AZ-PPP/Project New America (D): Obama down by 3
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Author Topic: AZ-PPP/Project New America (D): Obama down by 3  (Read 4327 times)
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #25 on: June 19, 2012, 09:43:53 PM »

Romney won't get more than Bush or McCain got, it's not really possible. Who is going to vote for Romney that didn't vote for Bush or McCain? Most of Arizona's Democratic vote in presidential is settled.

Clinton 46%
Gore 44%
Kerry 44%
Obama 45%


People who support traditional marriage.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #26 on: June 19, 2012, 10:05:30 PM »

I don't see how Romney gets any better than Bush's 55-44 in 2004.

58% or 60%? No way.


Easy. By winning a huge margin among whites.

Kerry got 41% of the white vote in 2004 and even with McCain on the ballot, Obama's share was still 40%. Its tough to see it falling drastically below that.

Obama made some inroads with white voters neighboring Colorado and Nevada. He got 50% in Nevada, up from Kerry's 42% and 45% in Colorado, slightly better than Kerry's 43%.


Romney won't get more than Bush or McCain got, it's not really possible. Who is going to vote for Romney that didn't vote for Bush or McCain? Most of Arizona's Democratic vote in presidential is settled.

Clinton 46%
Gore 44%
Kerry 44%
Obama 45%


People who support traditional marriage.

People like you really make social conservatives look bad. I support traditional marriage, I have a 5.39 PM social score and I'm supporting Obama. Now what!?
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Kevin
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« Reply #27 on: June 19, 2012, 10:13:41 PM »

I don't see how Romney gets any better than Bush's 55-44 in 2004.

58% or 60%? No way.


Easy. By winning a huge margin among whites.

Kerry got 41% of the white vote in 2004 and even with McCain on the ballot, Obama's share was still 40%. Its tough to see it falling drastically below that.

Obama made some inroads with white voters neighboring Colorado and Nevada. He got 50% in Nevada, up from Kerry's 42% and 45% in Colorado, slightly better than Kerry's 43%.


Romney won't get more than Bush or McCain got, it's not really possible. Who is going to vote for Romney that didn't vote for Bush or McCain? Most of Arizona's Democratic vote in presidential is settled.

Clinton 46%
Gore 44%
Kerry 44%
Obama 45%


People who support traditional marriage.

People like you really make social conservatives look bad. I support traditional marriage, I have a 5.39 PM social score and I'm supporting Obama. Now what!?

Miles,

Keep in mind many of the Democratic inroads amongst Southwestern whites has been erased like they have nationwide since 2008. And the many people(independents, liberal-leaning Republicans, civil liberterians etc) who may have voted for both Kerry+Obama or Bush+Obama have been gradually moving back towards the GOP.

So Romney winning more then ether McCain or even Bush is not of the question at all.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #28 on: June 19, 2012, 10:18:43 PM »

Bush senior in '88 won AZ with 59.95% of the vote compared to 38.74% Dukakis. Reagan got 60.61% of the vote in '80, it's possible to happen in 2012.

Arizona 1990:

White - 71.7%
Latino - 18.8%

Arizona 2010:

White - 57.8%
Latino - 29.6%

Demographic shifts aren't assured when economic policies are most important topics for 2012.

They are when the people comprising those demographics favor Democrats' general approach to the economy.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #29 on: June 20, 2012, 06:52:10 AM »

I don't see how Romney gets any better than Bush's 55-44 in 2004.

58% or 60%? No way.


Easy. By winning a huge margin among whites.

Romney would have to get a bigger margin among whites than John McCain did, and that would be difficult. 
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krazen1211
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #30 on: June 20, 2012, 07:20:23 AM »

I don't see how Romney gets any better than Bush's 55-44 in 2004.

58% or 60%? No way.


Easy. By winning a huge margin among whites.

Kerry got 41% of the white vote in 2004 and even with McCain on the ballot, Obama's share was still 40%. Its tough to see it falling drastically below that.

Obama made some inroads with white voters neighboring Colorado and Nevada. He got 50% in Nevada, up from Kerry's 42% and 45% in Colorado, slightly better than Kerry's 43%.


Romney won't get more than Bush or McCain got, it's not really possible. Who is going to vote for Romney that didn't vote for Bush or McCain? Most of Arizona's Democratic vote in presidential is settled.

Clinton 46%
Gore 44%
Kerry 44%
Obama 45%


People who support traditional marriage.

People like you really make social conservatives look bad. I support traditional marriage, I have a 5.39 PM social score and I'm supporting Obama. Now what!?




Jan Brewer's opponent clocked in at a mere 36% of whites or so due to the heavy popularity of Arizona's immigration law heavily supported by Arizona whites. Obama 2012 of course opposes that law while Kerry did not in 2004.

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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #31 on: June 20, 2012, 11:46:36 AM »

I don't see how Romney gets any better than Bush's 55-44 in 2004.

58% or 60%? No way.


Easy. By winning a huge margin among whites.

Kerry got 41% of the white vote in 2004 and even with McCain on the ballot, Obama's share was still 40%. Its tough to see it falling drastically below that.

Obama made some inroads with white voters neighboring Colorado and Nevada. He got 50% in Nevada, up from Kerry's 42% and 45% in Colorado, slightly better than Kerry's 43%.


Romney won't get more than Bush or McCain got, it's not really possible. Who is going to vote for Romney that didn't vote for Bush or McCain? Most of Arizona's Democratic vote in presidential is settled.

Clinton 46%
Gore 44%
Kerry 44%
Obama 45%


People who support traditional marriage.

People like you really make social conservatives look bad. I support traditional marriage, I have a 5.39 PM social score and I'm supporting Obama. Now what!?




