PA-Franklin & Marshall: Romney's Pennsylvania problems continue

[Tender Branson]

48% Obama (+7)
36% Romney (+3)

http://lancasteronline.com/article/local/662921_Poll-gives-Obama-12-point-lead-in-Pa-.html

[ajc0918]

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Poor Mitt.

Poor poor poor poor poor Mitt.

[NVGonzalez]

It was a good choice for Mitt to take PA out of his strategy.

[Brittain33]

AND Republicans are more motivated as many suspect,

What are the polls showing about whether people are "very excited" to vote? We don't have to suspect, this is actually a question on surveys.

[timothyinMD]

Pennsylvania problems?  Hardly.  This poll is a joke -- 16% undecided? 

[Brittain33]

AND Republicans are more motivated as many suspect,

What are the polls showing about whether people are "very excited" to vote? We don't have to suspect, this is actually a question on surveys.

I'm just stating an objective belief that Republicans will be MORE motivated in '12 than in '08.

Sorry - understand that "more motivated" could be read as "more motivated than Democrats."

Some Republicans were pretty damn motivated by Sarah Palin even if they weren't as anti-Obama as they are now. It was Dem motivation + independents voting heavily Dem that made the difference. But motivation may well be up to vote against Obama even if Romney inspires no one. It happened in '04 with Dems who didn't love Kerry but wanted to vote against Shrub.

[DrScholl]

It's a very unionized state, not exactly the best sort of territory for Romney. He didn't even include it in an ad buy, so internal polling must not look to great either. Quinnipiac showed a similar margin last month.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As long as casey is on the ballot here that is obamas firewall.

[Eraserhead]

Pennsylvania problems?  Hardly.  This poll is a joke -- 16% undecided? 

F&M polls are always like that. They don't push people much.

[Smash255]

The partisan sample used in the poll is 50%D, 37%R, 10% Indy (D+13) http://images.lancasteronline.com/local_old/662921/franklinandmarshallcollegepoll06062012.pdf (see pg 8 of 19).

The partisan sample also reflects the party registration of the state: http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt?open=514&objID=572645&mode=2

The 2008 actual turnout in PA, a great year for Democrats, was D+7.

The 2008 actual party registration in PA was 51D, 37R, but even in that huge Democratic year, turnout was only D+7. So if registration is now 50D, 37R, AND Republicans are more motivated as many suspect, a D+13 poll probably wouldn't be too accurate.

You really need to stop confusing Party registration and Party ID.  They are two totally different questions.  This poll asked REGISTRATION not party id which is what the exit polls asked.  As a result the numbers should reflect the registration statewide and should not reflect party id.  Do you grasp this simple concept yet?  Or are you going to be responding with the same clap trap every time??