The Next Decade

[Senator Snowstalker]

FINAL RCP POLLING AVERAGE: 47.1 OBAMA, 46.6 ROMNEY

BIDEN GAFFE IN FLORIDA: "CRANKY OLD GUYS" VOTING AGAINST MEDICARE/SS INTERESTS

NOVEMBER JOBS REPORT: 135,000 JOBS CREATED IN BEST MONTH SINCE MARCH

NATE SILVER: SENATE CONTROL PURE TOSSUP; GOP LIKELY TO NARROWLY HOLD HOUSE

FINAL ATLAS POLLING AGGREGATE:




OBAMA: 247
ROMNEY: 235

[Comrade Shmoo]

Popcorn at the ready!

[Senator Snowstalker]

Chris Matthews: Welcome back to MSNBC's coverage of the 2012 elections.  Polls have now closed in six states, with some polls closed in two more. In addition, several gubernatorial races, 33 Senate seats, and all 435 seats in the House. We begin with presidential projections. As expected, Barack Obama will hold Vermont. Despite its Republican history, Vermont has swung solidly Democratic. Obama won in 2008 by a 2-1 margin, and was still far ahead of Romney in polling.

Kentucky, where some polls closed at 6 P.M., can be called for Governor Romney. Not a surprising result; no Democrat has won here since fellow Southerner Bill Clinton in 1996, and this was a strong John McCain state in 2008. South Carolina, another red state, is projected to fall to the Romney column as expected.



That gives Romney an early lead of 17 electoral votes to the president's 3.



Rachel Maddow: As Chris said, there are statewide races to watch tonight. Vermont seems to have a strong Democratic sweep tonight. Independent Bernie Sanders, who caucuses with the Democratic Party, is projected to easily hold his seat against businessman H. Brooke Paige. Governor Peter Shumlin, who won a very tight race in 2010, will win by a comfortable margin against state senator Randy Brock.

Two states to watch at a state level tonight are Indiana and Virginia. Though the state leans towards Romney, the Republican candidate for Senate, Treasurer Richard Mourdock, is in a tight race with Congressman Joe Donnelly. Mourdock, who defeated incumbent Dick Lugar in the GOP primary, is considered to be very conservative, Donnelly is a moderate Democrat with strong appeal to blue-collar voters, and in recent weeks the race has tightened. Virginia, possibly the most high-profile contest of the year, has been a massive battle between two statewide powerhouses: former Governor and DNC chairman Tim Kaine, and former Senator George Allen. Allen lost a tight race in 2006 to incumbent senator Jim Webb, who chose to retire after a single term.

Chris Matthews: Let's go over to Chuck, who has some exit poll analysis.


Chuck Todd: Thanks Chris. We'll take a look at South Carolina, a state where Romney has been projected winner. That was never truly in doubt, but there is something important to watch here; the African-American vote. Obviously President Obama swept here, winning 94% of African-Americans in the Palmetto State. But turnout is another issue. We don't know how high turnout has been, but it is down from 2008 according to sourced on the ground, especially in heavily black precincts. This is worrying for Obama's efforts in states like Virginia and Florida, where victory hinges on strong turnout from African-Americans. The Obama campaign has a massive get-out-the-vote campaign in those states, so they're hoping not to see these numbers in the battlegrounds where they have heavy infrastructure.

The Romney camp is watching this state from Boston as well. With white voters, it seems that Romney has won by nearly a 3 to 1 margin, similar to the 2008 result. What's the problem? Turnout with whites, especially rural whites, is also down. Romney faced big opposition here in the primaries, and although they're not worried about Obama doing better, they're worried that conservatives won't vote where they're key; again, places like Virginia, Florida, and Ohio.

[GPORTER]

This is good. Please continue

[Senator Snowstalker]

Rachel Maddow: Three more states have closed their polls at this hour. West Virginia can be projected for Romney. Once a Democratic stronghold, social conservatism has pushed West Virginia to lean Republican at a national level. A state that closed earlier can also be called for Romney. Georgia, with 16 electoral votes, was competitive in 2008, and the Obama camp hoped they could put it in play. Not so, as our exit polls suggest a 10-point victory for Governor Romney.



