Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 22, 2014, 10:26:16 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  The California State Senate elections
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: The California State Senate elections  (Read 451 times)
○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31892


View Profile
« on: June 09, 2012, 11:30:41 pm »
Ignore

Can the Democrats get a 2/3rds majority? They need 27/40. They have 14/20 of those not up, so need 13/20 of those up.

Note that the November turnout should be more Democratic than the June turnout

5 of those are D vs D races, so the Democrats have a safe 18 right there.

The following 7 had Democrats get >54%. These are pretty safe too. 7, 11, 17, 19, 25, 35, 39. So, 25 pretty safe.


The following 5 had Republicans break 60%, and are off the table, 1,21, 23, 29, 37.

The 5th had the Republicans win 59-41, and have a registration advantage, so probably R.

That leaves as the two really competitive districts.

27: Democrat lost 49-51, and has a 5 point registration advantage. With higher turnout, the Democrat would be favored.
31: Again the Republican got 51%, but there were 2 Democrats. Harder for the Democrat to win than the 27th, but the Democrat could be favored with a high turnout



Note that it would be unlikely that they would get a 2/3rds majority in the Assembly.
Logged
All In For KC
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18438
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #1 on: June 09, 2012, 11:49:30 pm »
Ignore

No party should have supermajorities in the legislature and the executive branch. Just my opinion - we're close to it here in Indiana.
Logged


"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives."
-Jackie Robinson
Senator bore
bore
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2703
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: June 10, 2012, 04:31:28 am »
Ignore

No party should have supermajorities in the legislature and the executive branch. Just my opinion - we're close to it here in Indiana.

Normally I'd agree with you, excessively large majorities allow the government to force through whatever it wants without listening to public opinion (or the governor's for that matter) and that tends to hurt a country or state. But when you need 2/3rds to pass even the smallest of tax raises it isn't a normal situation and can't really compared to Indiana, in the same way a 60% share of the senate is nowhere near as large as a 60% share in the house.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines