Who are some semi-plausible 2014 gubernatorial candidates who could win?

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Any revised thoughts on this, now that the 2012 election has passed?

[limac333]

*bump*

Any revised thoughts on this, now that the 2012 election has passed?

Kirk Dillard announced he is running for Governor of Illinois, and Governor Quinn stated that he is running for re-election.

[Vosem]

Alabama: Robert Bentley will be seeking reelection. The Democrats will not be seriously contesting Alabama, but apparently Bentley may be challenged in the Republican primary (which is tantamount to election); Bradley Byrne, who came in 2nd in 2010, and Tim James, who was 3rd, are both 'considering' challenging Bentley.

Alaska: Governor Parnell may seek reelection, but there are rumors he will instead challenge Begich for the state's Senate seat. In that case, the state's Lt. Gov., who's name is escaping me at the moment, and Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan become the frontrunners for the Republican nomination, which is likely to amount to election in red Alaska.

Arizona: Jan Brewer will be term-limited. The likeliest Republican candidate seems to be Lt. Gov./Secretary of State (the offices are the same thing in Arizona) Ken Bennett, while the likeliest Democrat seems to be the Mayor of Tempe, Neil Giuliano. Bennett would start off as the favorite.

Arkansas: Mike Beebe will be term-limited. The two main Democratic candidates are former Lt. Gov. Bill Halter and Attorney General Dustin McDaniel (Senator Pryor can have this if he feels it'd be easier than the Senate, as well). Rep. Tim Griffin is considered the Republican rising star in Arkansas, but he's considered likelier to run for the Senate, with Lt. Gov. Mark Darr as a prominent possibility for Governor.

California: The Republican bench in California sucks so badly that even the California Democrats are favored to win this election. Brown probably gets the nomination if he wants it, but he's not exactly young, so he may not. Of the other Democrats, famously eloquent Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom really, really wants it, so he'll probably go for it. The Republicans will have a hyped nominee who will lose, most likely.

Colorado: Hickenlooper is really popular, polls show him ahead by a lot and over 50, and it's doubtful he'll be seriously challenged.

Connecticut: Dan Malloy will be challenged in 2014 by businessman Tom Foley, who he barely defeated in 2010. Malloy, in spite of being not being very popular, begins as a slight favorite because Connecticut is still very deep blue. Hopefully Republicans will be able to restore the death penalty here.

Florida: Rick Scott will be seeking reelection. He is personally unpopular, but he is very rich and the Democratic bench in Florida is weak and divided. State Senate Minority Leader Nan Rich has already announced she will be running against Scott; polling has shown her beating him but not by very much. The two most prominent Democratic possibilities here are former CFO Alex Sink and ex-Governor Charlie Crist. The Mayor of Orlando, Buddy Dyer, could also run. Sink starts off lagging against any of the Democratic candidates but he is not to be underestimated.

Georgia: Governor Deal is probably planning to seek reelection. Perhaps a Democrat will challenge him, perhaps he will be challenged in the primary. Or perhaps not. This race has really, really yet to take shape.

Hawaii: Governor Abercrombie is despised. He is a top candidate for least popular Governor in the country. However, Hawaii Republicans are not a strong bunch. Rumor is is that ex-Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona, who lost in 2010, may try again in 2014. No polling has been conducted. This one could be a sleeper no one's talking about, because Abercrombie is hated.

Idaho: Governor Otter will be reelected. Basically a certainty.

Illinois: Pat Quinn just barely won against a downstate conservative Republican in 2010 and he's only gotten less popular since. He may be challenged in the primary -- Clinton/Obama administrations figure William Daley seems to be the likeliest candidate -- but whether or not that will work out for the Democrats remains to be seen. The Republican field is no less murky. State Senator Kirk Dillard, who lost the gubernatorial primary in 2010 by just a few hundred votes (and would almost certainly have been elected had he won), really really really wants to be Governor and in fact has already declared his campaign. State Treasurer Dan Rutherford, however, also wants to be Governor pretty badly. U.S. Representative Aaron Schock doesn't want to be Governor quite as badly, but he still feels a promotion like that would be nice. If Durbin retires, some of these candidates may migrate to the Senate race, depending on polling numbers. Democrats shouldn't be fooled by Illinois's safe-Democratic presidential status -- the state GOP is very alive and is perfectly capable of winning statewide races when it has good candidates.

Iowa: Governor Branstad may seek reelection in 2014, but he would be quite vulnerable if he did so. Polling has shown him mired in low single digits, leading U.S. Representative Bruce Braley (who is probably more interested in Harkin's Senate seat) and ex-Governor Chet Culver (who may be interested in a rematch) very narrowly, Culver within the margin of error, and losing to current U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, though again within the margin of error. Vilsack may be favored outright against Branstad should he choose to run.

Kansas: Governor Brownback seems pretty safe.

Maine: Should independent Eliot Cutler run again, polling indicates he would lead Governor lePage in the low single digits. Rumor is Cutler's running again.

Maryland: Martin O'Malley is term-limited. The Republicans won't win here. There is a large Democratic field, but the frontrunner to succeed O'Malley is Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown.

Massachusetts: Deval Patrick is term-limited. There is a large Democratic field, in which the most prominent candidate is state Attorney General Martha Coakley, who was defeated in a Senate bid in 2010. The only strong Republican possibility is former U.S. Senator Scott Brown, who might be mildly favored. Otherwise it's a safe Dem seat.

Michigan: It's actually pretty unclear whether or not Snyder will seek reelection. The Democratic bench here is absolutely screwed to all hell. A Michigan poster earlier in this thread says that most likely Snyder won't seek reelection and the new Republican nominee will be state Attorney General Bill Schuette, who will then likely win. (Fun fact: Schuette actually served in the House, 1985-1991, before seeking election to the Senate in 1990 and being defeated. He then served in the Michigan state Senate and on the Michigan Supreme Court before becoming AG in 2010; he's either served in or ran for a large variety of offices in Michigan). In the absence of any better theory, I guess we can go with that.

