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Author Topic: ND-Mason Dixon: Romney up 13  (Read 1152 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: June 11, 2012, 02:07:22 am »



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On to the Presidential race, North Dakota is traditionally a red state. So far, Mitt Romney has a 52 to 39 percent edge over President Barack Obama. Interestingly, it is a close battle in Fargo where Romney is only ahead by two percent, while in eastern North Dakota, he holds a one point advantage. Romney is the overwhelming favorite in Bismarck-Mandan and the western half of the state.

http://www.kfyrtv.com/News_Stories.asp?news=57558
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Senator Polnut
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« Reply #1 on: June 11, 2012, 02:08:23 am »
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That's not an awful result for Obama...
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« Reply #2 on: June 11, 2012, 02:16:04 am »

That's not an awful result for Obama...

Considering that Kerry and Gore lost by almost 30 and Obama lost by 9 in 2008 - it's certainly not.
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #3 on: June 11, 2012, 08:32:54 am »
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Something slightly odd is happening in North Dakota. But either way, it's not a state either candidate needs to be concerned with this time around. In ten years, though...
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anvi
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« Reply #4 on: June 11, 2012, 08:43:24 am »
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Fargo and Grand Forks have always been pretty big Dem strongholds, while center and west have been pretty solid Republican, statists and sometimes even Libertarian leaning areas.  The eastern side of the state has traditionally elected lots of Dem senators and congresspeople.  But now, with the oil boom, there are lots of people in the state who have recently moved there from Michigan.  As the generation turns, it might be interesting to see what happens in the state, but I expect it to continue to belong to the GOP in presidential races at least in my lifetime.
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Torie
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« Reply #5 on: June 11, 2012, 09:06:51 am »
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The oil patch over time is going to put the Dems out of business in ND.
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« Reply #6 on: June 11, 2012, 09:09:21 am »
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Something slightly odd is happening in North Dakota. But either way, it's not a state either candidate needs to be concerned with this time around. In ten years, though...

I don't know, with the oil boom the state is only getting more conservative but when the boom goes bust a dramatic shift will happen. All of these polls show a big east west divide, Romney is only up by 1% in the eastern half of the state but he is pounding Obama out west.

ND is an odd state. Half of the state is like Iowa while the other half is like Wyoming.
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Torie
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« Reply #7 on: June 11, 2012, 09:27:00 am »
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Something slightly odd is happening in North Dakota. But either way, it's not a state either candidate needs to be concerned with this time around. In ten years, though...

I don't know, with the oil boom the state is only getting more conservative but when the boom goes bust a dramatic shift will happen. All of these polls show a big east west divide, Romney is only up by 1% in the eastern half of the state but he is pounding Obama out west.

ND is an odd state. Half of the state is like Iowa while the other half is like Wyoming.

Those fields are going to keep producing for a long time. They are huge. And right now a one bedroom apartment up there in the NE corner of ND and anywhere within a 100 miles in the middle of nowhere but rigs and ice and wind with the odd cow wandering around goes for about $2500 a month or something.
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« Reply #8 on: June 11, 2012, 09:41:22 am »
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Something slightly odd is happening in North Dakota. But either way, it's not a state either candidate needs to be concerned with this time around. In ten years, though...

I don't know, with the oil boom the state is only getting more conservative but when the boom goes bust a dramatic shift will happen. All of these polls show a big east west divide, Romney is only up by 1% in the eastern half of the state but he is pounding Obama out west.

ND is an odd state. Half of the state is like Iowa while the other half is like Wyoming.

Those fields are going to keep producing for a long time. They are huge. And right now a one bedroom apartment up there in the NE corner of ND and anywhere within a 100 miles in the middle of nowhere but rigs and ice and wind with the odd cow wandering around goes for about $2500 a month or something.

I agree I don't see it ending anytime soon, things could very well keep on booming for another 15-20 years.
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« Reply #9 on: June 11, 2012, 09:53:41 am »
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I'm sure Romney wins ND by at least 20. 
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« Reply #10 on: June 11, 2012, 10:18:55 am »
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The oil patch over time is going to put the Dems out of business in ND.

