Governor "Power" Rankings

[morgieb]

Based on my Senate rankings. Here we go.....

Leans Pickup

1. North Carolina (D-Open [was Perdue]) - Dalton has some room to move, but McCrody just seems like the better candidate. Most polls show him a fair way ahead.

2. Montana (D-Open [was Schweitzer]) - coat-tails help Hill over Bullock, though it will remain competitive. I'd like to see polling here.

Toss-up

3. Washington (D-Open [was Gregorie]) - McKenna's a more appealing candidate, but Inslee could pick up momentum if he plays his card's right, particularly given this is a blue state.

4. New Hampshire (D-Open [was Lynch]) - too early to say, as none of the Dems have much name recognition, whereas Lamontgne does. However, I think Lamontgne might be too right-wing for New Hampshire. This race could still break one way or another, though.

Leans Retention

5. West Virginia (D-Tomblin) - while Tomblin has the advantage as he managed to beat Maloney last year, Obama could have negative coat-tails for Tomblin, and Maloney did come from behind last year.

Likely Retention

6. Missouri (D-Nixon) - Nixon is popular, whereas his opponents are little known. Only likely to go in a landslide victory for Romney, but the recent polls show it may get interesting.

7. Indiana (R-Open [was Daniels]) - Pence is just a better candidate than his opponent. Also, Indiana is likely to go R after voting Obama last time.

Safe Retention

8. North Dakota (R-Dalrymple) - Taylor needs a minor miracle to win here.

9. Vermont (D-Shumlin) - Brock needs a major miracle to win here.

10. Utah (R-Herbert) - Romney coat-tails will only help here.

11. Delaware (D-Markell) - running effectively unopposed.

And as a treat, the 2013 and 2014 races...

2013:

Toss-up

1. Virginia (R-Open [was McDonnell]) - political climate is too hard to tell this early out, but while the Republicans have more well-known candidates, might they be too conservative for Virginia?

Leans Retention

2. New Jersey (R-Christie) - either Booker needs to jump in, or the political climate needs to go negative towards the Republicans (i.e. if Romney wins) for this race to heat up. But it's too early to tell what will happen here.

2014:

Toss-up

1. Rhode Island (I-Chafee) - Chafee would have to hope for another three-way race to win here. This race smells quite a bit like Connecticut 1994 redux.

2. Florida (R-Scott) - this state leans R at the local level, but Scott is really unpopular here. This race will most likely end up as a Likely D by 2014.

3. Michigan (R-Snyder) - much the same as above. Except Snyder is slightly less unpopular here, and the Dems are stronger in Michigan than Florida.

4. Maine (R-LePage) - unless an independent spoils the race, LePage will probably end up toast.

5. Pennsylvania (R-Corbett) - see Michigan, though Pennsylvanian races tend to favour the party who doesn't control the White House.

6. Ohio (R-Kasich) - see Florida, although Kasich is in better shape than Scott.

7. Arkansas (D-Open [was Beebe]) - although Arkansas's bench is more Democratic than Republican, this state seems to be trending red severely.

8. Connecticut (D-Malloy) - Yes Connecticut is blue, but Malloy is really unpopular here. Also, I think Connecticut's probably better for Reps at the local level than at the federal level.

9. Illinois (D-Quinn) - ditto, though Illinois is more blue.

10. Hawaii (D-Abercrombie) - ditto. But are there any real candidates for the Republicans in Hawaii?

11. Texas (R-Perry) - in a normal year, Perry would be toast. In a mid-term, however, Texas is very red. A primary challenge could also shake things up.

12. Wisconsin (R-Walker) - recall election helps Walker significantly. Most likely Walker will get a bounce out of this, and a mid-term will probably have a similar amount of votes to the recall.

13. Iowa (R-Branstad) - Branstad isn't doing anywhere near as bad as most of his midwest colleges, plus he knows how to win elections. Unless Vilsack wants a comeback, he'll probably look safer.

Leans Retention

14. Arizona (R-Open [was Brewer]) - mid-terms will hurt the Dems here, though they're not without a hope.

15. Massachusetts (D-Open [was Patrick]) - depends on the Senate race. If Brown wins, it'll probably go to Likely/Safe D. However, Brown may choose to run for Governor if he loses.

