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Author Topic: The "guess how this hypothetical place would vote" thread  (Read 2033 times)
They call me PR
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« on: June 08, 2012, 12:28:33 pm »
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In this thread, describe a hypothetical place in the US using demographic data, and have other posters guess how it would vote.

Type: Suburban
Region: Midwest
Population: 105,000
Race: White (75%), Latino (11%), Black (10%), Asian (2%), Other (2%)
Median Household Income: $63,441
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 47%
Religion: Catholic (56%), Mainline Protestant (23%), Evangelical Protestant (14%), Other (7%)
Percentage of married couple households: 72%
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #1 on: June 08, 2012, 12:34:01 pm »
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In this thread, describe a hypothetical place in the US using demographic data, and have other posters guess how it would vote.

Type: Suburban
Region: Midwest
Population: 105,000
Race: White (75%), Latino (11%), Black (10%), Asian (2%), Other (2%)
Median Household Income: $63,441
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 47%
Religion: Catholic (56%), Mainline Protestant (23%), Evangelical Protestant (14%), Other (7%)
Percentage of married couple households: 72%


an area that comes to mind is an area like MN 3 that is pretty much marginal turf politically (although more favorable to republicans downballot)
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« Reply #2 on: June 08, 2012, 12:45:15 pm »
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It depends heavily on the history of the metropolitan area it's a suburb of. If it's an ancestrally German metro area like Cincinnati or Milwaukee, probably Republican. If it's more Eastern European or Irish like Cleveland or Chicago, more swingy or possibly Democratic. The income level looks a bit too high to me for it to be really Democratic. Then again, the religious affiliation level looks really low to be Republican unless there is some Evangelical component that is religious but doesn't show up in affiliation stats.
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They call me PR
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« Reply #3 on: June 11, 2012, 02:27:55 pm »
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It depends heavily on the history of the metropolitan area it's a suburb of. If it's an ancestrally German metro area like Cincinnati or Milwaukee, probably Republican. If it's more Eastern European or Irish like Cleveland or Chicago, more swingy or possibly Democratic. The income level looks a bit too high to me for it to be really Democratic. Then again, the religious affiliation level looks really low to be Republican unless there is some Evangelical component that is religious but doesn't show up in affiliation stats.

Interesting points. And yeah, I guess I did make the religious affiliation too low. Tongue
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« Reply #4 on: June 11, 2012, 02:40:14 pm »
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Type: Rural
Region: South
Population: 23,000
Race: White (61%), Black (27%), Latino (5%), Asian (4%), Other (3%)
Median Household Income: $79,756
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 80%
Religion: Evangelical Protestant (60%), Catholic (17%), Mainline Protestant (15%), Jewish (2%) Other (6%)
Percentage of married couple households: 58%
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« Reply #5 on: June 11, 2012, 02:48:45 pm »
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Type: Rural
Region: South
Population: 23,000
Race: White (61%), Black (27%), Latino (5%), Asian (4%), Other (3%)
Median Household Income: $79,756
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 80%
Religion: Evangelical Protestant (60%), Catholic (17%), Mainline Protestant (15%), Jewish (2%) Other (6%)
Percentage of married couple households: 58%

About 65% R bearing in mind these are rich southern whites.
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They call me PR
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« Reply #6 on: June 11, 2012, 03:21:54 pm »
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Type: Rural
Region: South
Population: 23,000
Race: White (61%), Black (27%), Latino (5%), Asian (4%), Other (3%)
Median Household Income: $79,756
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 80%
Religion: Evangelical Protestant (60%), Catholic (17%), Mainline Protestant (15%), Jewish (2%) Other (6%)
Percentage of married couple households: 58%

About 65% R bearing in mind these are rich southern whites.

It's rural rich Southern white, so more like 70-75% R. Tongue
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« Reply #7 on: June 11, 2012, 03:38:44 pm »
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Places like Ben's example simply don't exist.
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« Reply #8 on: June 11, 2012, 05:42:15 pm »
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Places like Ben's example simply don't exist.

