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Author Topic: FL-PPP: Nelson up by 13 points  (Read 938 times)
SJoyce
sjoycefla
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« on: June 07, 2012, 07:54:39 pm »
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Incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson leads Rep. Connie Mack IV (49-36) and former Senator George LeMieux (48-35) by 13 points for both. Nelson also has a 23% approval rating among Republicans and gets 13-17% of their vote in an election. He also leads Mack and LeMieux among independents by 20-24 points.

The survey was of 642 registered FL voters and was conducted May 31-June 3. MoE is 3.9%.

Poll is here.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1 on: June 07, 2012, 07:57:36 pm »
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Mack has apparently never heard of the words "disciplined campaign." Though maybe once he secures the nomination Jeb will give him access to his fundraising Rolodex.
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7.35, 3.65

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« Reply #2 on: June 08, 2012, 09:14:39 am »
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You can say Nelson is gonna win this race.
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GPORTER
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« Reply #3 on: June 12, 2012, 09:34:33 pm »
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My dream scenario is for Obama and democrats to lead up until the last two weeks of the campaign. And during that last two weeks, there is a surge for republicans in the senate races. They pick up btwn five and seven seats, and Romney narrowly wins the presidency. That would be my dream scenario.
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #4 on: June 13, 2012, 11:08:15 am »
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Mack's going to win.  Unfortunately Florida has a late primary
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SJoyce
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« Reply #5 on: June 13, 2012, 06:09:23 pm »
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Mack's going to win.  Unfortunately Florida has a late primary

No.
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mondale84
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« Reply #6 on: June 13, 2012, 07:25:06 pm »
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Mack's going to win.  Unfortunately Florida has a late primary

And I'm leading John Barrasso in Republican internals.
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #7 on: June 14, 2012, 10:44:18 am »
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Mack's going to win.  Unfortunately Florida has a late primary

And I'm leading John Barrasso in Republican internals.

You're welcome to disagree, but Florida is not Wyoming

Nelson is a very weak incumbent, and Florida is very Republican friendly and Romney is going to win it
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SJoyce
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« Reply #8 on: June 14, 2012, 06:36:30 pm »
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Mack's going to win.  Unfortunately Florida has a late primary

And I'm leading John Barrasso in Republican internals.

You're welcome to disagree, but Florida is not Wyoming

Nelson is a very weak incumbent, and Florida is very Republican friendly and Romney is going to win it

See, there's 2 problems with your statement: categorizing Nelson as a "weak incumbent", which he is not, and calling Florida "very Republican friendly", which it is not, the gerrymandered State Legislature notwithstanding.
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #9 on: June 15, 2012, 06:00:47 pm »
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Mack's going to win.  Unfortunately Florida has a late primary

And I'm leading John Barrasso in Republican internals.

You're welcome to disagree, but Florida is not Wyoming

Nelson is a very weak incumbent, and Florida is very Republican friendly and Romney is going to win it

See, there's 2 problems with your statement: categorizing Nelson as a "weak incumbent", which he is not, and calling Florida "very Republican friendly", which it is not, the gerrymandered State Legislature notwithstanding.

Before this conspiculous PPP showing Nelson at 49%, Nelson had not polled above 47% in any poll listed on RCP in the last 6 months.  Topping out at 47%, when you were re-elected in a swing state with 61% last time is PATHETIC
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Miles
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« Reply #10 on: June 15, 2012, 06:10:12 pm »
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Mack's going to win.  Unfortunately Florida has a late primary

And I'm leading John Barrasso in Republican internals.

You're welcome to disagree, but Florida is not Wyoming

Nelson is a very weak incumbent, and Florida is very Republican friendly and Romney is going to win it

See, there's 2 problems with your statement: categorizing Nelson as a "weak incumbent", which he is not, and calling Florida "very Republican friendly", which it is not, the gerrymandered State Legislature notwithstanding.

Before this conspiculous PPP showing Nelson at 49%, Nelson had not polled above 47% in any poll listed on RCP in the last 6 months.  Topping out at 47%, when you were re-elected in a swing state with 61% last time is PATHETIC

Do you know how much Republicans contested Florida back in 2006!?
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morgieb
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« Reply #11 on: June 15, 2012, 08:21:58 pm »
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Mack's going to win.  Unfortunately Florida has a late primary

And I'm leading John Barrasso in Republican internals.

