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| | |-+  Suprassing 300 electoral votes?
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Author Topic: Suprassing 300 electoral votes?  (Read 2272 times)
Pope Kalwejt I of Northeast
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« on: June 15, 2012, 02:40:26 pm »
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No, I predict 2004-esque results, whether it's Obama win or Romney win. It won't be higher than 290 electoral votes.
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Snowstalker
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« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2012, 02:45:13 pm »
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Obama will have roughly 370-380 electoral votes. I will accept my accolades in November.
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IDS Emperor Maxwell
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« Reply #2 on: June 15, 2012, 02:46:33 pm »
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itll be shocking if that happens.
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emailking
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« Reply #3 on: June 15, 2012, 02:51:19 pm »
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Sure, anything's possible.
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opebo
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« Reply #4 on: June 15, 2012, 02:59:07 pm »
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I think it is possible:



But this is much more likely:

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SJoyce
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« Reply #5 on: June 15, 2012, 03:26:06 pm »
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and

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Citizen Alfred
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« Reply #6 on: June 15, 2012, 03:33:16 pm »
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There is a lot of humor to be mined from this as the mind of LBJ in the body of an 18 month old baby girl is quite hilarious.

Alfred is the Atlasian equivalent of a malevolent deity.

Pope Kalwejt I of Northeast
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« Reply #7 on: June 15, 2012, 04:26:22 pm »
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Even after what happened in 2010 (Republicans taking over the legislature, two House seats and retaining comfortably Senate seat, that was long considered to be a pickup for the Democrats), Obama is still leading in NH by double digits. It won't flip.
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WhyteRain
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« Reply #8 on: June 15, 2012, 04:41:01 pm »
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and



Very nice job!
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Nagas
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« Reply #9 on: June 15, 2012, 05:12:12 pm »
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Yeah, I think this is the most likely Obama map and it's 303 EVs. CO, OH, and VA will probably all be within 3 points though.
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WhyteRain
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« Reply #10 on: June 15, 2012, 05:40:56 pm »
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Yeah, I think this is the most likely Obama map and it's 303 EVs. CO, OH, and VA will probably all be within 3 points though.

Wait ... you think Obama will win with 303 EV  ... this year?  Win every state he won in 2008 except North Carolina?

If so, then you have more confidence than I do in the ability of the American academia and media to dumb down Americans to mindless drones.  (I know they're trying and that they will eventually succeed, I just disagree that they've succeeded already.)

[Modify:]  I'll bet Obama gets closer to 150 than 300 EVs.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2012, 05:43:02 pm by WhyteRain »Logged
Pope Kalwejt I of Northeast
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« Reply #11 on: June 15, 2012, 05:47:04 pm »
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Yeah, I think this is the most likely Obama map and it's 303 EVs. CO, OH, and VA will probably all be within 3 points though.

Wait ... you think Obama will win with 303 EV  ... this year?  Win every state he won in 2008 except North Carolina?

I think you're missing Indiana, my friend.
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Citizen Alfred
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« Reply #12 on: June 15, 2012, 06:12:11 pm »
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Yeah, I think this is the most likely Obama map and it's 303 EVs. CO, OH, and VA will probably all be within 3 points though.

Wait ... you think Obama will win with 303 EV  ... this year?  Win every state he won in 2008 except North Carolina?

I think you're missing Indiana, my friend.

And Florida.
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There is a lot of humor to be mined from this as the mind of LBJ in the body of an 18 month old baby girl is quite hilarious.

Alfred is the Atlasian equivalent of a malevolent deity.

Del Tachi
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« Reply #13 on: June 15, 2012, 06:58:34 pm »
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If anyone is getting over 300 EV, its Mitt Romney
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WhyteRain
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« Reply #14 on: June 15, 2012, 07:01:40 pm »
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Yeah, I think this is the most likely Obama map and it's 303 EVs. CO, OH, and VA will probably all be within 3 points though.

Wait ... you think Obama will win with 303 EV  ... this year?  Win every state he won in 2008 except North Carolina?

I think you're missing Indiana, my friend.

And Florida.

