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Author Topic: Wisconsin Recall: Swing Map  (Read 2211 times)
Nagas
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« on: June 06, 2012, 01:31:40 am »
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The percent swing toward either Barrett or Walker in tonight's election. I apologize for not using strict atlas colours or for using sharper colours to illustrate a contrast.


There really wasn't a strong swing in either direction for either candidate, which matches the meager 1% shift from 2010.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2012, 01:33:30 am by Nagas »Logged

LiberalJunkie
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« Reply #1 on: June 06, 2012, 01:34:05 am »
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Results from Huffington Post
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greenforest32
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« Reply #2 on: June 06, 2012, 01:39:20 am »
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Bad Wisconsin.

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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: June 06, 2012, 02:39:22 am »
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I guess its not surprising that the core counties in the Circle of Ignorance swung towards Walker.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #4 on: June 06, 2012, 08:20:48 am »
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I guess its not surprising that the core counties in the Circle of Ignorance swung towards Walker.
could you draw this circle for me?
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Miles
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« Reply #5 on: June 06, 2012, 08:41:32 am »
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I guess its not surprising that the core counties in the Circle of Ignorance swung towards Walker.
could you draw this circle for me?

Its a DKE term meaning:

 The disgustingly Republican suburbs of Milwaukee, namely Waukesha, Washington, and Ozaukee counties. They have our undying enmity for voting almost three-to-one against such Democrats as Sen. John Kerry (in 2004), Sen. Russ Feingold (in 2010), and JoAnne Kloppenburg (in 2011).
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #6 on: June 06, 2012, 09:38:47 am »
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I guess its not surprising that the core counties in the Circle of Ignorance swung towards Walker.
could you draw this circle for me?

Its a DKE term meaning:

 The disgustingly Republican suburbs of Milwaukee, namely Waukesha, Washington, and Ozaukee counties. They have our undying enmity for voting almost three-to-one against such Democrats as Sen. John Kerry (in 2004), Sen. Russ Feingold (in 2010), and JoAnne Kloppenburg (in 2011).
Thank you. 
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Vosem
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« Reply #7 on: June 06, 2012, 10:12:12 am »
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I guess its not surprising that the core counties in the Circle of Ignorance swung towards Walker.
could you draw this circle for me?

Its a DKE term meaning:

 The disgustingly Republican suburbs of Milwaukee, namely Waukesha, Washington, and Ozaukee counties. They have our undying enmity for voting almost three-to-one against such Democrats as Sen. John Kerry (in 2004), Sen. Russ Feingold (in 2010), and JoAnne Kloppenburg (in 2011).

I am familiar with DKE terminology, but that's rather stupid. Those counties form Half a Semicircle of Ignorance (if you're going to consider voting consistently, strongly Republican ignorance, but this is DKE so I'll take that for granted).


There really wasn't a strong swing in either direction for either candidate, which matches the meager 1% shift from 2010.

Your map seems to show the northern half of the state swung towards Walker (except for the Lake Superior coast, which had no particular swing), while the more densely populated southern half didn't really swing at all. So there seems to have been a noticeable, but weak, swing for Walker.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #8 on: June 06, 2012, 11:25:27 am »
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Turnout figures:

2008:
Total Wisconsin vote: 2.93 m
Dane/Milwaukee: 748k
Share: 25.5%

2010:
Total Wisconsin vote: 2.13 m
Dane/Milwaukee: 556k
Share: 26.1%

2012 recall:

Total Wisconsin vote: 2.49 m
Dane/Milwaukee: 645k
Share: 25.8%





But, please continue with the idea that 'Democrats didn't turn out', or that you can somehow win elections by 'massive' turnout in 25% of the state.
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Miles
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« Reply #9 on: June 06, 2012, 11:31:43 am »
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I guess its not surprising that the core counties in the Circle of Ignorance swung towards Walker.