16. South Carolina (R-Haley) - Haley has been controversial, but South Carolina isn't very helpful for the Dems at mid-terms.

Likely Retention

17. New Mexico (R-Martinez) - Martinez is too popular in New Mexico to be truly challenged, and her background will probably affect the fact that New Mexico is turning blue.

18. Nevada (R-Sandoval) - ditto. Except Sandoval is even more popular.

19. California (D-Brown) - it's feasible that the state might be so ed by 2014 that a Republican could sneak from behind to win due to the pure chaos.

20. Georgia (R-Deal) - Georgia's probably still a couple of elections away from being competitive in mid-terms.

21. Maryland (D-Open [was O'Malley]) - hard to rule out open seats entirely, though it's unlikely that they can win.

22. Kansas (R-Brownback) - only because one poll had him in a negative approval, but he should be OK and I feel that poll was an outlier.

23. Nebraska (R-Open [was Heinemann]) - see Maryland, plus the Reps will probably have a hand-picked candidate rather than a messy primary.

24. Oregon (D-Kitzhaber) - Oregon isn't very competitive for the Republicans after looking so at the turn of the century, but Kitzhaber isn't totally safe. Still, it's unlikely they can win here.

25. Minnesota (D-Dayton) - ditto. Plus, the Republican legislature is very unpopular in Minnesota.

Safe Retention

26. Colorado (D-Hickenlooper) - Hickenlooper's one of the most popular governor's in the country. The Republicans have better places to play attack.

27. South Dakota (R-Dauggard) - South Dakota is pretty red and it's unlikely they'll lose here.

28. Alabama (R-Bentley) - Alabama's very red, plus mid-terms aren't positive for Democrats.

29. Oklahoma (R-Fallin) - It's Oklahoma. Enough said.

30. Alaska (R-Parnell) - Alaska is very red and Parnell remains popular.

31. Tennessee (R-Haslam) - Haslam was +27 just after getting into office. His approvals have probably expanded as his name recognition has improved.

32. Wyoming (R-Mead) - Wyoming is just too red for a Dem to win here.

33. New York (D-Cuomo) - Cuomo's approvals are +50. He'll win in a landslide.

[they don't love you like i love you]

25. Minnesota (D-Dayton) - ditto. Plus, the Republican legislature is very unpopular in Minnesota.

True, but they won't be in power anymore in 2014. Though the Republican bench is still quite weak.

[tpfkaw]

No state can be considered safe 2 years in advance; certainly not a state like Colorado, no matter how popular its governor is at present.

[hopper]

Based on my Senate rankings. Here we go.....

Leans Pickup

1. North Carolina (D-Open [was Perdue]) - Dalton has some room to move, but McCrody just seems like the better candidate. Most polls show him a fair way ahead.

2. Montana (D-Open [was Schweitzer]) - coat-tails help Hill over Bullock, though it will remain competitive. I'd like to see polling here.

Toss-up

3. Washington (D-Open [was Gregorie]) - McKenna's a more appealing candidate, but Inslee could pick up momentum if he plays his card's right, particularly given this is a blue state.

4. New Hampshire (D-Open [was Lynch]) - too early to say, as none of the Dems have much name recognition, whereas Lamontgne does. However, I think Lamontgne might be too right-wing for New Hampshire. This race could still break one way or another, though.

Leans Retention

5. West Virginia (D-Tomblin) - while Tomblin has the advantage as he managed to beat Maloney last year, Obama could have negative coat-tails for Tomblin, and Maloney did come from behind last year.

Likely Retention

6. Missouri (D-Nixon) - Nixon is popular, whereas his opponents are little known. Only likely to go in a landslide victory for Romney, but the recent polls show it may get interesting.

7. Indiana (R-Open [was Daniels]) - Pence is just a better candidate than his opponent. Also, Indiana is likely to go R after voting Obama last time.

Safe Retention

8. North Dakota (R-Dalrymple) - Taylor needs a minor miracle to win here.

9. Vermont (D-Shumlin) - Brock needs a major miracle to win here.

10. Utah (R-Herbert) - Romney coat-tails will only help here.

11. Delaware (D-Markell) - running effectively unopposed.

And as a treat, the 2013 and 2014 races...