Jan Brewer's opponent clocked in at a mere 36% of whites or so due to the heavy popularity of Arizona's immigration law heavily supported by Arizona whites. Obama 2012 of course opposes that law while Kerry did not in 2004.



Ok, Krazen, now, let's talk after the elections. You remind me of Phil saying he was sure Sarkozy would win last month...
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #32 on: June 20, 2012, 12:14:23 PM »

I don't see how Romney gets any better than Bush's 55-44 in 2004.

58% or 60%? No way.


Easy. By winning a huge margin among whites.

Kerry got 41% of the white vote in 2004 and even with McCain on the ballot, Obama's share was still 40%. Its tough to see it falling drastically below that.

Obama made some inroads with white voters neighboring Colorado and Nevada. He got 50% in Nevada, up from Kerry's 42% and 45% in Colorado, slightly better than Kerry's 43%.


Romney won't get more than Bush or McCain got, it's not really possible. Who is going to vote for Romney that didn't vote for Bush or McCain? Most of Arizona's Democratic vote in presidential is settled.

Clinton 46%
Gore 44%
Kerry 44%
Obama 45%


People who support traditional marriage.

People like you really make social conservatives look bad. I support traditional marriage, I have a 5.39 PM social score and I'm supporting Obama. Now what!?




Jan Brewer's opponent clocked in at a mere 36% of whites or so due to the heavy popularity of Arizona's immigration law heavily supported by Arizona whites. Obama 2012 of course opposes that law while Kerry did not in 2004.



Exactly. Brewer got 61% with whites and still only got 54% statewide. If Romney duplicates that, and you throw in Presidential-year Hispanic turnout, I don't see how Romney gets the 58%-60% overall that you're projecting he will.
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krazen1211
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #33 on: June 20, 2012, 12:57:03 PM »

I don't see how Romney gets any better than Bush's 55-44 in 2004.

58% or 60%? No way.


Easy. By winning a huge margin among whites.

Kerry got 41% of the white vote in 2004 and even with McCain on the ballot, Obama's share was still 40%. Its tough to see it falling drastically below that.

Obama made some inroads with white voters neighboring Colorado and Nevada. He got 50% in Nevada, up from Kerry's 42% and 45% in Colorado, slightly better than Kerry's 43%.


Romney won't get more than Bush or McCain got, it's not really possible. Who is going to vote for Romney that didn't vote for Bush or McCain? Most of Arizona's Democratic vote in presidential is settled.

Clinton 46%
Gore 44%
Kerry 44%
Obama 45%


People who support traditional marriage.

People like you really make social conservatives look bad. I support traditional marriage, I have a 5.39 PM social score and I'm supporting Obama. Now what!?




Jan Brewer's opponent clocked in at a mere 36% of whites or so due to the heavy popularity of Arizona's immigration law heavily supported by Arizona whites. Obama 2012 of course opposes that law while Kerry did not in 2004.



Exactly. Brewer got 61% with whites and still only got 54% statewide. If Romney duplicates that, and you throw in Presidential-year Hispanic turnout, I don't see how Romney gets the 58%-60% overall that you're projecting he will.

Certainly that is true; due to a 3rd party libertarian, Brewer got only 54% statewide. Without that vote siphon she certainly would have made up the half point required to beat President Bush in 2004.

63% of whites will put Romney close to 58% or at the very minimum higher than President Bush. One wonders how Obama can do better than a statewide official like Goddard among whites while he opposes and tries to scuttle the immigration law.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #34 on: June 20, 2012, 01:32:08 PM »

I don't see how Romney gets any better than Bush's 55-44 in 2004.

58% or 60%? No way.


Easy. By winning a huge margin among whites.

Kerry got 41% of the white vote in 2004 and even with McCain on the ballot, Obama's share was still 40%. Its tough to see it falling drastically below that.

Obama made some inroads with white voters neighboring Colorado and Nevada. He got 50% in Nevada, up from Kerry's 42% and 45% in Colorado, slightly better than Kerry's 43%.


Romney won't get more than Bush or McCain got, it's not really possible. Who is going to vote for Romney that didn't vote for Bush or McCain? Most of Arizona's Democratic vote in presidential is settled.

Clinton 46%
Gore 44%
Kerry 44%
Obama 45%


People who support traditional marriage.

People like you really make social conservatives look bad. I support traditional marriage, I have a 5.39 PM social score and I'm supporting Obama. Now what!?




Jan Brewer's opponent clocked in at a mere 36% of whites or so due to the heavy popularity of Arizona's immigration law heavily supported by Arizona whites. Obama 2012 of course opposes that law while Kerry did not in 2004.



Exactly. Brewer got 61% with whites and still only got 54% statewide. If Romney duplicates that, and you throw in Presidential-year Hispanic turnout, I don't see how Romney gets the 58%-60% overall that you're projecting he will.

Certainly that is true; due to a 3rd party libertarian, Brewer got only 54% statewide. Without that vote siphon she certainly would have made up the half point required to beat President Bush in 2004.

63% of whites will put Romney close to 58% or at the very minimum higher than President Bush. One wonders how Obama can do better than a statewide official like Goddard among whites while he opposes and tries to scuttle the immigration law.


You don'y Gary Johnson will match or do better than the 2010 Libertarian's whopping 2%? Its not like he's a popular Governor from the neighboring state or anything. Johnson's votes there will of course hurt Romney the most.

According to the Magellan Strategies poll out last month, where Romney was up 9, 57% of white voters support the immigration law, but Obama is still holding onto 43% of the white vote.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #35 on: June 21, 2012, 07:48:40 AM »

Since Obama's down three, that puts him up in AZ with the third parties included. Man, that sucks that Mitt is going to lose, and lose big.
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