Senior citizens hate him for Obamacare (though are somewhat indifferent to Romney the architect), and within that group Jews'll go Romney's way if he picks Cantor for Veep, Cubans are spoken for so that leaves blacks and Puerto Ricans. Na, he can't win Florida.
North Carolina voted against samesex marriage at the polls just before Obama 'came out' for it. He can kiss babies with Bev Perdue and Kay Hagan as much as he wants -it's not gonna change anything. Missouri's forgotten the mormon war but has Mitt? Hmm... That qualifies as a tossup, as is AZ.
This election is in the hands of the unemployed, Hispanics and Mormons. The states of Ohio, Colorado and Nevada will likely be decided by each respective group.
Pretty accurate analysis, though I think Hispanics will have greater influence in Nevada than Mormons.