Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 01, 2014, 12:31:23 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2012 Elections (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | |-+  did obama under-perform in ia and mn in 08?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Poll
Question: ....
yes   -9 (47.4%)
no   -10 (52.6%)
Show Pie Chart
Total Voters: 19

Author Topic: did obama under-perform in ia and mn in 08?  (Read 855 times)
WalterMitty
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21043


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

View Profile
« on: June 08, 2012, 08:28:28 am »
Ignore

the answer is obviously yes.  i remember some of the more political astute people on the atlas predicting an obama victory near 20 points in both states...and some of the polls suggested that.

more importantly, especially in regards to ia, will he underperform this year?
Logged


I just slept for 11 hours, so I should need a nap today
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58778
India


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: June 08, 2012, 09:02:00 am »
Ignore

Minnesota is notoriously unelastic, but you're right that Obama underperformed relative to our expectations. Not sure wth you're thinking about Iowa.
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Gravis Marketing
brittain33
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12966


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: June 08, 2012, 09:52:39 am »
Ignore

Compared to what? He seems to have overperformed in MI, WI, and IL.
Logged
WalterMitty
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21043


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

View Profile
« Reply #3 on: June 08, 2012, 09:53:57 am »
Ignore

Compared to what? He seems to have overperformed in MI, WI, and IL.

compared to pre election polls and/or expectations.
Logged


I just slept for 11 hours, so I should need a nap today
Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27430
United States


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: June 08, 2012, 09:55:21 am »
Ignore

Lewis I think has a point about MN inelasticity. Iowa is kind of a weird state. I know it so well, yet don't know it.
Logged

Snowstalker
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17687
Burkina Faso


Political Matrix
E: -8.45, S: -4.26

View Profile
« Reply #5 on: June 08, 2012, 10:12:14 am »
Ignore

Yes in Iowa, no in New Mexico.
Logged

Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6686
Spain


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: June 08, 2012, 05:06:14 pm »
Ignore

Yes, definitely, Minnesota is very unelastic, maybe because it's too polarized, idk. And in IA, he finnally won by 9 points didn't him? It was probably for the same reasons of MN.
Logged

My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Mr. Morden
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19820
United States


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: June 08, 2012, 06:51:03 pm »

IIRC, didn't the public polls have Obama way way ahead in Iowa, and everyone was wondering why McCain was wasting any time campaigning there?  But it actually ended up being the tipping point state.  Maybe McCain's internal polls were picking up something that the public polls weren't.
Logged

HOG & Blondie: A Tale of Atlas Future

What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
Nichlemn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1458


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: June 09, 2012, 12:29:56 am »
Ignore

Minnesota is notoriously unelastic, but you're right that Obama underperformed relative to our expectations. Not sure wth you're thinking about Iowa.

Swing Voters and Elastic States

Where elasticity is defined as the amount the state would swing with a 1% uniform swing:

Quote
Minnesota      1.01
Logged

Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 39175
United States


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: June 09, 2012, 01:06:02 am »
Ignore

Yeah, I think it was more that he wildly over performed in Wisconsin, Indiana, etc.
Logged

LiberalJunkie
LiberalJunkie99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 675
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: June 09, 2012, 02:40:00 am »
Ignore

Yes in Iowa, It showed him up there by 13 points I think I even saw one as high as 17. In Minnesota maybe but the Republicans did have their convention there so that might of factored In somehow.
Logged
Linus Van Pelt
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1861


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: June 09, 2012, 11:34:51 am »
Ignore

Minnesota is notoriously unelastic, but you're right that Obama underperformed relative to our expectations. Not sure wth you're thinking about Iowa.

Swing Voters and Elastic States

Where elasticity is defined as the amount the state would swing with a 1% uniform swing:

Quote
Minnesota      1.01

That is a poor measure of elasticity. He doesn't look at actual voting patterns at all; it just measures the percentage of respondents in the 2008 exit poll who lack demographic characteristics that are  strong predictors of voting behavior. However, whether a given demographic group is elastic is independent of whether membership in the group is a strong predictor of voting behavior. Say group A consists of 50% loyal Dems and 50% loyal Reps, whereas group B consists of 75% loyal Dems, 20% swing voters and 5% loyal Reps. Group B is more elastic despite membership in group B being a stronger predictor of voting behavior.

A better measure can be found using the actual voting results on this website. In 8 of the 10 past elections, Minnesota has trended, in Leip's sense, towards the party whose percentage of the two-party vote declines.
« Last Edit: June 09, 2012, 11:42:03 am by The Great Pumpkin »Logged

Quote
Resident Al Salsano griped that the wine bar has a limited food menu and attracts people who use it as a place for dates after meeting online.

"I have seen people say, ‘I met you on the Internet,’ and you’re putting that on the sidewalk?" he said incredulously. "I don’t want children walking near 'Internet people' meeting."
Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6331
United States


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: June 09, 2012, 12:45:32 pm »
Ignore

Minnesota was, IIRC, the only state in the entire country where McCain outspent Obama. McCain also kept spending and campaigning in Iowa long after it became clear he couldn't win the state.
Logged

black and white band photos
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72587
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: June 09, 2012, 12:51:31 pm »
Ignore

Minnesota was, IIRC, the only state in the entire country where McCain outspent Obama. McCain also kept spending and campaigning in Iowa long after it became clear he couldn't win the state.

That is correct. It's worth looking at the trend map:



This is pretty close to a map of counties in non-Minnesota media markets. That large chunk of red in the northwest is basically the Fargo/Moorhead media market. Those red counties in the southwest corner are Sioux Falls, and the two in the southeast are La Crosse, WI. Almost every county in a non-Minnesota media market trended toward Obama.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
Gravis Marketing
brittain33
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12966


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: June 09, 2012, 01:18:33 pm »
Ignore

Minnesota was, IIRC, the only state in the entire country where McCain outspent Obama. McCain also kept spending and campaigning in Iowa long after it became clear he couldn't win the state.

That is correct. It's worth looking at the trend map:



This is pretty close to a map of counties in non-Minnesota media markets. That large chunk of red in the northwest is basically the Fargo/Moorhead media market. Those red counties in the southwest corner are Sioux Falls, and the two in the southeast are La Crosse, WI. Almost every county in a non-Minnesota media market trended toward Obama.

And yet, having a money advantage is supposed to be meaningless for elections and doesn't affect the outcome...
Logged
Nichlemn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1458


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: June 09, 2012, 06:24:40 pm »
Ignore

Quote
A better measure can be found using the actual voting results on this website. In 8 of the 10 past elections, Minnesota has trended, in Leip's sense, towards the party whose percentage of the two-party vote declines.

That's relevant, but a demographic argument gives weight to the hypothesis that it's not just noise or the idiosyncrasies of the specific races.
Logged

old timey villain
cope1989
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1734


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: June 09, 2012, 07:51:35 pm »
Ignore

PPP just showed Obama at 54 and Romney at 39. Maybe Obama actually did underperform there in 2008 and 2012 will be a return to the norm.
Logged

Can't we all just get along?
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines