Italy 2013: The official thread

[RogueBeaver]

Berlusconi set to reclaim the PdL leadership tomorrow.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/silvio-berlusconi/9543588/Silvio-Berlusconi-poised-to-announce-political-comeback.html

[RogueBeaver]

If Berlusconi doesn't run it doesn't matter. For some reason the Italian right has never developed a rock-solid ideological base of say, 25-30% of voters like the PD.

[RogueBeaver]

Not coming back. The Italian right needs to find a younger, talented, cleanish leader who can build a new party from scratch- with an interest in good policy, not just good entertainment. Unless/until the right credibly rebuilds the PD will dominate.

[RogueBeaver]

RCM: That sounds like Renzi is more socially liberal than Bersani but more economically moderate, unless I misread your post.

[RogueBeaver]

Now Renzi apparently wants to change the rules- allow people who didn't vote in the first round to vote in the runoff. LOL.

[RogueBeaver]

Isn't the registration fee only 2 Euros?

[RogueBeaver]

If Renzi can coalesce most of the non-Bersani vote. *Crosses fingers* We'll see what happens at tonight's debate.

Has there been any runoff polling?

[RogueBeaver]

Bersani's the incumbent but Renzi's voters might be more enthusiastic... who knows. I'd be surprised if Bersani lost though.

[RogueBeaver]

Renzi won the post-debate snap poll, but got dinged for a last-minute ad campaign in the national papers. Apparently violates the rules.

http://www.gazzettadelsud.it/news/english/24741/Centre-left-primary-candidates-slam-Renzi--violations-.html

[RogueBeaver]

No idea. Maybe one of our resident Italians can answer.

[RogueBeaver]

Apparently the ads are a BFD... are these calls for Renzi to be disqualified and thrown off the ballot?

http://www.liberoquotidiano.it/news/1133738/Primarie-Reggi-tutti-contro-Renzi-potrebbe-essere-espulso.html

[RogueBeaver]

I doubt they throw him off 48 hours before the vote- among other things, ballots have probably already been printed. Plus it would cause a huge sh**tstorm.

[RogueBeaver]

His problem: can't expand the electorate, plus it sounds like his rivals are coalescing in an ABR movement. Result, the establishment hack, as Peter rightfully calls Bersani, will probably win.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-30/italy-s-renzi-faces-primary-defeat-at-hands-of-union-favorite.html

[RogueBeaver]

At any rate, looks like Bersani will win and become Italy's next PM. Berlusconi might run if Bersani wins but I doubt SB can win... the old man has too much self-inflicted damage. IMO a reformist centre-leftist, ideally Renzi, most likely Bersani, would be much better to right (pun intended) the good ship SS Italian Economy.

[RogueBeaver]

Renzi has apparently conceded. Bersani will be the next PM.

[RogueBeaver]

True, but rather unlikely unless PD thoroughly self-nukes and Berlusconi runs a pitch-perfect campaign.

[RogueBeaver]

For those of us who can't read Italian? It sounds like Monti told Napolitano his government no longer enjoys parliamentary confidence.

[RogueBeaver]

I've been pro-SB for years, now firmly opposed to him because he wants cheap populism rather than economic reform. Therefore I'm supporting PD this time.

[RogueBeaver]

My worry is that Berlusconi teams up with the Northern League and works out a confidence deal with M5S, and by running a lowest-common-denominator campaign he picks up enough floating voters to eke out a win. Fortunately he probably doesn't have enough time to do that. He's called Monti Merkel's servant and his papers are going full Greek with her in Nazi garb and plenty of 4th Reich headlines. The slogan might well be Whitlam '75: "maintain your rage", given how unpopular Monti's policies are.


Oh, and apparently he tried to *induce* Renzi into defecting his way. Renzi sent him an open letter basically saying "Piss off, as I've told twice in person, I'm not for sale." Good on him.

[RogueBeaver]

Berlusconi's pitch would've been perfect for PdL... if he or they had any shred of credibility left, which they don't. Right now they're actually behind M5S in certain polls.

[RogueBeaver]

Was Berlusconi drunk earlier today? He said he'd back Monti if he ran as the candidate for the center-right.

And apparently LN isn't going to run with PdL with Berlusconi as the leader. Maroni said Silvio stepping aside would guarantee it though.

So he's screwed, no pun intended. Without LN no way he surpasses PD unless M5S almost completely collapses (and I'm sure they all wouldn't go PdL even if M5S vanished tomorrow) and gets a chunk of undecideds. Though in his miracle scenario I'm fairly sure that LN would crawl back and at least give him confidence.

[RogueBeaver]

Hopefully he runs for President or at least stays on in some ministerial capacity.

[RogueBeaver]

God forbid.

[RogueBeaver]

At least he's no longer the PM candidate. Unless there's some sort of legal loophole where you can do a last-minute, Lautenberg-style switcharoo.

[RogueBeaver]

But there isn't, since Maroni said the coalition deal is off if Berlusconi tries that.