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| | | |-+  MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Obama
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Author Topic: MI: Foster McCollum White & Associates: Obama with a 2% Lead (within the MoE); Ficano Hurting Obama  (Read 1792 times)
Assemblyman & Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« on: June 14, 2012, 01:32:58 am »
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New Poll: Michigan President by Foster McCollum White & Associates on 2012-06-12

Summary: D: 47%, R: 45%, I: 4%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Question 1:

The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are

you more likely to vote for in the election??

1- President Barack Obama, 2- Mitt Romney, 3- Another candidate or 4- Undecided

(Barack Obama): 46.89%

(Mitt Romney): 45.48%

(Another candidate): 3.56%

(Undecided): 4.07%



The second question:

The ongoing scandal of Wayne County Government and the Democratic County

Executive Robert Ficano has dominated the news for the past 10 months. Does this

continuing scandal impact your view of President Obama and Democratic candidates for

the general election?

(View President Obama/Democratic candidates very unfavorably): 27.43%

(View President Obama/Democratic candidates somewhat unfavorably): 9.84%

Total Unfavorable 37.27%

(It does not impact my view of President Obama/Democratic candidates): 53.45%

Total Awareness factor 90.72%

(Unaware of the issue): 9.28%



Now, I don't think this issue will persist through November.  I think the state party will force Ficano out before then.  And even if they don't, I don't think it'll have as much of an effect on election day as it does now, since the anger at Ficano is fresher right now.



Still, this is a state that the DNC and Obama don't want to even have to worry about... it's going to be a blue state on election day, but through the summer, it could remain close like this.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2012, 03:53:26 am »
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New Poll: Michigan President by Foster McCollum White & Associates on 2012-06-12

Summary: D: 47%, R: 45%, I: 4%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Question 1:

The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are

you more likely to vote for in the election??

1- President Barack Obama, 2- Mitt Romney, 3- Another candidate or 4- Undecided

(Barack Obama): 46.89%

(Mitt Romney): 45.48%

(Another candidate): 3.56%

(Undecided): 4.07%



The second question:

The ongoing scandal of Wayne County Government and the Democratic County

Executive Robert Ficano has dominated the news for the past 10 months. Does this

continuing scandal impact your view of President Obama and Democratic candidates for

the general election?

(View President Obama/Democratic candidates very unfavorably): 27.43%

(View President Obama/Democratic candidates somewhat unfavorably): 9.84%

Total Unfavorable 37.27%

(It does not impact my view of President Obama/Democratic candidates): 53.45%

Total Awareness factor 90.72%

(Unaware of the issue): 9.28%



Now, I don't think this issue will persist through November.  I think the state party will force Ficano out before then.  And even if they don't, I don't think it'll have as much of an effect on election day as it does now, since the anger at Ficano is fresher right now.



Still, this is a state that the DNC and Obama don't want to even have to worry about... it's going to be a blue state on election day, but through the summer, it could remain close like this.

Again, an illustration of how news cycles can shape immediate perceptions. Wayne County and especially Detroit have been political snake-pits for decades. If Republicans pose as reformers it is as the sorts who would give everything to the economic elites who then decide that working people harder for less so that they can skim off more is a viable long-term solution.

Perhaps more significant is that "American Crossroads", Karl Rove's front organization, has lavished huge amounts of money on negative ads against the President and on Democrats in general in Michigan. 
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morgieb
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« Reply #2 on: June 14, 2012, 04:00:23 am »
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Anybody know about this polling firm's track record?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3 on: June 14, 2012, 06:55:52 am »
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Anybody know about this polling firm's track record?

Probably not as blatant as EPIC-MPRI.
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« Reply #4 on: June 14, 2012, 07:02:35 am »
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I'm sure Obama's lead is closer to 6.4542456743419%
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Senator Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #5 on: June 14, 2012, 08:14:34 am »
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Who are these Foster McCollum White & Associates people? How are their number so exact?
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« Reply #6 on: June 14, 2012, 10:27:13 am »
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"Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Democrat, an Independent, a Republican or a Tea Party member?"

lol
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« Reply #7 on: June 14, 2012, 10:39:07 am »
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Who are these Foster McCollum White & Associates people? How are their number so exact?

Well you see, when you divide one number into another number, usually it doesn't come out to an exactly even number..

Example:  493/860= 57.326%

Other pollsters typical release what we call "rounded numbers"
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Miles
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« Reply #8 on: June 14, 2012, 10:56:23 am »
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46% of respondents were 66 or older while only 4% were between 18 and 30. Maybe Michigan would actually be competitive if that was the real turnout.

