Can Obama still win at this point?

[Clinton 2016]

I am starting to lose faith now with the polls coming out of WI,NC,FL,VA showing Romney ahead.

Can obama still win?

[I left.]

No. He should start packing immediately. No point in holding the election any more, actually.

[OC]

Yes, he can still win, but should concentrate on a 270 electoral vote path not more than that to victory. Concentrate on mostly CO,NV,OH.

[Speaker Dereich]

What? Romney isn't out of the MoE in any of the key states he needs to win. Obama's probably still favored to win.

[BushKenya]

I am starting to lose faith now with the polls coming out of WI,NC,FL,VA showing Romney ahead.

Can obama still win?

It's going to be hard for him for sure, but look at the calendar.  It's only JUNE 13!!!  We still have 4 1/2 months until Election Day and 2 1/2 months until the Conventions.  If this were October 13, I would be a lot more concerned, but it's not.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I am starting to lose faith now with the polls coming out of WI,NC,FL,VA showing Romney ahead.

Can obama still win?

I lost faith in Rasmussen.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Yeah, Obama can still win and probably has an advantage just for being an incumbent.

But the race has gotten a lot closer to being a 50/50 toss-up than it was in the primaries. I figure we could even see Romney become the favourite by the end of August.

[Sheliak5]

Not only can he still win, I'd say he's favored.

[mondale84]

Of course. Just like President Bush (Jr.) could still at this point 8 years ago...

[Bandit3 the Worker]

He can count on me and others to save him, as long as he doesn't kook out like Clinton did. Trust me, he's not going down to Romney.

It would be better if he went full 99%, but at this point, I'd be satisfied to see him win again.

[Senator Snowstalker]

I love how Obama's inevitable demise is forecasted the moment he isn't decisively leading Romney. Dukakis was leading Bush by double digits after the convention, remember.

[Umengus]

I love how Obama's inevitable demise is forecasted the moment he isn't decisively leading Romney. Dukakis was leading Bush by double digits after the convention, remember.

probably not because it was a gallup poll...

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

No. He should start packing immediately. No point in holding the election any more, actually.

IT'S OVEEEER!

[Minnesota Mike]

Not only can he still win, I'd say he's favored.

[I left.]

He can count on me and others to save him, as long as he doesn't kook out like Clinton did. Trust me, he's not going down to Romney.

It would be better if he went full 99%, but at this point, I'd be satisfied to see him win again.

And why exactly should I trust you of all people?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

And why exactly should I trust you of all people?

Bandit follows through.

[Frodo]

Yes, but if the jobs report numbers that we saw for May continue to disappoint up through Labor Day, the map is going to look a lot like this:

[The Mikado]

Neither Obama nor Romney will be decisively "out" until September at the earliest (I didn't rule out a McCain win until early October last cycle, for example).

[BushKenya]

Yes, but if the jobs report numbers that we saw for May continue to disappoint up through Labor Day, the map is going to look a lot like this:

If things get really bad (aka Europe), I've got a funny feeling we'll see this map, albeit with Michigan flipped, making for a really bad day at the office for President Obama.

[nhmagic]

I'd say its still 50/50, but the O campaign has serious telltale signs of disaster.

-Desperate and extra-gimmicky fundraising: Sarah Jessica Parker, Pick the Celebrity, hes doing numerous fundraisers - more than even Bush did in his reelection effort and still didnt match Romney recently
-Negative and gimmick advertising: the life of Julia (a woman who for all intents and purposes is a deified welfare queen, having her entire life subsidized by the government), "We've got your back" - a stereotypical, almost racist, blaxploitation ad that screams he desperately needs his base, and the other negative tv ads on Romney I see daily
-The Clinton wing attacks - Bill's endorsement/non-endorsement of Romney and ruination of the let's go after Romney for Bain strategy, various former Clinton admin tv commentators smelling blood
-Non Clinton wing disappointment and blame game
-the slight polling shift, though I strongly believe that the heavy dem voter models inside the polls are insane
-the little things sticking out because of bad economic news, stuff that wouldnt if the economy were good
-Gimmick policy positions - like the "evolution" to supporting SSM in order to turn out gays, the "War on Women" pablum, etc.
-NYT leaking national security secrets to make Obama look strong on defense

Ain't lookin good...

[cope1989]

I'd say its still 50/50, but the O campaign has serious telltale signs of disaster.

-Desperate and extra-gimmicky fundraising: Sarah Jessica Parker, Pick the Celebrity, hes doing numerous fundraisers - more than even Bush did in his reelection effort and still didnt match Romney recently
-Negative and gimmick advertising: the life of Julia (a woman who for all intents and purposes is a deified welfare queen, having her entire life subsidized by the government), "We've got your back" - a stereotypical, almost racist, blaxploitation ad that screams he desperately needs his base, and the other negative tv ads on Romney I see daily
-The Clinton wing attacks - Bill's endorsement/non-endorsement of Romney and ruination of the let's go after Romney for Bain strategy, various former Clinton admin tv commentators smelling blood
-Non Clinton wing disappointment and blame game
-the slight polling shift, though I strongly believe that the heavy dem voter models inside the polls are insane
-the little things sticking out because of bad economic news, stuff that wouldnt if the economy were good
-Gimmick policy positions - like the "evolution" to supporting SSM in order to turn out gays, the "War on Women" pablum, etc.
-NYT leaking national security secrets to make Obama look strong on defense

Ain't lookin good...

A lot of that is subjective

If you look at things like economic indicators (which are still positive), favorability numbers and party support, Obama still has the edge.

And I think Romney's tactic of controlling the message by refusing to talk about things will backfire in the fall. It will eventually come off as off putting and sneaky to most people.

I'm kind of glad the race has tightened, as it makes the election more exciting, especially on the forum. But is 2012 really any different from other races? I mean, every year, the supporters of the challenger are convinced their guy has a shot, and they'll list a million reasons why. But honestly, incumbents rarely lose their reelection bids, and it takes very dramatic circumstances for the opposite to happen.

[Lloyd Bentsen's Ghost]

How much does June polling tell you? Absolutely nothing.

The only voters who are really "engaged" at this stage are the people who are already spoken for Obama or Romney. We haven't had the conventions yet, Romney still doesn't have a running mate. The campaign isn't going to "really" start until mid-August, after the Olympics are over.

[Purch]

Look at who he's facing. No matter how bad the economy gets a weak candidate doesn't suddenly stop being weak.

[wan]

If the month of May had decent job numbers obama would be at 58-59 percent on intrade and we woundn't be having this conversation. I'm still voting obama. Romney is a snake

[BushKenya]

Look at who he's facing. No matter how bad the economy gets a weak candidate doesn't suddenly stop being weak.

I wouldn't exactly call Romney a weak candidate.  Gingrich or Santorum would be weak candidates (sorry, Phil).  Mittens is a pretty formidable candidate.