There's that liberal Democrat cry-baby sore loserism that I was expecting

Yeah...except I don't particularly mind Walker.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #10 on: June 06, 2012, 11:48:31 am »
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But, please continue with the idea that 'Democrats didn't turn out', or that you can somehow win elections by 'massive' turnout in 25% of the state.
That's why the wis-dems and even the national dems are so prone to making huge blunders.  They live in these bubble-enclaves that are surrounded by reality.  Mob mentality is a natural result of their situation.  It's unhealthy. 
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Torie
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« Reply #11 on: June 06, 2012, 12:53:40 pm »
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I guess its not surprising that the core counties in the Circle of Ignorance swung towards Walker.
could you draw this circle for me?

Its a DKE term meaning:

 The disgustingly Republican suburbs of Milwaukee, namely Waukesha, Washington, and Ozaukee counties. They have our undying enmity for voting almost three-to-one against such Democrats as Sen. John Kerry (in 2004), Sen. Russ Feingold (in 2010), and JoAnne Kloppenburg (in 2011).

Try "crescent" next time. Smiley You know, like the "capitalist crescent."  How about calling Dane and Milwaukee the "pockets of purloinment?" Two can play the name calling name you know. Tongue
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #12 on: June 06, 2012, 01:06:27 pm »
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I guess its not surprising that the core counties in the Circle of Ignorance swung towards Walker.
could you draw this circle for me?

Its a DKE term meaning:

 The disgustingly Republican suburbs of Milwaukee, namely Waukesha, Washington, and Ozaukee counties. They have our undying enmity for voting almost three-to-one against such Democrats as Sen. John Kerry (in 2004), Sen. Russ Feingold (in 2010), and JoAnne Kloppenburg (in 2011).

Try "crescent" next time. Smiley You know, like the "capitalist crescent."  How about calling Dane and Milwaukee the "pockets of purloinment?" Two can play the name calling name you know. Tongue
Madison is known around the state as (20 to 80) square miles "surrounded by reality."

Governor Lee Sherman Dreyfus labeled Madison as "30 square miles surrounded by reality" but he was wrong. The incorporated areas of the city now total about 76 square miles.  

People randomly change the number and interchange Madison with Dane county.  It is a perfect description.  I love Madison.  The people there just don't live in reality.  
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Nathan
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« Reply #13 on: June 06, 2012, 01:36:17 pm »
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I guess its not surprising that the core counties in the Circle of Ignorance swung towards Walker.
could you draw this circle for me?

Its a DKE term meaning:

 The disgustingly Republican suburbs of Milwaukee, namely Waukesha, Washington, and Ozaukee counties. They have our undying enmity for voting almost three-to-one against such Democrats as Sen. John Kerry (in 2004), Sen. Russ Feingold (in 2010), and JoAnne Kloppenburg (in 2011).

Try "crescent" next time. Smiley You know, like the "capitalist crescent."  How about calling Dane and Milwaukee the "pockets of purloinment?" Two can play the name calling name you know. Tongue
Madison is known around the state as (20 to 80) square miles "surrounded by reality."

Governor Lee Sherman Dreyfus labeled Madison as "30 square miles surrounded by reality" but he was wrong. The incorporated areas of the city now total about 76 square miles.   

People randomly change the number and interchange Madison with Dane county.  It is a perfect description.  I love Madison.  The people there just don't live in reality. 


The other possibility is that nowhere except Madison lives in reality. A sort of Zhuangzi-type situation. One must admit that even if true that isn't exactly helpful practically speaking.

Vosem, the Lake Superior coast proper looks like it pretty clearly swung Democratic, unless we're counting it as part of a broader area that isn't as broad as 'northern Wisconsin'.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2012, 08:37:38 pm by Nathan »Logged

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Torie
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« Reply #14 on: June 06, 2012, 09:26:53 pm »
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the Lake Superior coast proper looks like it pretty clearly swung Democratic, unless we're counting it as part of a broader area that isn't as broad as 'northern Wisconsin'.

Maybe the "Finnish vote" (a silly comment made by Barone), is turning back to the Dems, in which event maybe Craavack is in real trouble. Smiley More to the point, it probably is pretty heavily unionized up there (dock workers and the like up there in Superior).
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brittain33
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« Reply #15 on: June 07, 2012, 08:16:02 am »
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the Lake Superior coast proper looks like it pretty clearly swung Democratic, unless we're counting it as part of a broader area that isn't as broad as 'northern Wisconsin'.

Maybe the "Finnish vote" (a silly comment made by Barone), is turning back to the Dems, in which event maybe Craavack is in real trouble. Smiley More to the point, it probably is pretty heavily unionized up there (dock workers and the like up there in Superior).

Duffy's going to have problems but he's one of the early sets Dems would take back - far from that 218th seat we're not going to get this fall.
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #16 on: June 07, 2012, 01:20:32 pm »
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The percent swing toward either Barrett or Walker in tonight's election. I apologize for not using strict atlas colours or for using sharper colours to illustrate a contrast.


There really wasn't a strong swing in either direction for either candidate, which matches the meager 1% shift from 2010.

Note the distinct pattern of the shorter the bus ride from out of state the closer to the border the greater swing towards the Democrat.
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Nathan
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« Reply #17 on: June 07, 2012, 01:22:30 pm »
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The percent swing toward either Barrett or Walker in tonight's election. I apologize for not using strict atlas colours or for using sharper colours to illustrate a contrast.


There really wasn't a strong swing in either direction for either candidate, which matches the meager 1% shift from 2010.

Note the distinct pattern of the shorter the bus ride from out of state the closer to the border the greater swing towards the Democrat.

If you seriously think that that, as opposed to proximity to traditional commerce routes/major cities, is the deciding factor, then there's something really off about your analysis of voting patterns.
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Lt. Governor TJ
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« Reply #18 on: June 07, 2012, 02:17:21 pm »
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the Lake Superior coast proper looks like it pretty clearly swung Democratic, unless we're counting it as part of a broader area that isn't as broad as 'northern Wisconsin'.

Maybe the "Finnish vote" (a silly comment made by Barone), is turning back to the Dems, in which event maybe Craavack is in real trouble. Smiley More to the point, it probably is pretty heavily unionized up there (dock workers and the like up there in Superior).

Duffy's going to have problems but he's one of the early sets Dems would take back - far from that 218th seat we're not going to get this fall.

If I'm Duffy, I like the look of this swing map. Sure the Lake Superior coast shore Tongue swung toward the Democrats but the rest of his district more than cancels that out. There just aren't that many people in Superior.
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« Reply #19 on: June 07, 2012, 02:36:51 pm »
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the Lake Superior coast proper looks like it pretty clearly swung Democratic, unless we're counting it as part of a broader area that isn't as broad as 'northern Wisconsin'.

Maybe the "Finnish vote" (a silly comment made by Barone), is turning back to the Dems, in which event maybe Craavack is in real trouble. Smiley More to the point, it probably is pretty heavily unionized up there (dock workers and the like up there in Superior).

Duffy's going to have problems but he's one of the early sets Dems would take back - far from that 218th seat we're not going to get this fall.

If I'm Duffy, I like the look of this swing map. Sure the Lake Superior coast shore Tongue swung toward the Democrats but the rest of his district more than cancels that out. There just aren't that many people in Superior.

Superior is a pretty big Dem node (buttressed a bit more by two adjacent counties, one of which is where Duffy lives, but he got almost no homeboy tailwind for some reason when he ran in 2010), while the blue counties up there don't have many people. The biggest offset is Marathon County actually (Wausau) I suspect if you crunched the numbers. That is the most populated county in the CD going away (well maybe St Croix isn't that much smaller, I'm not sure).
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krazen1211
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« Reply #20 on: June 07, 2012, 02:48:14 pm »
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the Lake Superior coast proper looks like it pretty clearly swung Democratic, unless we're counting it as part of a broader area that isn't as broad as 'northern Wisconsin'.

Maybe the "Finnish vote" (a silly comment made by Barone), is turning back to the Dems, in which event maybe Craavack is in real trouble. Smiley More to the point, it probably is pretty heavily unionized up there (dock workers and the like up there in Superior).