Obama: 3
Romney: 38

However, the Democrats do have good news down ballot. In two rematches of earlier elections, incumbent senator Joe Manchin will defeat businessman John Raese by over a 2 to 1 margin. Manchin is a noted conservative Democrat, and gave a lukewarm endorsement of President Obama after earlier stating he was undecided. Earl Ray Tomblin, the incumbent governor who succeeded Manchin, will also win easily against Bill Maloney.

Chris Matthews: Two major battlegrounds this year have also closed; the states of Ohio and North Carolina. No candidate has lost Ohio and won the election since Jack Kennedy in 1960, and as usual it may just decide the election. North Carolina leans a bit more towards Romney, but it has been trending Democratic, and the Democrats held their convention in Charlotte in hopes of winning it again. Both states are too close to call as of yet.

[kingthlayer]

Upping for truth and justice.

Seriously though, nice work so far!

[I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head]

Looking interesting.

[Jerseyrules]

Looking interesting.

[OC]

Bama/Biden             268
Romney/Portman     266

[Senator Snowstalker]

Obama: 74
Romney: 67


Rachel Maddow: During the break, we were able to project two states for Governor Romney--Indiana and Georgia. Indiana voted narrowly for Obama, while Georgia was a narrow McCain state. Both were expected to go to Governor Romney tonight, and that seems to have been confirmed.

Now at 8:00, many more states have closed their polling. Let's begin tonight with Maine, where President Obama is projected to win at least 3 of the state's 4 electoral votes. Here's the deal; Maine gives 2 electoral votes to the winner of the state overall, and awards 1 electoral vote to the winner of each of its two congressional districts. Obama will win the state, as well as Maine's 1st district, but the more rural 2nd is too close to call right now.

Chris Matthews: Here's a tough blow for Romney. We project that Obama will win the governor's home state of Massachusetts. This wasn't a shocking result; it's a solidly Democratic state which hasn't voted Republican since Reagan's 49-state landslide in 1984. We're watching a very tight Senate race between embattled incumbent Republican and his challenger, Elizabeth Warren.

Connecticut goes, as expected, to Obama's column. It's, again, a strongly Democratic state, and that streak continues tonight.

New Jersey can also be projected for Obama. Though they do have a popular Republican governor, Chris Christie, who was speculated as a possible VP pick for Romney, it is strongly Democratic at a presidential level, and the Romney camp never made a serious effort in the state.

Once the ultimate bellwether state, Delaware is now strongly Democratic, and the home state of Vice President Biden can be projected, as expected, to President Obama. However, Romney will be watching returns from this state, as they do have implications in places like the Philly suburbs and Northern Virginia.

The 10 electoral votes from Maryland can be projected for Obama as well. It's long been a Democratic stronghold, and will not disappoint for them tonight. However, its neighbor to the south, Virginia, is still too close to call, and may be the deciding state tonight. Also on the Potomac is the District of Columbia, which will also go to Obama in the least surprising result of the night. He received over 90% of the vote in the city in 2008.

Ed Schultz: Romney's first 8:00 victory is in Tennessee. Once a swing state, it, like the rest of the South, has trended Republican and shows no signs of turning back.

The state of Oklahoma will also, as expected, be in the Romney column tonight. It's heavily Republican, and Obama lost here 2 to 1 in 2008. Romney should hope for a similar or better result there tonight.

Of the states where polls closed at eight, Pennsylvania and Missouri are considered too close to call. Alabama and Mississippi, which are strongly Republican but report results slowly, are too early to call. Let's go over to Chuck for some analysis.

[Senator Snowstalker]

Chuck Todd: Let's take a look at Pennsylvania, a state which at this hour is too close to call, and was considered a battleground, albeit one with a Democratic lean. However, even if the Keystone State favors Obama, a good performance by Romney in the state probably indicates that he's doing well in the critical state of Ohio. Exit polls have already been released, and the two categories I'll be looking at are whites making under $50,000 a year and whites making over $50,000 a year. That first group is what we know as the white working class--traditionally a Democratic group, but one which has leaned Republican in recent years.

In 2008, McCain won white working-class voters by a 50-49 margin, statistically insignificant. Since Romney is doing better nationally, he has improved with them, but just barely--51% to 47%. The Obama camp has made Romney's record at Bain Capital a major theme, as well as the success of the auto bailouts. Although white working-class voters aren't keen on either candidate, Obama has seemingly avoided massive bleeding with that group. Whites making over $50K a year voted for Romney by a slightly bigger margin of 53% to Obama's 46%. Romney hoped for big improvements with somewhat more affluent suburban whites, and he has gotten it to some extent. However, whether that's enough to give him victory in other swing states remains to be seen.