Minnesota: Governor Dayton is likely to run for reelection. He is fairly popular, so he may receive only a middling challenger of some sort.

[Vosem]

Nebraska: Heineman is term-limited. He will be succeeded by Republican Lt. Gov., Rick Sheehy.

Nevada: Governor Sandoval will be seeking reelection. He is very, very popular; polling has shown him over 50 and leading by double-digits some of the state's most prominent Democrats, state Secretary of State Ross Miller and Attorney General Catherine Masto. I doubt he will be seriously challenged.

New Hampshire: New Hampshire has a very large, very deep Republican bench that I'm sure would just love to challenge Governor Hassan. There's a very big list on Wikipedia's page of Republicans that declined to run for in 2012 -- look at it. Some of them may be attracted to the Senate race, though.

New Mexico: Governor Martinez is very popular. State Attorney General Gary King has already announced he will be challenging her, but polling has shown her above 50 and leading King by double-digits. State Auditor Hector Balderas, who lost the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in 2012, is also considered a potential candidate, but polling shows he would do even worse than King.

New York: Cuomo is safe and won't have any trouble.

Ohio: Polling has shown Governor Kasich mired in the low 40s. He leads ex-Governor Ted Strickland and ex-Attorney General Richard Cordray, both within the margin of error, and some other candidates, including Columbus Mayor Mike Coleman, U.S. Representative Tim Ryan, and former U.S. Representative Dennis Kucinich, outside the margin of error but by unimpressive margins. Cordray will run against Kasich and starts perhaps mildly favored.

Oklahoma: Can't think of any reason Fallin wouldn't be reelected.

Oregon: Polling has shown Governor Kitzhaber mired in the low 40s, leading U.S. Representative Greg Walden within the margin of error, but other candidates by rather more. Kitzhaber is vulnerable, but he may be saved by the fact that Merkley seems to be a more attractive target. Considering how neither Kitzhaber nor Merkley seems to be very well-liked, Oregon could be a state that would be responsive to a Republican wave. (I've noted, many times, that I am bullish on Republican chances of beating Merkley in 2014).

Pennsylvania: Phil has raised the possibility of Governor Corbett not seeking reelection in another thread, so I guess that's a possibility. Not certain who Republicans might run to replace him -- Gerlach comes to mind since he was so eager to run statewide in 2010. The Democratic frontrunner here seems to be ex-U.S. Representative Joe Sestak, though it's important to keep in mind U.S. Senator Bob Casey, Jr., really really wants to be Governor and may run if he sees an opening.

Rhode Island: Governor Chafee is not very well-liked. By anyone. At all. State Auditor Ernest Almonte has already declared his candidacy for Governor, and there are many other interested Democrats. Considering how close he came to an upset in 2010, Republicans are hoping John Robitaille agrees to run again. This could end up being a competitive three-way race, or safe for any of the three parties; we'll see what polling shows.

South Carolina: Governor Haley is not very popular, and apparently she may be challenged in the primary by a multitude of candidates, of whom the likeliest is state Treasurer Curtis Loftis. No polling has been conducted here, so it's largely guesswork, though we know that 2010 Democratic candidate Vincent Sheheen is planning a second run for the Governor's Mansion, and considering how close he came in '10 and how the Republicans in South Carolina seem unable to get along, he could very well win.

South Dakota: No reason for Daugaard to lose.

Tennessee: On that note, no reason for Haslam to lose, either.

Texas: Rick Perry will have been Governor for 14 years by the time of this election; the longest-serving in the entire country. It is common knowledge across the state that Attorney General Greg Abbott plans to challenge Perry, who is not very popular, in the primary, but Perry starts as a favorite. Democrats have hyped San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro for a gubernatorial bid, but it probably won't happen in '14, and if it does it won't be successful.

Vermont: After just barely winning in 2010 and just barely surviving a bear encounter in 2011, Governor Shumlin has decided to try and implement a single-payer system for Vermont. Unfortunately, Vermont is the sort of state where that would be fairly popular, so Shumlin is safe for reelection. A shame; he's probably the incumbent whose defeat I'd most enjoy in 2014.

Wisconsin: After all the hullaballoo with the recalls, Democrats actually seem quite uninterested in challenging Walker. There is no obvious Democratic frontrunner and there has been little speculation surrounding this race. Of the midwestern GOP governors, Walker could be the most highly favored, which is kind of ironic considering what a polarizing figure he is.

Wyoming: No reason for Mead not to be reelected...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The Castro brother who's Mayor of San Antonio is Julian. Joaquin is the Congressman-elect.

Shumlin is thankfully one of the safest Democratic governors in the country, along with Hickenlooper.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

The death penalty is going to be hard to reinstate here with the current legislature, which I don't see changing any time soon.

[Zioneer]

Why exactly is Abercrombie hated in Hawaii?

And I'm thankful that Shumlin is one of the safest governors in the country; we need Vermont to act as a laboratory to show the rest of the country that single-payer healthcare actually does work.

[Vosem]

The Castro brother who's Mayor of San Antonio is Julian. Joaquin is the Congressman-elect.

Thank you for pointing that one out; my mistake.

Shumlin is thankfully one of the safest Democratic governors in the country

I know...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Shumlin is thankfully one of the safest Democratic governors in the country

I know...

If it makes you feel any better, he does tend to noticeably underperform other Vermont Democrats, just not by enough for anyone to win against him.

Why do you support the death penalty? I wouldn't have expected that from you.

[BM]

I'm also curious about why Abercrombie is so hated.