Do you think Romney needs a Southern running mate?
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  Do you think Romney needs a Southern running mate?
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Author Topic: Do you think Romney needs a Southern running mate?  (Read 3136 times)
BaldEagle1991
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« on: June 07, 2012, 06:30:30 AM »

For some reason if he picks a Southern running mate, it would help appeal to Bible Belt voters who have been turned off by Romney's Mormonism. As well as help make it a more close race, as that idea could potentially make FL, GA, and NC much less close.
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WhyteRain
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« Reply #1 on: June 07, 2012, 07:33:09 AM »

1.  Of all religious groups in America, Evangelicals are the least bigoted.

2.  Between the Potomac and Rio Grande rivers are 180 electoral votes.  Obama won't get a single one no matter who Romney picks for Veep.

3.  My only prediction on Romney's Veep is that he'll pick someone with D.C. experience.  At least, that would be the "safe" play.
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Donerail
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« Reply #2 on: June 07, 2012, 08:01:37 AM »

1.  Of all religious groups in America, Evangelicals are the least bigoted.

2.  Between the Potomac and Rio Grande rivers are 180 electoral votes.  Obama won't get a single one no matter who Romney picks for Veep.

3.  My only prediction on Romney's Veep is that he'll pick someone with D.C. experience.  At least, that would be the "safe" play.

1. Yeah no.

2. Between the Potomac and Rio Grande are 180 electoral votes. Obama can win as a cautious projection 57 (VA, NC, FL) of them, and could get (in event of landslide) 82 (+GA, SC).

3. This is the only reasonable one of the bunch.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #3 on: June 07, 2012, 08:19:25 AM »

1.  Of all religious groups in America, Evangelicals are the least bigoted.

2.  Between the Potomac and Rio Grande rivers are 180 electoral votes.  Obama won't get a single one no matter who Romney picks for Veep.

3.  My only prediction on Romney's Veep is that he'll pick someone with D.C. experience.  At least, that would be the "safe" play.


1. I would say that's not true to an extent. 

2. There's a high possibility he'll get VA no matter what.

3. Perhaps a Southern Senator would do here, but I think he needs a Southern running mate, the Evangelical Bible Belt votes are what he has a hard time trying to get, and yet needs.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #4 on: June 07, 2012, 08:39:39 AM »

They already hate Obama, so it'd be a wasted opportunity to pick someone else.
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anvi
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« Reply #5 on: June 07, 2012, 08:46:29 AM »

Nope.  Romney will sweep everything from North Carolina on down the coast (though Florida will be a real fight and could go either way), and he will also sweep the middle corridor of the country south to north, no matter who he picks.  If I were Romney, I'd go with Portman, both because Portman would make an outstanding VP and because he would give me the best shot to pick off Ohio.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #6 on: June 07, 2012, 10:29:14 AM »

There's not much evidence of regional affiliation with voters these days.  Besides, the region that Romney most needs to bolster is not the South but the Midwest.  Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan Indiana, and Ohio are all shaping up to be close enough that it is conceivable they could be swung by hard campaigning alone,  (Michigan and Indiana just barely, but they are close enough the campaigns need to be active there.)

Actually, if Romney decides to appeal to the base with a social conservative or tea party type, it had better not be a Southern, or he'll risk turning off Midwestern swing voters.  If Romney goes with a running mate to his right, he needs to come from the Midwest or West.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #7 on: June 07, 2012, 11:05:44 AM »

1.  Of all religious groups in America, Evangelicals are the least bigoted.

Just...no.
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Kevin
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« Reply #8 on: June 07, 2012, 11:21:39 AM »
« Edited: June 07, 2012, 11:23:57 AM by Kevin »

1.  Of all religious groups in America, Evangelicals are the least bigoted.

2.  Between the Potomac and Rio Grande rivers are 180 electoral votes.  Obama won't get a single one no matter who Romney picks for Veep.

3.  My only prediction on Romney's Veep is that he'll pick someone with D.C. experience.  At least, that would be the "safe" play.


1. I would say that's not true to an extent.  

2. There's a high possibility he'll get VA no matter what.

3. Perhaps a Southern Senator would do here, but I think he needs a Southern running mate, the Evangelical Bible Belt votes are what he has a hard time trying to get, and yet needs.

Emmm no......Virginia is far from guaranteed for Obama. Esp. after the recent job's report and other related news.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #9 on: June 07, 2012, 11:40:06 AM »

1.  Of all religious groups in America, Evangelicals are the least bigoted.

2.  Between the Potomac and Rio Grande rivers are 180 electoral votes.  Obama won't get a single one no matter who Romney picks for Veep.

3.  My only prediction on Romney's Veep is that he'll pick someone with D.C. experience.  At least, that would be the "safe" play.


1. I would say that's not true to an extent. 

2. There's a high possibility he'll get VA no matter what.

3. Perhaps a Southern Senator would do here, but I think he needs a Southern running mate, the Evangelical Bible Belt votes are what he has a hard time trying to get, and yet needs.

