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Author Topic: FL-PPP: Obama up 4  (Read 1531 times)
Invisible Obama
DrScholl
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« on: June 05, 2012, 02:54:10 pm »
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_605.pdf

Obama 50%
Romney 46%

Obama approval 49-46
Romney approval 39-53

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Speaker Dereich
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« Reply #1 on: June 05, 2012, 02:56:56 pm »
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Also in this: Neither Jeb nor Rubio help the ticket.

Obama-Romney/Bush: 50-45

Obama-Romney/Rubio: 49-46
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ajc0918
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« Reply #2 on: June 05, 2012, 02:58:27 pm »
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50% is a good number for Obama, obviously more polls need to confirm this but Obama's organizing in Florida might be paying off.

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Speaker Dereich
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« Reply #3 on: June 05, 2012, 03:00:12 pm »
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Oh, and the sample is self-identified as:

Democrat: 41
Republican: 40
Independant: 19

2008 Results:

McCain:43
Obama:47
Other: 10
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ajc0918
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« Reply #4 on: June 05, 2012, 03:07:48 pm »
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Current voter registration is 40% democrat, 36% republican , 24% independent I believe, or somethingn close to that.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #5 on: June 05, 2012, 03:18:47 pm »
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Uh, okay.

I used to consider PPP the gold standard of polling, but it is becoming increasingly clear that it has a Democratic slant.

Also, what exactly are voters approving of regarding Romney?
« Last Edit: June 05, 2012, 03:20:19 pm by Tmthforu94 »Logged


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ajc0918
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« Reply #6 on: June 05, 2012, 03:20:49 pm »
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Current voter registration is 40% democrat, 36% republican , 24% independent I believe, or somethingn close to that.

It is. And Florida party registration was 42% Dem, 36% Rep in 2008, when Obama carried the state 51-48% with a D+3 turnout advantage. http://election.dos.state.fl.us/nvra/history.asp

Wow almost 700,000 democrats registered to vote from 2007 to 2008, I wonder what sort of bump will happen this year with the new voter registrtion laws.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #7 on: June 05, 2012, 03:23:04 pm »
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Uh, okay.

I used to consider PPP the gold standard of polling, but it is becoming increasingly clear that it has a Democratic slant.

Also, what exactly are voters approving of regarding Romney?

Please explain why you disagree with this poll, it shows proper registration sampling and a slight decrease in dem voter turnout from 2008. What makes you think this has a "Democratic slant"? I'm just wondering.
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Miles
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« Reply #8 on: June 05, 2012, 03:26:18 pm »
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Entered into database.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #9 on: June 05, 2012, 03:36:01 pm »
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So I am guessing Florida tied, and VA D+3 right now?
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mondale84
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« Reply #10 on: June 05, 2012, 03:37:10 pm »
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PPP has Marco Rubio's job rating at 44/40%
Quinnipiac has it at 54/27%  http://argojournal.blogspot.com/2012/05/poll-watch-quinnipiac-florida-2012_23.html

...it's like they're polling two different planets.

Quinnipiac is a troll organization
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Carlos Danger
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« Reply #11 on: June 05, 2012, 03:41:42 pm »
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PPP has Marco Rubio's job rating at 44/40%
Quinnipiac has it at 54/27%  http://argojournal.blogspot.com/2012/05/poll-watch-quinnipiac-florida-2012_23.html

...it's like they're polling two different planets.

Quinnipiac is a troll organization

Nate Silver rated it the most accurate pollster in 2010.

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tmthforu94
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« Reply #12 on: June 05, 2012, 03:48:58 pm »
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Uh, okay.

I used to consider PPP the gold standard of polling, but it is becoming increasingly clear that it has a Democratic slant.

Also, what exactly are voters approving of regarding Romney?

Please explain why you disagree with this poll, it shows proper registration sampling and a slight decrease in dem voter turnout from 2008. What makes you think this has a "Democratic slant"? I'm just wondering.
I don't think Obama +4 matches up with what national polls are saying, which have Obama ahead by a couple points or so. This is not the first PPP that has done that, though this isn't as far off as some of the others they've produves.
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mondale84
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« Reply #13 on: June 05, 2012, 03:53:30 pm »
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PPP has Marco Rubio's job rating at 44/40%
Quinnipiac has it at 54/27%  http://argojournal.blogspot.com/2012/05/poll-watch-quinnipiac-florida-2012_23.html

...it's like they're polling two different planets.

Quinnipiac is a troll organization

Nate Silver rated it the most accurate pollster in 2010.



This ain't 2010.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #14 on: June 05, 2012, 03:57:39 pm »
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PPP has Marco Rubio's job rating at 44/40%
Quinnipiac has it at 54/27%  http://argojournal.blogspot.com/2012/05/poll-watch-quinnipiac-florida-2012_23.html

...it's like they're polling two different planets.

Quinnipiac is a troll organization

Nate Silver rated it the most accurate pollster in 2010.



This ain't 2010.
Point being?

A claim was made that Q is a troll polling firm - that graph countered the claim by showing Q to be the most accurate in the most recent cycle.
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« Reply #15 on: June 05, 2012, 05:37:47 pm »
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I strongly doubt Obama wins Florida again.  Romney only needs a 1.5-2% improvement over McCain to take Florida.  He's at that right now easily. 

Florida's very Republican friendly
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Sbane
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« Reply #16 on: June 05, 2012, 07:08:29 pm »
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Also in this: Neither Jeb nor Rubio help the ticket.

Obama-Romney/Bush: 50-45

Obama-Romney/Rubio: 49-46

PPP's "voter" sample is 41% Dem, 40% Rep, 19% Indy (D+1). 2008 Florida turnout was D+3 (37D/34R/29I), while 2004 Florida turnout was R+4 (37D/41R/23I).

Here's RCP's summary of all Florida polls taken in last month and a half. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html Like every other swing-state, PPP has Obama doing better in Florida than any other pollster, save NBC. http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/06/ppp-battleground-polls-skewed-in-favor.html

Why don't you look at the 2010 exit poll's partisan affiliation? It's likely the partisan id in 2012 will be somewhere between 2008 and 2010.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #17 on: June 05, 2012, 07:39:18 pm »
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This is one of the funnier polls I've seen.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: June 05, 2012, 11:13:43 pm »
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I strongly doubt Obama wins Florida again.  Romney only needs a 1.5-2% improvement over McCain to take Florida.  He's at that right now easily. 

Florida's very Republican friendly

No change from 2008 in statewide voting practices is easy, and even if it seems to have happened it is shaky.

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Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.49
krazen1211
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« Reply #19 on: June 06, 2012, 11:32:32 am »
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Great news for Romney given the required PPP house adjustment.
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Miles
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« Reply #20 on: June 06, 2012, 11:35:53 am »
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Great news for Romney given the required PPP house adjustment.

Yes, its a closer race after we apply the karzen1211 corollary of the MilesC56 rule.
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #21 on: June 06, 2012, 03:08:50 pm »
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And people insist this election is going to be competitive? Seriously?
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A.G. Snowstalker
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« Reply #22 on: June 06, 2012, 06:38:40 pm »
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PPP tends to be heavily skewed early on, getting more accurate before the election.
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Carlos Danger
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« Reply #23 on: June 06, 2012, 06:39:46 pm »
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PPP tends to be heavily skewed early on, getting more accurate before the election.

In Wisconsin it went from super-skewed to just somewhat skewed (it looked sort of like Rasmussen in 2010, actually).
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