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Author Topic: Iowa still a battleground state  (Read 848 times)
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olawakandi
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« on: June 12, 2012, 11:42:28 am »
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R: 47 D: 46

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/
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brittain33
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« Reply #1 on: June 12, 2012, 11:52:23 am »
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Did anyone else guess this was a Rassy from the headline?
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MilesC56
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« Reply #2 on: June 12, 2012, 11:57:34 am »
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Database entry.

Quote from: brittain33 on June 12, 2012, 11:52:23 am
Did anyone else guess this was a Rassy from the headline?

I saw this on the Rasmussen site; olawakandi beat me to posting it. But, yeah, this is Rasmussen being Rasmussen.
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Umengus
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« Reply #3 on: June 12, 2012, 01:42:28 pm »
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it's not the first to give a tie in Iowa. Marist gave a tie last week and DMR poll gave Romney +2 in february...
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #4 on: June 12, 2012, 02:13:09 pm »
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This is right on track with what other polls are saying, so I see no reason to dismiss it.

A surprise overall - I expected Iowa to be around +5 Obama at this point.
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Quote from: John_Engle on November 02, 2012, 04:25:37 pm
Tmthforu94

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timothyinMD
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« Reply #5 on: June 12, 2012, 02:27:11 pm »
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Quote from: Tmthforu94 on June 12, 2012, 02:13:09 pm
This is right on track with what other polls are saying, so I see no reason to dismiss it.

A surprise overall - I expected Iowa to be around +5 Obama at this point.

Why?  Iowa swung pretty Republican in 2010, and its the ripest of the swing states for Romney to take away
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brittain33
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« Reply #6 on: June 12, 2012, 03:38:40 pm »
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Quote from: timothyinMD on June 12, 2012, 02:27:11 pm
Why?  Iowa swung pretty Republican in 2010

Relative to what? Every state swung pretty Republican.
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #7 on: June 12, 2012, 05:18:48 pm »
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Also look at the voter rolls. Democrats have sank like a rock
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brittain33
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« Reply #8 on: June 12, 2012, 08:14:09 pm »
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Quote from: timothyinMD on June 12, 2012, 05:18:48 pm
Also look at the voter rolls. Democrats have sank like a rock

That happens when you go from a super competitive Dem race in 2008 to nothing but an R caucus in 2012.
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ucscgaldamez
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« Reply #9 on: June 13, 2012, 01:59:07 am »
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The sample is R+5. Obama +1 among independents. 33R-28D-39I
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JulioMadrid
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« Reply #10 on: June 13, 2012, 05:20:53 am »
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Quote from: ucscgaldamez on June 13, 2012, 01:59:07 am
The sample is R+5. Obama +1 among independents. 33R-28D-39I

Why didn't umengus point out that fact in his post? Maybe it was because the poll benefits republicans...
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Rowan
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« Reply #11 on: June 13, 2012, 07:39:38 am »
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Quote from: JulioMadrid on June 13, 2012, 05:20:53 am
Quote from: ucscgaldamez on June 13, 2012, 01:59:07 am
The sample is R+5. Obama +1 among independents. 33R-28D-39I

Why didn't umengus point out that fact in his post? Maybe it was because the poll benefits republicans...

Or because that information is only available to subscribers and umengus is not one...
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Umengus
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« Reply #12 on: June 13, 2012, 02:49:19 pm »
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Quote from: Rowan on June 13, 2012, 07:39:38 am
Quote from: JulioMadrid on June 13, 2012, 05:20:53 am
Quote from: ucscgaldamez on June 13, 2012, 01:59:07 am
The sample is R+5. Obama +1 among independents. 33R-28D-39I

Why didn't umengus point out that fact in his post? Maybe it was because the poll benefits republicans...

Or because that information is only available to subscribers and umengus is not one...

correct...

If Romney leads by 1 but Obama leads by 1 amongst I in a R+5 sample, I suppose that Romney can again  win voters amongst republicans...

All in all, the result seems correct.
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Umengus
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« Reply #13 on: June 13, 2012, 03:02:00 pm »
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and a R+5 is not an outrage considering the D+1 in 2008... A swing of 6 is quite possible
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #14 on: June 13, 2012, 03:31:27 pm »
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Quote from: Aubry Muslim connection on June 13, 2012, 03:02:00 pm
and a R+5 is not an outrage considering the D+1 in 2008... A swing of 6 is quite possible

Was only R+2 in 2004. I have no doubt the state has swung to the right since 2008 but I don't think it is more Republican than it was in 2004.
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