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Author Topic: PurplePoll: Obama ahead in VA and CO; Romney ahead in OH and FL  (Read 914 times)
Ben Romney
Hillary2012
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« on: June 07, 2012, 02:17:07 pm »
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Romney improves across Purple States and
leads in Ohio and Florida; Obama still leads
in Purple America, Virginia and Colorado.

National: Obama:47/49
Obama/Romney: 48/46

CO: Obama: 48/48
Obama/Romney: 48/46

VA: Obama: 45/51
Obama/Romney: 49/46

OH: Obama: 43/52
Obama/Romney: 45/48

FL: Obama: 45/50
Obama/Romney: 45/49

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/6.2012-Purple-Poll.pdf
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #1 on: June 07, 2012, 02:30:46 pm »
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Colorado: http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=820120605195

Virginia: http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5120120605195

Ohio: http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3920120605195

Florida: http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1220120605195
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2 on: June 07, 2012, 02:33:03 pm »
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Here's a question: Do the national numbers come from all 12 states, or just these 4? Because if it comes from these 4, the numbers don't add up for Obama leading by 2, since Romney leads by 3 and 4 in the two biggest states.

BTW, Obama's lead has dropped overall from 4 to 2 since April. May wasn't a good month for the President, between polling and fundraising.
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« Reply #3 on: June 07, 2012, 02:46:41 pm »
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They polled 600 per state. It's not proportional.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #4 on: June 07, 2012, 02:50:28 pm »
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They polled 600 per state. It's not proportional.
They could have only selected a certain percentage of those 600 to make it proportional.
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« Reply #5 on: June 07, 2012, 02:50:50 pm »
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What's their track record like, because I've never heard of them before?
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #6 on: June 07, 2012, 02:52:52 pm »
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What's their track record like, because I've never heard of them before?
Their numbers seem fairly reasonable.

April numbers: http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/AprilPurplePoll_v9.pdf
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« Reply #7 on: June 07, 2012, 02:54:25 pm »
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They polled 600 per state. It's not proportional.

Well, as noted if you poll 600 folks in Wyoming, and 600 folks in CA, and then say Romney is ahead in the two states combined,  what you have is GIGO.  It has to weighted to match the population weights, which means Wyoming's percentages would be 1/54 of the weighted average, and CA 53/54 of it. Tongue
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« Reply #8 on: June 07, 2012, 02:56:57 pm »
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What's their track record like, because I've never heard of them before?
Their numbers seem fairly reasonable.

April numbers: http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/AprilPurplePoll_v9.pdf

I agree the numbers don't seem outlandish  but I meant more in terms of previous elections, have they just started or have they been going for a while?
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #9 on: June 07, 2012, 02:58:50 pm »
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What's their track record like, because I've never heard of them before?
Their numbers seem fairly reasonable.

April numbers: http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/AprilPurplePoll_v9.pdf

I agree the numbers don't seem outlandish  but I meant more in terms of previous elections, have they just started or have they been going for a while?
If my memory serves correct, this firm just started for the 2012 election. So no results to base it on.
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« Reply #10 on: June 07, 2012, 03:01:59 pm »
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What's their track record like, because I've never heard of them before?
Their numbers seem fairly reasonable.

April numbers: http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/AprilPurplePoll_v9.pdf

I agree the numbers don't seem outlandish  but I meant more in terms of previous elections, have they just started or have they been going for a while?
If my memory serves correct, this firm just started for the 2012 election. So no results to base it on.

OK, thanks a lot Smiley
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #11 on: June 07, 2012, 03:06:45 pm »
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I expect Romney to be competitive in MN and NM but if I were running "Purple Poll" I'd take those states off the list.  They are swing-y states but they will not decide the election.  Repubs clearly do not need MN to win the presidency and NM is only 5 EVs, won't make or break it
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« Reply #12 on: June 07, 2012, 03:09:23 pm »
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I expect Romney to be competitive in MN and NM but if I were running "Purple Poll" I'd take those states off the list.  They are swing-y states but they will not decide the election. 

How would you define MN as swingy?

It has the longest streak of voting Democratic in the country and was only close when Ralph Nader siphoned votes from Al Gore's left.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #13 on: June 07, 2012, 03:09:50 pm »
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I expect Romney to be competitive in MN and NM but if I were running "Purple Poll" I'd take those states off the list.  They are swing-y states but they will not decide the election.  Repubs clearly do not need MN to win the presidency and NM is only 5 EVs, won't make or break it
Yes. To keep the geographic balance the same, I'd switch those two with Missouri and Arizona, just because those states will be closer. Also, Michigan should probably be added.