It sounds like what a small rural county might look like nowadays if slavery were still legal.
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« Reply #9 on: June 12, 2012, 12:33:32 am »
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I don't think so. 17% Catholic is way too high for the rural south even if it is 5% Latino. 80% affiliated with a religious congregation also is probably higher than you can actually find anywhere for a primarily Evangelical area because many Evangelical churches do not have a well-defined concept of affiliation or have many unaffiliated congregants. To have 80% you would need to be in a Catholic or Lutheran area where affiliation itself is a large part of the cultural identity.
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« Reply #10 on: June 12, 2012, 12:47:20 am »
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Type: Urban (neighborhood)
Region: Northeast
Population: 37,000
Race: White (81%), Black (7%), Latino (5%), Asian (5%), Other (2%)
Median Household Income: $42,000
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 49%
Religion: Catholic (79%), Mainline Protestant (9%), Evangelical Protestant (1%), Other (11%)
Percentage of married couple households: 59%
« Last Edit: June 12, 2012, 12:49:42 am by 'cool,' the term 'cool,' could in some ways be deemed racial »Logged
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« Reply #11 on: June 12, 2012, 12:48:42 am »
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I don't think so. 17% Catholic is way too high for the rural south even if it is 5% Latino. 80% affiliated with a religious congregation also is probably higher than you can actually find anywhere for a primarily Evangelical area because many Evangelical churches do not have a well-defined concept of affiliation or have many unaffiliated congregants. To have 80% you would need to be in a Catholic or Lutheran area where affiliation itself is a large part of the cultural identity.

Surely there's somewhere in rural Louisiana that is at least 17% Catholic.
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« Reply #12 on: June 12, 2012, 12:50:30 am »
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I don't think so. 17% Catholic is way too high for the rural south even if it is 5% Latino. 80% affiliated with a religious congregation also is probably higher than you can actually find anywhere for a primarily Evangelical area because many Evangelical churches do not have a well-defined concept of affiliation or have many unaffiliated congregants. To have 80% you would need to be in a Catholic or Lutheran area where affiliation itself is a large part of the cultural identity.

It could be in Louisiana. 17% Catholic isn't too far fetched for somewhere like central Virginia or western Tennessee either. The 80% affiliated in general is a bit too far fetched though and even moreso is 2% Jewish. In the rural South even 0.2% Jewish would be hard to find.

But that's not really what I was objecting to. Rather it was the income level. You don't have rural places in the South that are over a quarter black that have a median income of almost $80k and that are also 5% Latino. That's only feasible if it's really some exurb (like all those ugly places in Georgia), but then it's going to be a hell of a lot whiter, or at least have a higher Latino than black population. 4% Asian and 3% "Other" too, so it's 12% non-white or black. Try finding a rural southern county with a non-white/black population in the double digits percentage (with the obvious exception of that Reservation area in North Carolina and any similar area.) Those racial numbers actually look like a south central Minneapolis neighborhood near the I-35W corridor, which obviously you won't find replicated in the rural south. The only way I could possibly see those numbers working is if there was some type of college in the town, and even that would drive the income numbers down, that being my main objection.
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« Reply #13 on: June 12, 2012, 12:51:41 am »
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Type: Urban (neighborhood)
Region: Northeast
Population: 37,000
Race: White (81%), Black (7%), Latino (5%), Asian (5%), Other (2%)
Median Household Income: $42,000
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 49%
Religion: Catholic (79%), Mainline Protestant (9%), Evangelical Protestant (1%), Other (11%)
Percentage of married couple households: 59%

This sounds like a working class neighborhood in Boston or somewhere like where Keystone Phil lives, so probably around 50-60% Obama. 1% evangelical for a 7% black neighborhood though isn't feasible and even ignoring that this place would have to be incredibly insular and isolated if that few people have converted, even San Francisco is well over 1% evangelical.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2012, 12:53:29 am by A Glass Can Only Spill What It Contains »Logged




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« Reply #14 on: June 12, 2012, 12:56:58 am »
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I was under the impression HBCs were considered "mainline."
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« Reply #15 on: June 12, 2012, 01:02:40 am »
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They can be quite diverse (we even have black Lutheran churches here believe it or not), but obviously not all would be considered mainline. Even if we assume that is the case in this area though you still have only 1% of people having converted to an evangelical church, which I doubt is even the case in the Castro District.
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« Reply #16 on: June 12, 2012, 01:05:40 am »
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For the OP, the only places I can see such a city being feasible are suburban Chicago or somewhere in Ohio, in the former it'd probably be well over 60% Obama but inflated obviously, for the latter probably around 50/50.
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« Reply #17 on: June 12, 2012, 11:34:24 am »
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This is a real place:

Type: Suburban
Region: Northeast
Population: 28,000
Race: White (80%), Asian (12%), Latino (5%), Black (1%), Other (2%)
Median Household Income: $140,000
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 66%
Religion (of those who attend services): Catholic (77%), Mainline Protestant (12%), Evangelical Protestant (2%), Other (9%, mainly Jewish)
Percentage of married couple households: 64%
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« Reply #18 on: June 12, 2012, 02:02:14 pm »
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Also a real place,

Type: Small town
Region: South
Population: 24,000
Race: White (65%), Black (29%), Asian (4%), Hispanic (1%) Other (1%)
Median Household Income: $22,590
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 48%
Religion (of those who attend services): Evangelical Protestant (44%), Mainline Protestant (32%), Catholic (18%), Muslim (2%), Jewish (1%), Others (3%)   
Percent of married couple households: 34%

