PurplePoll: Obama ahead in VA and CO; Romney ahead in OH and FL

[tmthforu94]

Colorado: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=820120605195

Virginia: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5120120605195

Ohio: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3920120605195

Florida: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1220120605195

[tmthforu94]

Here's a question: Do the national numbers come from all 12 states, or just these 4? Because if it comes from these 4, the numbers don't add up for Obama leading by 2, since Romney leads by 3 and 4 in the two biggest states.

BTW, Obama's lead has dropped overall from 4 to 2 since April. May wasn't a good month for the President, between polling and fundraising.

[tmthforu94]

They polled 600 per state. It's not proportional.

They could have only selected a certain percentage of those 600 to make it proportional.

[tmthforu94]

What's their track record like, because I've never heard of them before?

Their numbers seem fairly reasonable.

April numbers: http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/AprilPurplePoll_v9.pdf

[tmthforu94]

What's their track record like, because I've never heard of them before?

Their numbers seem fairly reasonable.

April numbers: http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/AprilPurplePoll_v9.pdf

I agree the numbers don't seem outlandish  but I meant more in terms of previous elections, have they just started or have they been going for a while?

If my memory serves correct, this firm just started for the 2012 election. So no results to base it on.

[tmthforu94]

I expect Romney to be competitive in MN and NM but if I were running "Purple Poll" I'd take those states off the list.  They are swing-y states but they will not decide the election.  Repubs clearly do not need MN to win the presidency and NM is only 5 EVs, won't make or break it

Yes. To keep the geographic balance the same, I'd switch those two with Missouri and Arizona, just because those states will be closer. Also, Michigan should probably be added.

I expect Romney to be competitive in MN and NM but if I were running "Purple Poll" I'd take those states off the list.  They are swing-y states but they will not decide the election.

How would you define MN as swingy?

It has the longest streak of voting Democratic in the country and was only close when Ralph Nader siphoned votes from Al Gore's left.

Minnesota was also considered a deadheat in 2004, and also was closer than Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in 2008. That being said, I don't think it'll be too closeit won't be too close this time around.