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| |-+  2012 Elections (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | |-+  did obama under-perform in ia and mn in 08?
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Author Topic: did obama under-perform in ia and mn in 08?  (Read 833 times)
WalterMitty
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« on: June 08, 2012, 08:28:28 am »
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the answer is obviously yes.  i remember some of the more political astute people on the atlas predicting an obama victory near 20 points in both states...and some of the polls suggested that.

more importantly, especially in regards to ia, will he underperform this year?
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #1 on: June 08, 2012, 09:02:00 am »
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Minnesota is notoriously unelastic, but you're right that Obama underperformed relative to our expectations. Not sure wth you're thinking about Iowa.
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« Reply #2 on: June 08, 2012, 09:52:39 am »
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Compared to what? He seems to have overperformed in MI, WI, and IL.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #3 on: June 08, 2012, 09:53:57 am »
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Compared to what? He seems to have overperformed in MI, WI, and IL.

compared to pre election polls and/or expectations.
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« Reply #4 on: June 08, 2012, 09:55:21 am »
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Lewis I think has a point about MN inelasticity. Iowa is kind of a weird state. I know it so well, yet don't know it.
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A.G. Snowstalker
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« Reply #5 on: June 08, 2012, 10:12:14 am »
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Yes in Iowa, no in New Mexico.
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« Reply #6 on: June 08, 2012, 05:06:14 pm »
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Yes, definitely, Minnesota is very unelastic, maybe because it's too polarized, idk. And in IA, he finnally won by 9 points didn't him? It was probably for the same reasons of MN.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7 on: June 08, 2012, 06:51:03 pm »

IIRC, didn't the public polls have Obama way way ahead in Iowa, and everyone was wondering why McCain was wasting any time campaigning there?  But it actually ended up being the tipping point state.  Maybe McCain's internal polls were picking up something that the public polls weren't.
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« Reply #8 on: June 09, 2012, 12:29:56 am »
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Minnesota is notoriously unelastic, but you're right that Obama underperformed relative to our expectations. Not sure wth you're thinking about Iowa.

Swing Voters and Elastic States

Where elasticity is defined as the amount the state would swing with a 1% uniform swing:

Quote
Minnesota      1.01
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« Reply #9 on: June 09, 2012, 01:06:02 am »
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Yeah, I think it was more that he wildly over performed in Wisconsin, Indiana, etc.
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« Reply #10 on: June 09, 2012, 02:40:00 am »
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Yes in Iowa, It showed him up there by 13 points I think I even saw one as high as 17. In Minnesota maybe but the Republicans did have their convention there so that might of factored In somehow.
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« Reply #11 on: June 09, 2012, 11:34:51 am »
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Minnesota is notoriously unelastic, but you're right that Obama underperformed relative to our expectations. Not sure wth you're thinking about Iowa.

Swing Voters and Elastic States

Where elasticity is defined as the amount the state would swing with a 1% uniform swing:

Quote
Minnesota      1.01

That is a poor measure of elasticity. He doesn't look at actual voting patterns at all; it just measures the percentage of respondents in the 2008 exit poll who lack demographic characteristics that are  strong predictors of voting behavior. However, whether a given demographic group is elastic is independent of whether membership in the group is a strong predictor of voting behavior. Say group A consists of 50% loyal Dems and 50% loyal Reps, whereas group B consists of 75% loyal Dems, 20% swing voters and 5% loyal Reps. Group B is more elastic despite membership in group B being a stronger predictor of voting behavior.

A better measure can be found using the actual voting results on this website. In 8 of the 10 past elections, Minnesota has trended, in Leip's sense, towards the party whose percentage of the two-party vote declines.
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« Reply #12 on: June 09, 2012, 12:45:32 pm »
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Minnesota was, IIRC, the only state in the entire country where McCain outspent Obama. McCain also kept spending and campaigning in Iowa long after it became clear he couldn't win the state.
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« Reply #13 on: June 09, 2012, 12:51:31 pm »
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Minnesota was, IIRC, the only state in the entire country where McCain outspent Obama. McCain also kept spending and campaigning in Iowa long after it became clear he couldn't win the state.

That is correct. It's worth looking at the trend map:



This is pretty close to a map of counties in non-Minnesota media markets. That large chunk of red in the northwest is basically the Fargo/Moorhead media market. Those red counties in the southwest corner are Sioux Falls, and the two in the southeast are La Crosse, WI. Almost every county in a non-Minnesota media market trended toward Obama.
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brittain33
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« Reply #14 on: June 09, 2012, 01:18:33 pm »
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Minnesota was, IIRC, the only state in the entire country where McCain outspent Obama. McCain also kept spending and campaigning in Iowa long after it became clear he couldn't win the state.

That is correct. It's worth looking at the trend map:



This is pretty close to a map of counties in non-Minnesota media markets. That large chunk of red in the northwest is basically the Fargo/Moorhead media market. Those red counties in the southwest corner are Sioux Falls, and the two in the southeast are La Crosse, WI. Almost every county in a non-Minnesota media market trended toward Obama.

And yet, having a money advantage is supposed to be meaningless for elections and doesn't affect the outcome...
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #15 on: June 09, 2012, 06:24:40 pm »
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Quote
A better measure can be found using the actual voting results on this website. In 8 of the 10 past elections, Minnesota has trended, in Leip's sense, towards the party whose percentage of the two-party vote declines.

That's relevant, but a demographic argument gives weight to the hypothesis that it's not just noise or the idiosyncrasies of the specific races.
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« Reply #16 on: June 09, 2012, 07:51:35 pm »
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PPP just showed Obama at 54 and Romney at 39. Maybe Obama actually did underperform there in 2008 and 2012 will be a return to the norm.
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