2008 Exit Polls:
18-29: 20%
30-44: 28%
45-64: 37%
65+: 16%
« Last Edit: June 14, 2012, 11:00:24 am by MilesC56 »Logged


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« Reply #9 on: June 14, 2012, 12:14:25 pm »
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46% of respondents were 66 or older while only 4% were between 18 and 30. Maybe Michigan would actually be competitive if that was the real turnout.

2008 Exit Polls:
18-29: 20%
30-44: 28%
45-64: 37%
65+: 16%


LOL. And we thought YouGov was bad...
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« Reply #10 on: June 14, 2012, 12:15:03 pm »
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Who are these Foster McCollum White & Associates people? How are their number so exact?

it's a D firm (source: realclearpolitics)
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm  

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

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« Reply #11 on: June 14, 2012, 12:16:38 pm »
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Who are these Foster McCollum White & Associates people? How are their number so exact?

it's a D firm (source: realclearpolitics)

 You're using THEM as a source?
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Emperor Scott
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« Reply #12 on: June 14, 2012, 01:40:48 pm »
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Haha.  Push polls.
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A.G. Snowstalker
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« Reply #13 on: June 14, 2012, 01:42:14 pm »
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Yeah, push poll. Keep it out.
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GM Napoleon
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« Reply #14 on: June 14, 2012, 01:49:22 pm »
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Haha.  Push polls.

How is this a push poll?
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Emperor Scott
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« Reply #15 on: June 14, 2012, 01:52:15 pm »
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Haha.  Push polls.

How is this a push poll?

Quote
The ongoing scandal of Wayne County Government and the Democratic County

Executive Robert Ficano has dominated the news for the past 10 months. Does this

continuing scandal impact your view of President Obama and Democratic candidates for

the general election?
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #16 on: June 14, 2012, 01:57:16 pm »
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Haha.  Push polls.

The group did a good job on the Michigan primary. Had Romney beating Santorum by 2, and he actually won by 3. But worth mentioning no Republican has won Michigan or Wisconsin since Bush in 1988
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 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
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« Reply #17 on: June 14, 2012, 02:20:25 pm »
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Haha.  Push polls.

The group did a good job on the Michigan primary. Had Romney beating Santorum by 2, and he actually won by 3. But worth mentioning no Republican has won Michigan or Wisconsin since Bush in 1988

Yeah, this is another state like Wisconsin, I think. It's not likely to wind up in the Romney column, but Obama having to play defense there is not good for him.
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« Reply #18 on: June 14, 2012, 04:37:38 pm »
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Who are these Foster McCollum White & Associates people? How are their number so exact?

it's a D firm (source: realclearpolitics)

 You're using THEM as a source?



what is your problem with the source ? please, don't tell me that realclearpolitics is republican hack...
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm  

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
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« Reply #19 on: June 14, 2012, 05:07:34 pm »
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Haha.  Push polls.

How is this a push poll?

Quote
The ongoing scandal of Wayne County Government and the Democratic County

Executive Robert Ficano has dominated the news for the past 10 months. Does this

continuing scandal impact your view of President Obama and Democratic candidates for

the general election?

There was no push polling here.  Question order matters.  That question was asked after the Presidential horse race question, not before.  
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« Reply #20 on: June 14, 2012, 06:16:24 pm »
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Michigan won't flip outside of a landslide. Romney's only path is mostly through states that Bush won. Obama will win Michigan regardless of winning re-election or not.
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mondale84
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« Reply #21 on: June 14, 2012, 07:33:35 pm »
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Who are these Foster McCollum White & Associates people? How are their number so exact?

it's a D firm (source: realclearpolitics)

 You're using THEM as a source?



what is your problem with the source ? please, don't tell me that realclearpolitics is republican hack...

This is widely known, just take a look at their headlines...
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« Reply #22 on: June 14, 2012, 10:20:59 pm »
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Who are these Foster McCollum White & Associates people? How are their number so exact?

it's a D firm (source: realclearpolitics)

 You're using THEM as a source?



what is your problem with the source ? please, don't tell me that realclearpolitics is republican hack...

This is widely known, just take a look at their headlines...

Specifically, their original content. Its so overwhelmingly pro-Romney it makes me sick.
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Assemblyman & Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #23 on: June 15, 2012, 12:00:31 am »
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Haha.  Push polls.

How is this a push poll?

Quote
The ongoing scandal of Wayne County Government and the Democratic County

Executive Robert Ficano has dominated the news for the past 10 months. Does this

continuing scandal impact your view of President Obama and Democratic candidates for

the general election?

That was asked AFTER the Obama/Romney matchup.
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Assemblyman & Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #24 on: June 15, 2012, 12:01:33 am »
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Also, I believe this poll was commissioned by FOX 2 Detroit.
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