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« Reply #19 on: June 12, 2012, 02:35:46 pm »
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Also a real place,

Type: Small town
Region: South
Population: 24,000
Race: White (65%), Black (29%), Asian (4%), Hispanic (1%) Other (1%)
Median Household Income: $22,590
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 48%
Religion (of those who attend services): Evangelical Protestant (44%), Mainline Protestant (32%), Catholic (18%), Muslim (2%), Jewish (1%), Others (3%)   
Percent of married couple households: 34%



Just eyeing the white percentage I'd say about 65% R

This is a real place:

Type: Suburban
Region: Northeast
Population: 28,000
Race: White (80%), Asian (12%), Latino (5%), Black (1%), Other (2%)
Median Household Income: $140,000
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 66%
Religion (of those who attend services): Catholic (77%), Mainline Protestant (12%), Evangelical Protestant (2%), Other (9%, mainly Jewish)
Percentage of married couple households: 64%

That could either be a super republican exurb or a formerly rockefeller republican now solidly  (60-70) democratic town, although I'd lean towards the democratic option
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #20 on: June 12, 2012, 02:57:55 pm »
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Also a real place,

Type: Small town
Region: South
Population: 24,000
Race: White (65%), Black (29%), Asian (4%), Hispanic (1%) Other (1%)
Median Household Income: $22,590
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 48%
Religion (of those who attend services): Evangelical Protestant (44%), Mainline Protestant (32%), Catholic (18%), Muslim (2%), Jewish (1%), Others (3%)   
Percent of married couple households: 34%



Just eyeing the white percentage I'd say about 65% Republican

You would be wrong.  This is Starkville, Mississippi--home of Mississippi State University--a college town that voted for Obama in 2008.
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« Reply #21 on: June 12, 2012, 03:08:15 pm »
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That could either be a super republican exurb or a formerly rockefeller republican now solidly  (60-70) democratic town, although I'd lean towards the democratic option

The second is correct; it's Wellesley, MA, ground zero for the latte liberal.  Until 1988, it only once voted for a Democrat (LBJ in 1964, and narrowly), and until recently it sent Republicans to the State House (including arch-conservative Proposition 2 1/2 author Roy Switzer in the 70s and 80s; he was defeated 60-40 trying to regain his old seat in 2010).  It has voted for Democrats every election since 1992, voted 65% for Obama in 2008, and was won by Martha Coakley by a razor-thin margin of 12 votes against Scott Brown.  (Good that you got it even though my religion statistics were wrong; they're for Norfolk County - I was thinking that the Jewish percentage looked very low).
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« Reply #22 on: June 12, 2012, 03:21:35 pm »
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Also a real place,

Type: Small town
Region: South
Population: 24,000
Race: White (65%), Black (29%), Asian (4%), Hispanic (1%) Other (1%)
Median Household Income: $22,590
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 48%
Religion (of those who attend services): Evangelical Protestant (44%), Mainline Protestant (32%), Catholic (18%), Muslim (2%), Jewish (1%), Others (3%)   
Percent of married couple households: 34%



Just eyeing the white percentage I'd say about 65% Republican

You would be wrong.  This is Starkville, Mississippi--home of Mississippi State University--a college town that voted for Obama in 2008.

Interesting, I thought something seemed different with the religious data, but in the end the south and small town won me (wrongly) over.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #23 on: June 12, 2012, 03:35:05 pm »
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Also a real place,

Type: Small town
Region: South
Population: 24,000
Race: White (65%), Black (29%), Asian (4%), Hispanic (1%) Other (1%)
Median Household Income: $22,590
Population affiliated with a religious congregation: 48%
Religion (of those who attend services): Evangelical Protestant (44%), Mainline Protestant (32%), Catholic (18%), Muslim (2%), Jewish (1%), Others (3%)   
Percent of married couple households: 34%



Just eyeing the white percentage I'd say about 65% Republican

You would be wrong.  This is Starkville, Mississippi--home of Mississippi State University--a college town that voted for Obama in 2008.

Interesting, I thought something seemed different with the religious data, but in the end the south and small town won me (wrongly) over.

The low percentage of households with married couples would have also been a large indicator of a very young (college aged) population.
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« Reply #24 on: June 12, 2012, 03:58:47 pm »
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Where are you guys getting the religious data?

Try and guess this one which is a real city in Southern California:

Type: Suburban
Region: Southern California
Population: 48,527
Race: White (38%), Black (2.3%), Asian (17.8%), Hispanic (39.7%)
Median Household Income: $79,347

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