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| | |-+  2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Tender Branson, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | | |-+  PPP/DailyKos weekly poll has Obama up 8
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Author Topic: PPP/DailyKos weekly poll has Obama up 8  (Read 1606 times)
ℒief
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« Reply #25 on: June 06, 2012, 10:50:08 pm »
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Poll that shows Romney ahead" Good news! we have a chance of taking america back from the commie!

Poll that shows Obama ahead "Trash poll!"

Trash poll is the automatic response of every dem hack on these boards to a Rasmussen poll.

Because Rasmussen is objectively a trash polling firm.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #26 on: June 06, 2012, 10:51:49 pm »
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The PPP bashing is hilarious. They were off by like 3 or 4 points. Big freakin' whoop. It happens.
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Grad Students are the Worst
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« Reply #27 on: June 06, 2012, 11:07:53 pm »
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"But that's pretty poor compared to how many pollsters GOT IT RIGHT" -- Why do you find this meaningful?  

I'll send you the updated Nate Silver rankings when they come out. That's how it is meaningful.

You can defend that statement, I suppose, (although it will have a very marginal effect) but how do you defend "After a stellar polling job in last night's Wisconsin recall (NOT)"?  You have rather low confidence (probably less than ~70-75%) that's true.

"Bias" in statistics is not the same as "house effect," which matches the colloquial definition of "bias."  Statistical bias is any deviation from the population parameter.

Repeatedly missing in 1 direction like they did with Amendment 1 is a sign of putting out nonsense.

1. The average systemic bias on gay marriage polls (-7) is greater than the average systemic bias on other polls, indicating it may not just be the pollster's screw-up.

2. Show me something with actual statistical analysis and I will entertain your conclusions.  Otherwise, how do you not know you're accidentally cherry-picking?
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Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
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« Reply #28 on: June 06, 2012, 11:22:32 pm »
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Compared to the polls released in the last 2 weeks, PPP did not have a good performance. About 5 pollsters were more on the mark than them in the Wisconsin recall. That's how statiscians, like Nate Silver, rank pollsters. That's also why I said "After a stellar polling job in last night's Wisconsin recall (NOT)." I said that because, comparatively, PPP missed the mark more than about FIVE OTHER POLLSTERS. You say that doesn't matter. Then send Nate Silver an email.

I did not say "that doesn't matter."  You are consistently imprecise in both your debates and numerical analysis.
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Grad Students are the Worst
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« Reply #29 on: June 06, 2012, 11:51:58 pm »
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I did not say "that doesn't matter."  You are consistently imprecise in both your debates and numerical analysis.
Right. Thank you, godfather.

I don't know what that's supposed to mean, but whenever you'd like to respond to points actually included in the words I typed...
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LastVoter
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« Reply #30 on: June 07, 2012, 12:21:32 am »
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So 48-44 without the PPP handicap.
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Umengus
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« Reply #31 on: June 07, 2012, 12:09:11 pm »
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junk poll of course...

Party id sample: D + 9

LOL !

And Romney wins I by 1...
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm  

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
zorkpolitics
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« Reply #32 on: June 10, 2012, 06:19:13 pm »
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My rule of thumb for PPP polls: add 2 pts to the Republican and subtract 2 from the Democrat, so this would be Obama up 48-44. 
But even that seems a bit optimistic given Ras and Gallup have Romney up 1 today and RealClear has the average of polls Obama up only 1.3%
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"Scientists are treacherous allies on committees, for they are apt to change their minds in response to arguments" C.M. Bowra
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