in the Senate.

But Senate seats are still distributed proportionally based on regional population, correct?

Yes

[Iannis]

The Italian Senate is a complete joke and should be abolished. That won't happen, obviously, because it would drive the Lega insane.

Too be fair to the Senate though, the entire voting system (and the political system over-all) is a joke in Italy.

For sure i wpuld be in favour of a proportional system like in Sweden, but compared to uninominal UK system, or also french one, italian one is a paradise of democracy

[Iannis]

Mont made the smart decision. By running on his own, he would have ruined his "super partes" status and would have ended up as a humiliating third/fourth.

I think that many didn't understand. Monti will run! It's almost sure. He will lead as PM candidate the coalition that accept his agenda. And some parties and single MPs of PDL and PD have already adopted it. So, now the last step is that Monti will accept their support.

[Iannis]

Well, he's not really running. He's encouraging parties to back his agenda and authorizing them to use him as a symbol, but he won't himself campaign. Right?

No he will run as candidate to the premiership and head of his coalition, so he will be a candidate prime minister along with Bersani, Berlusconi, one from M5S and possibly others (Ingroia?)

[Iannis]

I'd recommend going back to the first page; Antonio furnished us with a fair bit of info then.

I apologise for my lazyness in reading the thread from the beginning, and thumbs-up to Antonio for his excellent work!

My takeaways from the initial pages (sorry for mumbling to myself):
1. Italian politics still continues to be driven by personalities, rather than issues (in which it is more comparable to France than, say, countries like the UK, Germany or Spain).
2. Trying to get some structure into the Italian party landscape, it may be grouped like this (I take German parties as reference framework, since this is what I am best acquainted with):
 PD- Social democrats (at their worst German meaning, i.e. somewhere left of center, but without clear direction, and lacking charismatic leadership)
 PdL, VTR, LN, UDC - conservative (christian democratic) in various shades, in most cases more divided by personal rivalry than on issues
 SEL - some kind of amalgam of Greens and The Left (in a way I don't understand, but - on the other hand - is there anybody outside Germany understanding why Greens and Die Linke in Germany will never come together..)
 Grillo/MSS - Italian version of the Pirates (young, urban, anti-establishment, 'let us unite on direct democracy/Internet freedom, everything else we discuss later')
 Orange Movement, IDV - specific Italian, located somewhere close to the left wing of the German FDP and the right wing of the German Greens.

Still, I would love to learn more on the geographical base of all these parties. E.g., on a holiday trip a few years ago I discovered that Apulia is quite different from the stereotypical Mezzogiorno, and I am curious how that plays out politically.

No, I think you didn't get very well the situation, but it's not your fault, Italy's politics is a messy, especially recently, after 15 years of stability (in italian terms...) there is a major "shaking".
So now, for next elections we have:

PD: socialdemocratic, with a pragmatic and not utopistic agenda, in primaries Bersani prevailed with his more Hollande-like position over Renzi's liberal-blairian ones.
SEL: PD ally, former communist, socialist ecologist agenda, in favour of more social spending, state intervention, gay rights, etc, European left in general

 Together with PSI (socialist) and API (centrists) they are the leftist coalition for BErsani's premiership

Then we have
UDC: christian democratic party, with roots in former ruling DC, close to german CDU, with more clientelism, especially in the South but in the last year supported more than others Monti's austerity
ItaliaFutura/Lista Monti: it will be the liberal/centrist list of Mario Monti, inspired to Economist's True Progressivims, so liberal policies with strong reforms of welfare state, to make country more productive, even with unpopular policies, europeist attitude
FLI: Fini's party, it split from Berlusconi's PDL, rightist-liberal party, now very small

With maybe other parties and/or personalities from PD and PDL they are the coalition that will support Monti's premiership

Then
PDL: Berlusconi's party you already know, now stressing on anti-austerity, anti-taxation, also euroskeptic, I think it's now closer to austrian FPO or UK UKIP and euroskepitc Tories
Destra (Right): natianalist, very conservative party, with roots in post-fascist MSI and AN

Together with Grande Sud (southern local party) they will probably support Berlusconi's premiership

Lega Nord: you already know, populist party in favour of retaining taxation in his own region, anti-immigration, it seems difficult they will form again an alliance with Berlusconi

M5S: Grillo's movement, a bit like german Pirate party, with populist elements

Arancioni: Greens, communists, Di Pietro, it's radical left alliance, for an alternative economy, and anti-corruption issues, to the left of SEL, they will support Ingroia for premiership

[Iannis]

I had forgot Fratelli d'Italia, Berlusconi's split-off and ally.
I signal that API will be Bersani's ally with the list "Centro Democratico".
Monti's list will be present also in Chamber of deputies, it will be the Italia futura list, that will adopt a name with "Monti" inside.

[Iannis]

Just so I understand, candidates file for the Primary in constituencies that aren't necessarily where they live by orders of the party leadership (or, if they're renegades or party leaders themselves, wherever they want)? Can they vote in that constituency in the Primary and General or do they have to vote where they actually live if they live in another constituency?

I think that the place where they live is not important at all for the candidacy. But everyone has to vote where they live.

[Iannis]

Monti knows that his weak points can be the alliance with old politicians like Fini and Casini, or the blame to "re-build the DC", together with the Vatican, that's why he said he's not centrist nor a "moderate", and that ethical issues won't be at the center of the campaign, but the economy. He points to give the view of a strong reformist agenda in economic issues, trying not to fuel arguments in other issues.

[Iannis]

that's why he said he's not centrist nor a "moderate", and that ethical issues won't be at the center of the campaign, but the economy.

I understand the latter strategy but he isn't labeling himself as a moderate/centrist for what reason? Is he trying to pass himself off as a leftist on social policy (which just wouldn't seem believable given his alliances/endorsements he has received)? I could understand saying social/ethical issues won't be his focus but I don't know why that means he can't label himself as a moderate.

No, he claims to be liberal (in european, not american meaning), but refufes to be labeled as conservative or centrist, because the latter in Italy is associated with old un-efficient politics, and claims to be keen to radical reforms, so quite the opposite to conservatorism. And beyond left-right labels.

[Iannis]

Sounds perfect for the Monti alliance

No, it seemd that some part of Monti coalition doesn't appreciate Giannino, so he will run on his own. Usual italian clash of personalities, that will only damage the liberal area.

[Iannis]

Quite a clever piece of electoral dishonesty. Might even work.

Why dishonesty?

[Iannis]

Center-Right (No name given yet - PdL/La Destra/FdI-CN/GS)

What is GS?

I suppose Grande Sud

[Iannis]

Quite a clever piece of electoral dishonesty. Might even work.

Why dishonesty?

= Pretending to be beyond left-right labels.

that's because he wants to stress the point that both official right and left don't want to change so much about the rules of economy about liberalizations and labour laws, and so he can be labeled in that way, maybe liberal, socialdemocratic, statalist, populist, are better labels for the politics now, but always not exact.

[Iannis]

You can say what you want but there is literally no way in hell Monti can be labelled as anything other than right-wing.

If you identify liberal with right-wing, well, but it seems that in 2013 we don't use this kind of labels for european liberals. very reasonable

[Iannis]

What happened in this Berlusconi-Santoro interview? I saw one friend (a Berlusconi critic) say something like Santoro and two others that questioned Silvio allowed themselves to get beat up. Even a sports fan page I "like" on Facebook posted about the interview as an "off topic" subject.

Santoro had full interest in supprting a Berlusconi's comeback among center-right voters, to fight Monti's side. Santoro and BErlusconi have even many similar opinions about Europe, and share same anti-austerity bullsh**t feelings