2013:

Toss-up

1. Virginia (R-Open [was McDonnell]) - political climate is too hard to tell this early out, but while the Republicans have more well-known candidates, might they be too conservative for Virginia?

Leans Retention

2. New Jersey (R-Christie) - either Booker needs to jump in, or the political climate needs to go negative towards the Republicans (i.e. if Romney wins) for this race to heat up. But it's too early to tell what will happen here.

2014:

Toss-up

1. Rhode Island (I-Chafee) - Chafee would have to hope for another three-way race to win here. This race smells quite a bit like Connecticut 1994 redux.

2. Florida (R-Scott) - this state leans R at the local level, but Scott is really unpopular here. This race will most likely end up as a Likely D by 2014.

3. Michigan (R-Snyder) - much the same as above. Except Snyder is slightly less unpopular here, and the Dems are stronger in Michigan than Florida.

4. Maine (R-LePage) - unless an independent spoils the race, LePage will probably end up toast.

5. Pennsylvania (R-Corbett) - see Michigan, though Pennsylvanian races tend to favour the party who doesn't control the White House.

6. Ohio (R-Kasich) - see Florida, although Kasich is in better shape than Scott.

7. Arkansas (D-Open [was Beebe]) - although Arkansas's bench is more Democratic than Republican, this state seems to be trending red severely.

8. Connecticut (D-Malloy) - Yes Connecticut is blue, but Malloy is really unpopular here. Also, I think Connecticut's probably better for Reps at the local level than at the federal level.
9. Illinois (D-Quinn) - ditto, though Illinois is more blue.

10. Hawaii (D-Abercrombie) - ditto. But are there any real candidates for the Republicans in Hawaii?

11. Texas (R-Perry) - in a normal year, Perry would be toast. In a mid-term, however, Texas is very red. A primary challenge could also shake things up.

12. Wisconsin (R-Walker) - recall election helps Walker significantly. Most likely Walker will get a bounce out of this, and a mid-term will probably have a similar amount of votes to the recall.

13. Iowa (R-Branstad) - Branstad isn't doing anywhere near as bad as most of his midwest colleges, plus he knows how to win elections. Unless Vilsack wants a comeback, he'll probably look safer.

Leans Retention

14. Arizona (R-Open [was Brewer]) - mid-terms will hurt the Dems here, though they're not without a hope.

15. Massachusetts (D-Open [was Patrick]) - depends on the Senate race. If Brown wins, it'll probably go to Likely/Safe D. However, Brown may choose to run for Governor if he loses.

16. South Carolina (R-Haley) - Haley has been controversial, but South Carolina isn't very helpful for the Dems at mid-terms.

Likely Retention

17. New Mexico (R-Martinez) - Martinez is too popular in New Mexico to be truly challenged, and her background will probably affect the fact that New Mexico is turning blue.

18. Nevada (R-Sandoval) - ditto. Except Sandoval is even more popular.

19. California (D-Brown) - it's feasible that the state might be so ed by 2014 that a Republican could sneak from behind to win due to the pure chaos.

20. Georgia (R-Deal) - Georgia's probably still a couple of elections away from being competitive in mid-terms.

21. Maryland (D-Open [was O'Malley]) - hard to rule out open seats entirely, though it's unlikely that they can win.

22. Kansas (R-Brownback) - only because one poll had him in a negative approval, but he should be OK and I feel that poll was an outlier.

23. Nebraska (R-Open [was Heinemann]) - see Maryland, plus the Reps will probably have a hand-picked candidate rather than a messy primary.

24. Oregon (D-Kitzhaber) - Oregon isn't very competitive for the Republicans after looking so at the turn of the century, but Kitzhaber isn't totally safe. Still, it's unlikely they can win here.

25. Minnesota (D-Dayton) - ditto. Plus, the Republican legislature is very unpopular in Minnesota.

Safe Retention

26. Colorado (D-Hickenlooper) - Hickenlooper's one of the most popular governor's in the country. The Republicans have better places to play attack.

27. South Dakota (R-Dauggard) - South Dakota is pretty red and it's unlikely they'll lose here.

28. Alabama (R-Bentley) - Alabama's very red, plus mid-terms aren't positive for Democrats.

29. Oklahoma (R-Fallin) - It's Oklahoma. Enough said.

30. Alaska (R-Parnell) - Alaska is very red and Parnell remains popular.

31. Tennessee (R-Haslam) - Haslam was +27 just after getting into office. His approvals have probably expanded as his name recognition has improved.