North Dakota Dems are against oil production?  Even when it makes the state budget, which is now able to fund more and more of their priorities, balloon?  News to me.  Especially with the following points on its party platform:

"ENERGY INDUSTRY

--RefineryThe Dem/NPL Party supports programs which would facilitate the construction of a refinery in the state and urges the legislature to investigate the possibility of state/private partnerships to assist in the development of refining capacity.
--Pipelines, transmission lines and refinery Dem-NPL supports the State continue to assist in expanding and modernization of pipelines, transmission lines, and additional oil refining capacity in an environmentally responsible manner.
Investment in energy transmission The Dem-NPL supports the State to invest in and develop the infrastructure necessary to have our own natural gas and crude oil refining facilities.
--Energy Transmission The Dem-NPL supports policies that will lead to the expansion of North Dakota’s energy transmission capabilities."

http://www.demnpl.com/index.asp?Type=B_BASIC&SEC={4833FFC1-6E82-4B15-9876-D87BFF531F5A}
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Torie
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« Reply #11 on: June 11, 2012, 10:38:36 am »
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The oil patch over time is going to put the Dems out of business in ND.

North Dakota Dems are against oil production?  Even when it makes the state budget, which is now able to fund more and more of their priorities, balloon?  News to me.  Especially with the following points on its party platform:

"ENERGY INDUSTRY

--RefineryThe Dem/NPL Party supports programs which would facilitate the construction of a refinery in the state and urges the legislature to investigate the possibility of state/private partnerships to assist in the development of refining capacity.
--Pipelines, transmission lines and refinery Dem-NPL supports the State continue to assist in expanding and modernization of pipelines, transmission lines, and additional oil refining capacity in an environmentally responsible manner.
Investment in energy transmission The Dem-NPL supports the State to invest in and develop the infrastructure necessary to have our own natural gas and crude oil refining facilities.
--Energy Transmission The Dem-NPL supports policies that will lead to the expansion of North Dakota’s energy transmission capabilities."

http://www.demnpl.com/index.asp?Type=B_BASIC&SEC={4833FFC1-6E82-4B15-9876-D87BFF531F5A}


The oil patch is a Pub constituency. Just like Hollywood is a Dem one. Smiley Do you know any Dems representing a fossil fuel zone these days (other than one holdout in WV which is trending Pub at warp speed)?  A Dem trying to go native to fit in is futile. The zone knows that the Dems overall will favor preserving the snail darter and native grasses, and windmills while raising fossil fuel taxes to save the species and the planet every day of the week.

Anyway, NW ND has trended pub in both the 2004 and 2008 election cycles.
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« Reply #12 on: June 11, 2012, 11:04:33 am »
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Sure glad North Dakota is being polled, was worried about that one.

/Sarcasm
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« Reply #13 on: June 11, 2012, 11:34:42 am »
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Fargo and Grand Forks have always been pretty big Dem strongholds

Huh? Obama was the first Democrat to win the counties of either since 1964. I mean yeah they have some rather Democratic areas inside them like some state leg districts (Kerry won only two state leg seats in ND, one on a Reservation, the other in Fargo), but neither city is a stronghold.
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« Reply #14 on: June 11, 2012, 12:49:41 pm »
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The oil patch is a Pub constituency. Just like Hollywood is a Dem one. Smiley Do you know any Dems representing a fossil fuel zone these days (other than one holdout in WV which is trending Pub at warp speed)?  A Dem trying to go native to fit in is futile. The zone knows that the Dems overall will favor preserving the snail darter and native grasses, and windmills while raising fossil fuel taxes to save the species and the planet every day of the week.

Anyway, NW ND has trended pub in both the 2004 and 2008 election cycles.

Mark Begich, Mary Landrieu. Begich was elected under unusual circumstances but both of them have been happy carrying water for oil as skillfully as a Republican would. If Landrieu loses, it won't be over environmentalism.