I expect Romney to be competitive in MN and NM but if I were running "Purple Poll" I'd take those states off the list.  They are swing-y states but they will not decide the election.

How would you define MN as swingy?

It has the longest streak of voting Democratic in the country and was only close when Ralph Nader siphoned votes from Al Gore's left.
Minnesota was also considered a deadheat in 2004, and also was closer than Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in 2008. Wink That being said, I don't think it'll be too closeit won't be too close this time around.
« Last Edit: June 07, 2012, 03:11:44 pm by Tmthforu94 »Logged

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« Reply #14 on: June 07, 2012, 03:16:43 pm »
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I expect Romney to be competitive in MN and NM but if I were running "Purple Poll" I'd take those states off the list.  They are swing-y states but they will not decide the election.

How would you define MN as swingy?

It has the longest streak of voting Democratic in the country and was only close when Ralph Nader siphoned votes from Al Gore's left.
Minnesota was also considered a deadheat in 2004, and also was closer than Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in 2008. Wink That being said, I don't think it'll be too closeit won't be too close this time around.

IIRC Minnesota was only close (relatively speaking) because Obama was basically non existent in the Minneapolis St Paul media market especially compared to McCain.
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #15 on: June 07, 2012, 03:40:13 pm »
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I expect Romney to be competitive in MN and NM but if I were running "Purple Poll" I'd take those states off the list.  They are swing-y states but they will not decide the election. 

How would you define MN as swingy?

It has the longest streak of voting Democratic in the country and was only close when Ralph Nader siphoned votes from Al Gore's left.

Before Dayton squeaked a 8,000 vote victory in 2010, Dems hadn't won a governor's race there since 1986, MN elected Coleman senator twice though through cheating it went to Franken in 2008, and they just elected a Republican legislator.  Bush was VERY competitive in MN in 04 and 08, and Repubs hold 4/8 house seats
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« Reply #16 on: June 07, 2012, 03:56:49 pm »
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Minnesota is a Humphrey state with a libertarian streak which voted for Reform party candidate Jesse Ventura and elected non movement conservatives like Coleman and Pawlenty.
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« Reply #17 on: June 07, 2012, 04:11:55 pm »
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Governors' races don't count. We went 12 years without a Dem governor in Massachusetts.

Apples to apples. If MN is "swing-y", then so is, I don't know, Arizona. Except Arizona has voted for a D once within the last 30 years.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #18 on: June 07, 2012, 05:57:22 pm »
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The streak argument is a bit weak, that's just because it happened to be Mondale's home state in 1976-1984.

Clearly, the upper Midwest was more Democratic in general back in the day than it is now. Minnesota seems like a generally competitive state during the last decade, which is really what counts.
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« Reply #19 on: June 07, 2012, 06:03:46 pm »
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The streak argument is a bit weak, that's just because it happened to be Mondale's home state in 1976-1984.

Clearly, the upper Midwest was more Democratic in general back in the day than it is now. Minnesota seems like a generally competitive state during the last decade, which is really what counts.

IIRC Ed Rollins also claimed that it looked like Reagan would've won Minnesota too if he'd asked for a recount, but they didn't want to rub it in.  Standard Ed Rollins caveat, of course.
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« Reply #20 on: June 07, 2012, 06:09:57 pm »
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Romney is long dead in Minnesota. Move on.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #21 on: June 07, 2012, 06:27:16 pm »
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This is great news for Romney. He's locked in Florida and NC. He's moving onto phase two--Ohio and Virginia. Colorado won't be far around the corner.
« Last Edit: June 07, 2012, 07:20:36 pm by HagridOfTheDeep »Logged

timothyinMD
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« Reply #22 on: June 07, 2012, 06:29:54 pm »
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This is great news for Romney. He's locked in Florida and NC. He's moving on to phase two--Ohion and Virginia. Colorado won't be far around the corner.

Agreed.  Romney's got Indiana back.  NC and FL appear to be good bets for Romney.. on to Virginia, Colorado and Ohio
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vern1988
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« Reply #23 on: June 08, 2012, 08:52:14 pm »
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North Carolina isn't a lock for Romney.
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« Reply #24 on: June 08, 2012, 09:23:05 pm »
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This is great news for Romney. He's locked in Florida and NC. He's moving onto phase two--Ohio and Virginia. Colorado won't be far around the corner.

Is this post a joke?
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