You're both right.  Mea culpa!
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ChanDan
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« Reply #15 on: June 15, 2012, 07:04:30 pm »
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I think it's more likely than not. I can easily see the election tipping that far in Obama or Romney's favor, and there are very reasonable looking maps on either side of that coin. I disagree with the notion that this election is inevitably going to be close; it could just as easily pull out in either direction. Most presidential elections aren't close. 2000 and 2004 were exceptions compared to most of the elections in the past 100 years.
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Odysseus
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« Reply #16 on: June 15, 2012, 08:02:08 pm »
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Yes. It's pretty likely, this is a very economics heavy election.



If the economy is reasonably good, Obama outspent Romney, and Romney didn't do so hot in the debates, Obama will probably take just about every swing state.



Obama: 368

However, if the economy is pretty bad or stagnant, Romney outspent Obama, and Romney had some good moments during the debates, Romney probably wins every swing state.



Romney: 322
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President von Cat
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« Reply #17 on: June 15, 2012, 09:54:54 pm »
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I don't think Romney is likely to win every swing state, unless the economy really falls off a cliff due to Europe. And the window for that is closing fast, given the ripple effect of a fall Europe collapse would take a quarter or so to really start impacting us here. I guess it would wreak havoc on the stock exchange though.

Anyhow, I see scenarios for Obama to just, and I mean just, break 300 EVs. But I see Romney capped in the 280s or low 290s. I think either campaign will have a tough time with it though.
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It makes me happy Republicans will never be able to say they defeated Obama. Never ever.
SJoyce
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« Reply #18 on: June 15, 2012, 11:39:49 pm »
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I can see Obama easily getting around 350 through just winning a few swing states (NC & FL stand out). As for Romney, can't see above around 290.
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muon2
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« Reply #19 on: June 15, 2012, 11:57:39 pm »
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Yes. It's pretty likely, this is a very economics heavy election.



If grey is a potential swing state, then you might note that 538 rates MN, NJ, CT as having a greater probability of going R than GA and SC have of going D.
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Odysseus
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« Reply #20 on: June 16, 2012, 02:39:57 am »
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Yes. It's pretty likely, this is a very economics heavy election.



If grey is a potential swing state, then you might note that 538 rates MN, NJ, CT as having a greater probability of going R than GA and SC have of going D.

Hmm, interesting. That was a really rough map made right off my gut feeling in like ten seconds, so a couple of the more distant swing states (WA, NM, GA, SC, etc) could be switched around a bit probably.

But CT? Dang, a Romney landslide map could look really ugly, not even bringing political opinions into it. =(
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WhyteRain
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« Reply #21 on: June 16, 2012, 07:44:22 am »
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With the probable exception of Washington, Obama won't win any states won by William Jennings Bryan in 1896:



The modern Democrat Party is the Gilded Age GOP (the party of "negro" rights and big business favoritism).  It's descended from the Federalist and Whig Parties -- look at the election maps of 1796 and 1812 for example.





The "Party of Jackson"?  That's a laugh.  Here's the 1828 election:

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muon2
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« Reply #22 on: June 16, 2012, 07:55:04 am »
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Yes. It's pretty likely, this is a very economics heavy election.



If grey is a potential swing state, then you might note that 538 rates MN, NJ, CT as having a greater probability of going R than GA and SC have of going D.

Hmm, interesting. That was a really rough map made right off my gut feeling in like ten seconds, so a couple of the more distant swing states (WA, NM, GA, SC, etc) could be switched around a bit probably.

But CT? Dang, a Romney landslide map could look really ugly, not even bringing political opinions into it. =(

If I use the current numbers from 538 and cut off at less than 90% sure the map looks like this:



If I cut off at less than 95% sure the map looks like this:


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anvi
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« Reply #23 on: June 16, 2012, 08:14:05 am »
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My rough guess is that Obama won't get less than 217, but I'm starting to think that, if he tops 270, somewhere around 285 will be his ceiling.
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SJoyce
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« Reply #24 on: June 16, 2012, 08:43:12 am »
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With the probable exception of Washington, Obama won't win any states won by William Jennings Bryan in 1896:



More likely than not he wins Washington, that one CA vote, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia, and plausibly Florida and North Carolina as well. In a wave for him he'd also get Montana, Missouri, and NE-02.
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