With role models like AK and LA, though, this post makes me wonder if oil's going to corrupt one of the few reliably clean state governments in the country...
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« Reply #15 on: June 11, 2012, 12:51:21 pm »
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Ok, stronghold is too strong a word.  But there are more Democrats in North Dakota's large cities, particularly on the western side of the state, and that's generally been true for a while, no?  I'm not talking about national elections (as I noted above, I expect North Dakota to vote GOP in presidential races in the foreseeable future).  Where did Quentin Burdick build his political base during and after he successfully got the North Dakota NPL allied with the Democratic party?  Fargo, no?  Wasn't that also basically George Sinner's base of operations in doing so much work at NDSU?  Of the "whopping" 12 members of the North Dakota state Senate, aren't 7 of them representing western counties?  And, while he won't come close to winning the state, where is Obama polling better in North Dakota again?  And, yeah, all Dems everywhere are against oil production, which explains very nicely why oil production has spiraled upward during the tenure of a Democratic president, whose Department of the Interior is leasing out all that land and approving all those offshore drilling projects.  And North Dakota Democrats will take a united stand against oil production even if it costs them their very existence in statewide politics?  It must be "Stereotype Monday."
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« Reply #16 on: June 11, 2012, 08:15:57 pm »
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Now anvi, I am just saying it is tough to go native, if your national party is on the "wrong" side of an issue. You just aren't trusted. Sure oil production is going up. Obama of course had nothing to do with it. There is a long lead time before production gets going, and God was generous. He decreed all those fields in NW ND would be on private land over which the government has no jurisdiction on this issue. The best Obama could do was stop a pipeline from being constructed, to make it cheaper to get stuff to market. Tongue
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anvi
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« Reply #17 on: June 11, 2012, 09:15:19 pm »
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What about offshore drilling permits, shallow and deep water, that have to be approved by the Department of Interior?  I suppose none of those count since the pace slowed down since Deep Water Horizon...God forbid we have any regulatory controls whatsoever after that.  And Keystone...ok, so the only standards on the table are immediate jobs and increased piping?  Never mind how many times TransCanada has been sued for jacked-up tolls, and how much cost overruns have increased the price of shipping, we should just all trust the company at face value of course.  Also, of course, Cardno Etrix, a big business partner of TransCanada, should be trusted to do the lone environmental impact study on the pipeline, and the Perryman group which was hired by TransCanada to do an economic impact study should be our only source of information too.  And forget about how Keystone's pipeline will effect the production of other American pipelines also.  And what's the percentage of oil we will get from the pipeline compared to the percentage that is being exported?  'Tis all so beautifully simple.

But, be of good cheer, all.  Governor Romney will certainly win North Dakota, and by a healthy margin.  And so will every other GOP candidate for president as long as I continue to draw breath.     
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« Reply #18 on: June 11, 2012, 10:38:53 pm »
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What on earth caused you to start reading about "Transcanada," as opposed to doing something worthwhile, like watching porno if your gf is in the wrong state?  We need to get over this Transcanada thing before we make much more progress here anvi.  I didn't have "Transcanada" penciled in when I took my little foray to inspect your front lines. I mean you live a long way from Canada. How on earth was I supposed to be prepared for this?  After we work through this all, we can then back to the serious business of x'raying into Obama's soul to find out just why he hates fossil fuels so much.

Sound like a plan? Smiley
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« Reply #19 on: June 12, 2012, 03:53:56 pm »
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Someone enter this please.
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« Reply #20 on: June 12, 2012, 04:53:24 pm »
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Does sound like a plan, Torie.  Smiley  But I don't live a long way from Canada at the moment; in fact I'm writing from Halifax, where I'm spending the summer with said gf.  And I grew up less than a day's drive from the International Peace Gardens, and watched as wave after wave of Canadian shoppers wafted down to North Dakota stores, of all places, to stock up on purchases to take back home every weekend.  So, Canadian shenanigans are no less distant from me than good ol' American ones.  Smiley  I'm already starting to say "eh?" very naturally at the end of questions too.  So...maybe some good porno is not such a bad idea after all.  I'd rather stare at that than into Obama's soul anyway.
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