32. Wyoming (R-Mead) - Wyoming is just too red for a Dem to win here.

33. New York (D-Cuomo) - Cuomo's approvals are +50. He'll win in a landslide.

CT usually goes for Moderate or Liberal Republicans for Governor at least they did from 1994-2006(The Rell/Roland era.) I don't know maybe Tom Foley can win a rematch with Malloy. The 2010 Race was close between the 2.

On Arkansas its been a weird state that has been kind of middle of the road politically for a number of years. It has gone severly R at the Presidential level in the last 12 years but at the state level not so much. I think Mike Ross will be tough for the Republicans to beat in 2014.

[greenforest32]

2014:

Toss-up

1. Rhode Island (I-Chafee) - Chafee would have to hope for another three-way race to win here. This race smells quite a bit like Connecticut 1994 redux.

I wonder if 2014 will be another four-way. I heard (some?) Democrats were trying to get Chafee to switch from being an independent.

http://blogs.wpri.com/2011/11/29/democratic-governors-chief-woos-chafee-to-join-their-ranks/

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[morgieb]

Alabama: No reason to believe that Bentley's in trouble (although he may in the primary), Alabama doesn't appear to be trending Democratic like other parts of the Deep South, in any case Alabama's too inelastic for it to flip. Safe R.

Alaska: No reason to believe that Parnell's in trouble, unless he wants a promotion. Safe R with Parnell, Likely/Safe R otherwise.

Arizona: Brewer is term-limited, with Bennett likely to replace her. Although the Arizonan Republican party has been caught in race controversies, it's still too early to consider this a swing state. Lean R.

Arkansas: Beebe is term-limited, and the state is only getting redder although the Democrats still have a bench here. This (and the Senate race) will be a good test of whether Blue Dogs are still welcome in Arkansas. Toss-up.

California: Despite the economic basket case that is California, the Republican bench here is extremely weak, making any Democrat the favourite. Likely D.

Colorado: Hickenlooper is very popular in Colorado and the state is only getting bluer. He is unlikely to get a serious challenge this time around. Likely/Safe D.

Connecticut: Malloy has rebounded somewhat in approvals, and Connecticut remains rather blue. Lean D.

Florida: One of the marquee match-up's of 2014. While Scott's approvals are poor, the Democrat's bench in Florida is notoriously weak. Although relative no-names are beating him in the polls, he still has a lot of money and a divided primary could give him an edge here. Toss-up.

Georgia: Hard to make a judgement here, as Deal approval's aren't great and he is corrupt. However while Georgia looks like it's getting bluer, it's hard for Team D to win a mid-term here. Lean/Likely R.

Hawaii: Apparently Abercrombie's approvals are awful, but they may have rebounded in the meantime. Plus there's very little of a bench for Hawaiian Republicans. Lean/Likely D with Abercrombie, Safe D otherwise.

Idaho: Arguably the safest seat this election. Safe R.

Illinois: Quinn is very unpopular, and there are Republicans that can definitely beat him, unlike Hawaii or California. He may not run again though as he's likely to lose, in which case the seat goes back to it's Dem-leaning status. Lean R if Quinn runs, Lean/Likely D otherwise.

Iowa: Branstad isn't the 80 pound gorilla he may have been, but he starts in good steed for 2014 assuming he runs again. Otherwise. Lean R with Branstad, Toss-up otherwise.

Kansas: Apparently Brownback's approvals are very weak, but this is Kansas. Lean/Likely R with Brownback, Safe R otherwise.

Maine: I cannot get a real feel for this race. LePage isn't a great fit for Maine and Culter is likely to run again, but a three-way race could challenge the status quo here. Toss-up.

Maryland: O'Malley may be term-limited, but Republicans don't really have a bench here. Likely/Safe D.

Massachusetts: This depends on what Brown and Kerry does. If Kerry becomes SOS, it's likely Brown will be in the Senate or be too damaged goods. Otherwise, he may run for here. Other than that though, it's too blue for the Republicans to challenge here. Tilt R if Brown runs, Likely/Safe D otherwise.