You're welcome to disagree, but Florida is not Wyoming

Nelson is a very weak incumbent, and Florida is very Republican friendly and Romney is going to win it

See, there's 2 problems with your statement: categorizing Nelson as a "weak incumbent", which he is not, and calling Florida "very Republican friendly", which it is not, the gerrymandered State Legislature notwithstanding.

Before this conspiculous PPP showing Nelson at 49%, Nelson had not polled above 47% in any poll listed on RCP in the last 6 months.  Topping out at 47%, when you were re-elected in a swing state with 61% last time is PATHETIC
88)

Don't look at how much Nelson's getting, look at the margin. In all recent polls Nelson is ahead. It's very unlikely they can come back from there.
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GPORTER
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« Reply #12 on: June 15, 2012, 09:15:21 pm »
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If the election were held today, I believe that Heller would win by five and Mack by two.
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SJoyce
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« Reply #13 on: June 15, 2012, 09:29:04 pm »
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Mack's going to win.  Unfortunately Florida has a late primary

And I'm leading John Barrasso in Republican internals.

You're welcome to disagree, but Florida is not Wyoming

Nelson is a very weak incumbent, and Florida is very Republican friendly and Romney is going to win it

See, there's 2 problems with your statement: categorizing Nelson as a "weak incumbent", which he is not, and calling Florida "very Republican friendly", which it is not, the gerrymandered State Legislature notwithstanding.

Before this conspiculous PPP showing Nelson at 49%, Nelson had not polled above 47% in any poll listed on RCP in the last 6 months.  Topping out at 47%, when you were re-elected in a swing state with 61% last time is PATHETIC

Yes, but see, last time he was running against Katherine Harris. Do you know who Katherine Harris is? Since you evidently don't, I shall tell you. Katherine Harris is Florida's own Michele Bachmann, except with crap fundraising ability; her candidacy was notable for being specifically not-endorsed by Jeb Bush and Karl Rove, and also for Republicans attempting to find somebody (Allan Bense and Joe Scarborough, notably). Nelson was the luckiest man in Washington for drawing Harris as his opponent. She went through 4 campaign managers, wasn't supported by the FL GOP, and there was the fundraising incident (illegal campaign contributions) and the Coral Ridge Presbyterian Church incident where she called for Christians to vote along religious lines, removing the separation of church and state and converting all the Jews. She was endorsed by a grand total of 1 (one) newspaper, the 4-day-a-week Polk County Democrat, which is from Bartow. In sum, anyone who supported Katharine Harris was off their rocker; a whole lot of Republicans crossed over, and the vast majority of Independents supported Nelson. 61% was actually rather low.
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mondale84
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« Reply #14 on: June 15, 2012, 09:51:10 pm »
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If the election were held today, I believe that Heller would win by five and Mack by two.

Ok, keep believing that...
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #15 on: June 16, 2012, 02:47:12 pm »
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Yup, I know who Katherine Harris is.  Great lady.

To the contrary, a long time incumbent being at only 45.. 46% is pitiful.  Undecideds overwhelmingly break for the challenger and 2012 is going to be a pro-Republican vote.  Mack is a good fit for FL and come the end of the day, he's prob gonna win
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mondale84
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« Reply #16 on: June 16, 2012, 02:52:47 pm »
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Yup, I know who Katherine Harris is.  Great lady.

You're on something powerful and you should stop taking it.
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SJoyce
sjoycefla
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« Reply #17 on: June 16, 2012, 02:55:56 pm »
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Yup, I know who Katherine Harris is.  Crazy lady.

To the contrary, a two-term incumbent being at about 50% is greatIndependents and Republican in Florida will go for Nelson in large numbers, and while 2012 may have a slight swing towards the Republicans, Nelson will survive.Nelson is a great fit for FL and come the end of the day, he's probably gonna win.

Fixed. A moderate native Floridian is a great fit for Florida, a much better fit than our very own Charlie Sheen, Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV.
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