[Comrade Shmoo]

the two categories I'll be looking at are whites making over $50,000 a year and whites making over $50,000 a year.

Is he being witty or is that a typo?

But anyway, this is great.

[GLPman]

Good so far. Is this going to continue beyond election day?

[Senator Snowstalker]

Typo, and fixed.

And this will go until the 2020 election, hence the title.

[Senator Snowstalker]

Rachel Maddow: Here to discuss current returns is Congresswoman and DNC chair, Mrs. Debbie Wassermann-Schultz.

DWS: Thanks Rachel.

Rachel Maddow: We're just beginning to see returns trickle in from key battlegrounds. But from what we know, with Obama and Romney in a dead heat in the electoral college, how are you feeling tonight.

DWS: Well, it's not time to celebrate yet. But I think that, given the good numbers in states like Pennsylvania, and the fact that Georgia took nearly an hour to call for Romney, the president should have the upper hand.

Rachel Maddow: As always, a key battleground here is Florida, your home state. Based on your ground knowledge, how is Obama faring there?

DWS: It's very tight in Florida, just as it is in Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and so on. I did cast my ballot for Obama, and I think he can win a narrow victory in the state. But even if Romney does win Florida, he still can't win without taking nearly all the other swing states on the board. So Romney winning here isn't the end.

[Lieutenant Governor Clinton1996]

Are you gonna do Senate election coverage at the end?

[Senator Snowstalker]

Yes; that will be in the wrap-up post after Election Night.

[Spamage]

Great timeline!

[MilesC56]

Very good!

[Senator Snowstalker]

Chris Matthews: It is 9:00 at the hour. All states east of the Mississippi River are closed for voting, and we're slowly moving west. Starting on the East Coast, we can project that President Obama will take the state of New York. No surprise; it's solidly Democratic and hasn't been won by a Republican since Reagan's 1984 landslide. Rhode Island is the other remaining Eastern Seaboard state, and it too will go for the President tonight. Finally, Minnesota, the state with the longest streak of voting Democratic--not since 1972 has it gone Republican--will continue that streak this year. The Romney campaign seemingly ignored this state, where Republicans are faring very poorly at a state and local level.

But the big electoral gains as of right now are going to Romney. He's projected to win a ring of 6 states going right through the middle of the country. First up is Texas. Democrats hoped it could be competitive in the future due to growth of the Hispanic population; not so, as Romney wins by a 15-point margin based on exit polling. Kansas, another solidly red state, will also go to him. Of Nebraska's 5 electoral votes, 4 can be projected to Romney. Nebraska, like Maine, splits its electoral votes, and one of these is too close to call. Speaking of Maine, the Maine 2nd can be projected to be won by President Obama. South Dakota, home of vice presidential nominee John Thune, is also in the Romney column, as is its neighbor North Dakota. Finally, Wyoming, the most Republican state from 2008, can be projected for Governor Romney.



Obama: 122
Romney: 139

[GPORTER]

A classic competetive presidential election result

[Senator Snowstalker]

It's relatively conventional so far. I intend to make 2016 a bit more interesting.

[Senator Snowstalker]

Chris Matthews: In 17 minutes, polls will be closing in several states in the West, including in the key battlegrounds of Iowa and Nevada. However, we can project results from two important states, both in the Northeast. Pennsylvania, often considered fool's gold for the Republicans, has gone to President Obama. McCain fell into the trap of focusing on this state instead of Ohio and Virginia, but Romney had pulled out of here almost entirely by mid-October. But in an upset tonight, Mitt Romney will carry the state of New Hampshire. This was his first victory in the primaries, and though in the Democratic stronghold region of New England, is notably fiscally conservative.



Rachel Maddow: Romney is still ahead in the electoral count, but remember that 11:00, the heavily Democratic West Coast will begin to report. If you live in California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Alaska, or Hawaii, and have yet to vote, please do so.

Obama: 138
Romney: 157

[Vosem]

Considering you're writing this, Stalky, I imagine Obama will win in the end -- but a Romney Administration, written from a realistic-but-left-wing point-of-view would be very interesting to read.

[Senator Snowstalker]

All I can confirm is that there will be a Republican administration in this timeline. Possibly more than one.