Emmm no......Virginia is far from guaranteed for Obama. Esp. after the recent job's report and other related news.
Do you know what "high possibility" means?
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milhouse24
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« Reply #10 on: June 07, 2012, 12:14:19 PM »

I think Thune is far better to appeal to Evangelicals.  Most will stay home rather than vote for Obama or Romney, and that is far more dangerous to Romney.  GOTV is extremely important and essential in close elections.  Dubya Bush won both campaigns with strong christian GOTV.  Also, Portman is seen as a moderate, and Romney is seen as a moderate, and that won't appeal to base voters. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #11 on: June 07, 2012, 01:02:21 PM »

1.  Of all religious groups in America, Evangelicals are the least bigoted.

Debatable.

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Wishful thinking. Mitt Romney needs every one of those 180 electoral votes between the Potomac and the Rio Grande and he must be able to take them for granted if he is to have a chance. If President Obama wins even Arkansas or West Virginia (chosen for small number of electoral votes)... it is over. He also has to win Colorado, Missouri, and Ohio to have a meaningful chance of winning.  

Virginia looks like about a 60% chance of a win for the President. Florida and North Carolina are legitimate tossups.    

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Here's the big point: if Mitt Romney has to solidify his hold in the South except in Florida, North Carolina, or Virginia, then President Obama is on the brink of a landslide analogous to Eisenhower in 1952 or 1956. Texas or the five states that Clinton won  twice but Obama got clobbered in in 2008 make the difference between about 410 and 450 electoral votes. That's not to say that that will happen unless Mitt Romney utterly collapses as a campaigner.

Face it: take only the states that both Al Gore and John Kerry won in 2000 and 2004 and President Obama has 242 electoral votes right there. Nothing indicates that any one of those states or DC is in play.  Add New Hampshire and New Mexico as two other likely Obama blowouts and the President needs only 18 more electoral votes for a tie in electoral votes and 19 for an outright win. There's not much wiggle room if you consider the following states the swing states of 2012: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. These states are diverse enough that there is no particular appeal that can work in enough of them that won't also start making some of the now-solid Obama states vulnerable. In short that means that Mitt Romney would have to be a stronger candidate nationwide.

If you want to reduce winning to random chance, then President Obama has 19 ways to win:

1     FL
2    OH   +    NC
3    OH      +    VA
4    OH     +    MO
5    OH      +    CO
6    OH      +    IA
7    OH      +    NV
8    NC      +    VA
9    NC      +    MO
10    NC   +    CO   
11    NC   +    IA
12    NC    +   NV
13    VA      +   MO
14    VA      +   CO
15    VA    +   IA
16    VA    +    NV
17    MO   +    CO
18    MO   +    NV   +  IA   
19    CO   +    NV   +  IA


Basically, Florida alone; one of either North Carolina, Ohio, or Virginia, and anything else or the more likely combination of Colorado, Iowa, and Nevada. That's before I even discuss states like Arizona, Georgia, and Indiana in which Obama victories imply the winning of a raft of other states.

There are seven ways in which Romney can win, but those absolutely require him to win Florida and Ohio. Those have so many required contingencies that the chances of any one of them is slight.

 
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #12 on: June 07, 2012, 01:55:16 PM »

1.  Of all religious groups in America, Evangelicals are the least bigoted.

2.  Between the Potomac and Rio Grande rivers are 180 electoral votes.  Obama won't get a single one no matter who Romney picks for Veep.

3.  My only prediction on Romney's Veep is that he'll pick someone with D.C. experience.  At least, that would be the "safe" play.


1. I would say that's not true to an extent.  

2. There's a high possibility he'll get VA no matter what.

3. Perhaps a Southern Senator would do here, but I think he needs a Southern running mate, the Evangelical Bible Belt votes are what he has a hard time trying to get, and yet needs.

Emmm no......Virginia is far from guaranteed for Obama. Esp. after the recent job's report and other related news.


I think most Americans are now under the assumption that we are in a L shaped recession.
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Torie
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« Reply #13 on: June 07, 2012, 02:21:47 PM »

Good God no. Just no. Ideally he needs a Midwesterner with appeal to the rust belt (which spills over into PA). But Rubio does have the spark. Gosh he's articulate, and has superb vocal intonation skills. I have yet to see him stumble. He has the gift.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #14 on: June 07, 2012, 02:27:11 PM »

Good God no. Just no. Ideally he needs a Midwesterner with appeal to the rust belt (which spills over into PA). But Rubio does have the spark. Gosh he's articulate, and has superb vocal intonation skills. I have yet to see him stumble. He has the gift.

Yeah I can see Rubio, but I think the only disadvantage with Rubio is DC experience, he's only been a U.S. Senator for almost 1.5 years. However that might help the Hispanic vote.
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Torie
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« Reply #15 on: June 07, 2012, 02:31:42 PM »

Good God no. Just no. Ideally he needs a Midwesterner with appeal to the rust belt (which spills over into PA). But Rubio does have the spark. Gosh he's articulate, and has superb vocal intonation skills. I have yet to see him stumble. He has the gift.

Yeah I can see Rubio, but I think the only disadvantage with Rubio is DC experience, he's only been a U.S. Senator for almost 1.5 years. However that might help the Hispanic vote.

I was focusing on his sheer political talent. In the end, that is more important than geography, or even ethnicity I suspect.
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WhyteRain
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« Reply #16 on: June 07, 2012, 02:42:40 PM »

Good God no. Just no. Ideally he needs a Midwesterner with appeal to the rust belt (which spills over into PA). But Rubio does have the spark. Gosh he's articulate, and has superb vocal intonation skills. I have yet to see him stumble. He has the gift.

Yeah I can see Rubio, but I think the only disadvantage with Rubio is DC experience, he's only been a U.S. Senator for almost 1.5 years. However that might help the Hispanic vote.

Are you really from Texas?
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WhyteRain
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« Reply #17 on: June 07, 2012, 02:58:42 PM »

Gosh a lot of people have fantasies that Obama can win some Southern state(s).  I guess those blowout primary wins in West Va. and Arkansas have them excited.  (Seriously, do any of them even read the elections results?)

Anyway, I won't be voting for Romney.  If I wanted a Wall Street bankers' puppet, I'd vote for Obama to avoid that thin chance of a successful anti-WS rebellion in the GOP that doesn't exist in the Democratic Party.  (Notice that Wall Street beat Main Street in the GOP primaries this year -- which brought relief to most Democrats.  Democrats are taught by their bosses to hate and fear the Republicans who send their kids to public school, who mow their own lawns, and who complain about debt and taxes.  To Democrats, the good Republicans are those who have bank accounts in the Caymans, whose closest contact with minorities is when they keep a sharp eye on the maid while she polishes the silver, and who would never dream of stopping the international bankers from getting an interest payment.)

But if you put a gun to my head and made me give my best advice to Romney, I'd say forget the South.  Pick a Veep from the West -- either Colorado or California.  Or anywhere on the Pacific Coast except Alaska.
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Panhandle Progressive
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« Reply #18 on: June 07, 2012, 04:50:10 PM »

Mitt probably needs a miracle to keep everyone in the Republican Party happy this summer.
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Donerail
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« Reply #19 on: June 07, 2012, 05:51:34 PM »

Gosh a lot of people have fantasies that Obama can win some Southern state(s).  I guess those blowout primary wins in West Va. and Arkansas have them excited.  (Seriously, do any of them even read the elections results?)

Anyway, I won't be voting for Romney.  If I wanted a Wall Street bankers' puppet, I'd vote for Obama to avoid that thin chance of a successful anti-WS rebellion in the GOP that doesn't exist in the Democratic Party.  (Notice that Wall Street beat Main Street in the GOP primaries this year -- which brought relief to most Democrats.  Democrats are taught by their bosses to hate and fear the Republicans who send their kids to public school, who mow their own lawns, and who complain about debt and taxes.  To Democrats, the good Republicans are those who have bank accounts in the Caymans, whose closest contact with minorities is when they keep a sharp eye on the maid while she polishes the silver, and who would never dream of stopping the international bankers from getting an interest payment.)

But if you put a gun to my head and made me give my best advice to Romney, I'd say forget the South.  Pick a Veep from the West -- either Colorado or California.  Or anywhere on the Pacific Coast except Alaska.

We're looking at states Obama can win because he's won them, not those that are solid Republican (like WV or AR). As to the rest of it...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #20 on: June 07, 2012, 08:31:17 PM »

Gosh a lot of people have fantasies that Obama can win some Southern state(s).  I guess those blowout primary wins in West Va. and Arkansas have them excited.  (Seriously, do any of them even read the elections results?)

Aside from Florida, Georgia (maybe), North Carolina, and Virginia -- no.  I said that if Mitt Romney had to do anything to solidify support in the South he was losing, and that if he lost any former Confederate State, then he was going to lose no matter what VP nominee he chose. The only reason for Mitt Romney to choose a Southern candidate as VP is that that nominee is for that person's political savvy and ideological concurrence.

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The Tea Party types are really, really bad.

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The North can support a reactionary from its own turf, but not from the South. It can vote for a Southern liberal, populist, or moderate.  Going with a Southern reactionary is a sure way to alienate Northerners in states on the borderline.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #21 on: June 07, 2012, 08:44:14 PM »

I'm thinking more Portman from the midwest.

Smart, DC experience, acceptable to the south, could ultimately help in the rustbelt.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #22 on: June 07, 2012, 11:59:26 PM »

Good God no. Just no. Ideally he needs a Midwesterner with appeal to the rust belt (which spills over into PA). But Rubio does have the spark. Gosh he's articulate, and has superb vocal intonation skills. I have yet to see him stumble. He has the gift.

Yeah I can see Rubio, but I think the only disadvantage with Rubio is DC experience, he's only been a U.S. Senator for almost 1.5 years. However that might help the Hispanic vote.

Are you really from Texas?


Yes. Why?
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #23 on: June 08, 2012, 12:06:28 AM »

Yes, he should. Christine O'Donnell would be perfect! And perky to boot. Cheesy
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Torie
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« Reply #24 on: June 08, 2012, 09:57:34 AM »

How about Ron Paul?  That would pick up for Mittens a few votes right here in Atlasia.
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