Duffy's going to have problems but he's one of the early sets Dems would take back - far from that 218th seat we're not going to get this fall.

If I'm Duffy, I like the look of this swing map. Sure the Lake Superior coast shore Tongue swung toward the Democrats but the rest of his district more than cancels that out. There just aren't that many people in Superior.

In addition his 2010 opponent was gerrymandered out.
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Lt. Governor TJ
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« Reply #21 on: June 07, 2012, 02:59:46 pm »
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Counties in WI-7 that trended toward Walker: Burnett, Polk, Washburn, Barron, Rusk, Chippewa (part of county), Ashland, Iron, Price, Taylor, Clark, Jackson (part), Monroe (part), Wood (part), Marathon, Lincoln, Langlade, Oneida, Forest

Counties in WI-7 that trended away from Walker: Douglas, Bayfield, Sawyer, St. Croix, Juneau (part), Vilas, Florence

I haven't crunched the numbers but it doesn't look like it would be particularly close.
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Torie
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« Reply #22 on: June 07, 2012, 03:09:39 pm »
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the Lake Superior coast proper looks like it pretty clearly swung Democratic, unless we're counting it as part of a broader area that isn't as broad as 'northern Wisconsin'.

Maybe the "Finnish vote" (a silly comment made by Barone), is turning back to the Dems, in which event maybe Craavack is in real trouble. Smiley More to the point, it probably is pretty heavily unionized up there (dock workers and the like up there in Superior).

Duffy's going to have problems but he's one of the early sets Dems would take back - far from that 218th seat we're not going to get this fall.

Duffy's CD is 0.38% Dem PVI just to toss that into the mix. I also give 3 points to an incumbent as a rule, if proven to be reasonably competent. So in an even election, lean Pub is my call (assuming Duffy is reasonably competent), putting aside this Walker trend business for whatever it is worth which someone I guess will crunch out.  I would guess it's around the 15th-20th or so most vulnerable Pub seats in ranking.
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brittain33
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« Reply #23 on: June 07, 2012, 04:17:57 pm »
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the Lake Superior coast proper looks like it pretty clearly swung Democratic, unless we're counting it as part of a broader area that isn't as broad as 'northern Wisconsin'.

Maybe the "Finnish vote" (a silly comment made by Barone), is turning back to the Dems, in which event maybe Craavack is in real trouble. Smiley More to the point, it probably is pretty heavily unionized up there (dock workers and the like up there in Superior).

Duffy's going to have problems but he's one of the early sets Dems would take back - far from that 218th seat we're not going to get this fall.

Duffy's CD is 0.38% Dem PVI just to toss that into the mix. I also give 3 points to an incumbent as a rule, if proven to be reasonably competent. So in an even election, lean Pub is my call (assuming Duffy is reasonably competent), putting aside this Walker trend business for whatever it is worth which someone I guess will crunch out.  I would guess it's around the 15th-20th or so most vulnerable Pub seats in ranking.

Duffy came out of nowhere (other than The Real World) and had a bunch of YouTube gaffes last year complaining about how poor he is on his congressional salary. I don't think he's unreasonably incompetent but I don't see his getting a bump for having been elected in the Tea Party election that someone like Nan Hayworth or one of the Philly-area Pubs would get.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #24 on: June 07, 2012, 10:05:09 pm »
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The percent swing toward either Barrett or Walker in tonight's election. I apologize for not using strict atlas colours or for using sharper colours to illustrate a contrast.


There really wasn't a strong swing in either direction for either candidate, which matches the meager 1% shift from 2010.

Note the distinct pattern of the shorter the bus ride from out of state the closer to the border the greater swing towards the Democrat.

If you seriously think that that, as opposed to proximity to traditional commerce routes/major cities, is the deciding factor, then there's something really off about your analysis of voting patterns.
That is probably only a factor in Kenosha, Racine, and Milwaukee counties. Not saying you can pick that up from a map though. 
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