Michigan: It's hard to tell here. Synder might not run again, and his approvals have been fluctuating. On the other hand, Michigan Democrats have a surprisingly weak bench. Tilt R if Synder runs, Toss-up otherwise.

Minnesota: Dayton is quite popular, and the Minnesota Republican brand feels like damaged goods. Likely/Safe D.

Nebraska: The Democrats don't have a bench here, and Heinemann has already anointed a successor. Safe R.

Nevada: Sandoval is very popular in Nevada, despite it's blue lean recently. Likely/Safe R.

New Hampshire: Hassan just won here, so while she may face a stronger opponent than Lamontgne and won't run in a Presidential year, she probably has the edge right now. Lean D.

New Mexico: Martinez is very popular in Nevada, despite the fact that it's pretty blue now. Likely R.

New York: The only question is how much money Cuomo raises for his likely Presidential run. Safe D.

Ohio: Although Kasich's approvals have rebounded, he still does not appear completely safe. Assuming that he faces off Cordray or Strickland, it would be one of the marquee races of 2014. Toss-up.

Oklahoma: Although there are candidates that could be competitive in the right circumstances (Boren, Edmondson), those probably aren't in 2014. Likely/Safe R.

Oregon: Kitzhaber isn't super popular, but he probably is in good steed for 2014. Likely D.

Pennsylvania: Corbett is probably target #1 for the Democrats for 2014. He isn't popular at all and the state generally leans Democratic. Tilt D.

Rhode Island: Anything could happen here. A potential three-way race with an unpopular incumbent who may end up joining the Democrats or the Democrats get a 'real' Democrat. Toss-up.

South Carolina: There has been scandals here for Haley, she's not super popular and she didn't win by much in 2010. Yet South Carolina remains very red. Lean/Likely R with Haley, Likely R otherwise.

South Dakota: Dauggard should be safe here. Safe R.

Tennessee: Haslam should be safe here. Safe R.

Texas: Perry is a bit of a joke right now and indeed is very likely to be challenged. But can Texas vote for a Democrat? Lean R.

Vermont: Shumlin is a bit of an underachiever, but Vermont is far too blue for him to lose. Safe D.

Wisconsin: The recall gives Walker breathing space for 2014. It is unclear whether he'll be challenged seriously, despite how polarising he is. Lean R.

Wyoming: Arguably the safest race in 2014. Safe R.

[RogueBeaver]

Largely agreed except for Illinois. Quinn has already said he's running again, though Madigan and Bill Daley have not ruled out challenging him in the primary. Likelier that Madigan does than Daley. Either way, probably Lean R depending on who the GOP nominates.

[tmthforu94]

Largely agreed except for Illinois. Quinn has already said he's running again, though Madigan and Bill Daley have not ruled out challenging him in the primary. Likelier that Madigan does than Daley. Either way, probably Lean R depending on who the GOP nominates.

Agreed - Quinn would probably be able to hang on in a primary anyways, though it could potentially end up close. We may be looking at a Governor Schock come 2015. Lucky for him - I thought he would be stuck in Congress forever since he's probably too conservative to snag a Senate seat and hold it.

[morgieb]

Largely agreed except for Illinois. Quinn has already said he's running again, though Madigan and Bill Daley have not ruled out challenging him in the primary. Likelier that Madigan does than Daley. Either way, probably Lean R depending on who the GOP nominates.

Agreed - Quinn would probably be able to hang on in a primary anyways, though it could potentially end up close. We may be looking at a Governor Schock come 2015. Lucky for him - I thought he would be stuck in Congress forever since he's probably too conservative to snag a Senate seat and hold it.

Might his sexuality harm him though?

[Franzl]

There are no lean R elections in Illinois. You can get lucky in a wave year like 2010, but under normal circumstances...

[limac333]

There are no lean R elections in Illinois. You can get lucky in a wave year like 2010, but under normal circumstances...

A Republican can easily get elected Governor in Illinois. All of our Governor elections are in midterm years, and we have a history of electing Republican Governors.

Quinn got lucky in 2010. He may win the primary (especially if Madigan doesn't run) but I don't see him winning a general election against a better opponent than Bill Brady.