Suprassing 300 electoral votes?

[muon2]

If I extend the theme of my maps I can create a table showing the base EV at each level of likelihood. For example the 95% likely map from 538 gives Obama 149 and Romney 152. Here's how that changes with likelihood:

	Obama	Romney
95%	149	152
90%	207	155
85%	210	166
80%	237	181
75%	247	191
70%	251	206
65%	257	206
60%	276	235
55%	285	235
50%	303	235

Clearly Obama has a lot more EV leaning his way than Romney does. Even so, Obama only breaks 300 EV when all states are allocated (ie 50%). Romney needs to get the states that are less than 80% likely for Obama to break 300.

[pbrower2a]

With the probable exception of Washington, Obama won't win any states won by William Jennings Bryan in 1896:

More likely than not he wins Washington, that one CA vote, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia, and plausibly Florida and North Carolina as well. In a wave for him he'd also get Montana, Missouri, and NE-02.

In a wave he would also hold Indiana, pick up Arizona and Georgia, and be on the margin of   picking off NE-01, South Carolina, Texas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and maybe West Virginia. 

[WhyteRain]

With the probable exception of Washington, Obama won't win any states won by William Jennings Bryan in 1896:

Well, this likely will be a "wave election", I'll give you that.

More likely than not he wins Washington, that one CA vote, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia, and plausibly Florida and North Carolina as well. In a wave for him he'd also get Montana, Missouri, and NE-02.

In a wave he would also hold Indiana, pick up Arizona and Georgia, and be on the margin of   picking off NE-01, South Carolina, Texas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and maybe West Virginia. 

[Donerail]

With the probable exception of Washington, Obama won't win any states won by William Jennings Bryan in 1896:

More likely than not he wins Washington, that one CA vote, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia, and plausibly Florida and North Carolina as well. In a wave for him he'd also get Montana, Missouri, and NE-02.

In a wave he would also hold Indiana, pick up Arizona and Georgia, and be on the margin of   picking off NE-01, South Carolina, Texas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and maybe West Virginia. 

This was specifically about the WJB states; I can see IN or AZ, but none of the others.

[nkpatel1279]

Safe Obama-D (DC-3,HI-4,VT-3,RI-4,NY-29,MA-11,MD-10,IL-20,DE-3,CA-55,and CT-7)=149ev
Likely Obama-D (ME-4,WA-12,NJ-14,OR-7,MN-10,and NM-5)=201ev
Lean Obama-D (MI-16,PA-20,WI-10,and NV-6)=253ev
Tossup Obama-D (NH-4,IA-6,and CO-9)=272ev
No Clear Favorite-D (VA-13,OH-18,and FL-29)=332ev
Safe Romney-R (UT-6,WY-3,ID-4,OK-7,AL-9,AK-3,NE-5,KS-6,AR-6,LA-8,KY-8,TN-11,ND-3,SD-3,MS-6,WV-5,and TX-38)=131ev
Likely Romney-R (MT-3,SC-9,IN-11,GA-16,and AZ-11)=181ev
Lean Romney-R (NC-15,MO-10,and FL-29)=235ev
Tossup Romney-R (OH-18 and VA-13)=266ev
No Clear Favorite-R
IA-6,CO-9,and WI-10=291ev
Obama-D will win PA-20,MI-16,NV-6,and NH-4.
Another scenario
Obama-D wins PA-20,WI-10,CO-9,and IA-6=246ev
Romney-R wins MI-16,NV-6,and NH-4=292ev
Obama-D wins PA-20,CO-9,NV-6,and NH-4=240ev
Romney-R wins MI-16,WI-10,and IA-6=298ev
Obama-D will win PA-20,MI-16,WI-10,and NV-6=253ev
Obama-D is more likely to surpass 300ev by winning all of the Kerry States plus NM-5,NV-6,CO-9,IA-6,OH-18,and VA-13.=303ev
Best scenario of Romney-R is winning all of the McCain States(180ev) plus the Dole States-IN-11,NC-15,VA-13,and CO-9=228ev plus Bush43 States-FL-29,OH-18,and NV-6=281ev. Romney will lose PA-20,MI-16,and WI-10. Romney-R is also going to lose NH-4 and IA-6.

[nkpatel1279]

Obama-D.
There is a greater chance Obama-D will carry FL-29,OH-18,and VA-13=the must win Romney-R states than Romney-R will carry PA-20,MI-16,and WI-10=the must win Obama-D states.
Obama-D will carry some or all of the swing states like CO-9,IA-6,NV-6,and NH-4.
Battleground states like MN-10,NM-5,and OR-7 are strongly in the Obama-D collumn.
Traditional Republican States like MO-10 and NC-15 are likely to be in the Tossup column.
Republican leaning states like AZ-11,IN-11,and MT-3 are also battleground states.

[pikachu]

I'd say its not unlikely that an Obama victory would have over 300 electoral votes. If he can win OH, VA, IA, CO, NV, and NH, that puts him at 303, and all of those states either have a slight Democratic lean or are toss ups. For Romney, it seems less likely since he'd have to win a historically Democratic state like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.