Based on my Senate rankings. Here we go.....
Leans Pickup
1. North Carolina (D-Open [was Perdue]) - Dalton has some room to move, but McCrody just seems like the better candidate. Most polls show him a fair way ahead.
2. Montana (D-Open [was Schweitzer]) - coat-tails help Hill over Bullock, though it will remain competitive. I'd like to see polling here.
Toss-up
3. Washington (D-Open [was Gregorie]) - McKenna's a more appealing candidate, but Inslee could pick up momentum if he plays his card's right, particularly given this is a blue state.
4. New Hampshire (D-Open [was Lynch]) - too early to say, as none of the Dems have much name recognition, whereas Lamontgne does. However, I think Lamontgne might be too right-wing for New Hampshire. This race could still break one way or another, though.
Leans Retention
5. West Virginia (D-Tomblin) - while Tomblin has the advantage as he managed to beat Maloney last year, Obama could have negative coat-tails for Tomblin, and Maloney did come from behind last year.
Likely Retention
6. Missouri (D-Nixon) - Nixon is popular, whereas his opponents are little known. Only likely to go in a landslide victory for Romney, but the recent polls show it may get interesting.
7. Indiana (R-Open [was Daniels]) - Pence is just a better candidate than his opponent. Also, Indiana is likely to go R after voting Obama last time.
Safe Retention
8. North Dakota (R-Dalrymple) - Taylor needs a minor miracle to win here.
9. Vermont (D-Shumlin) - Brock needs a major miracle to win here.
10. Utah (R-Herbert) - Romney coat-tails will only help here.
11. Delaware (D-Markell) - running effectively unopposed.
And as a treat, the 2013 and 2014 races...
2013:
Toss-up
1. Virginia (R-Open [was McDonnell]) - political climate is too hard to tell this early out, but while the Republicans have more well-known candidates, might they be too conservative for Virginia?
Leans Retention
2. New Jersey (R-Christie) - either Booker needs to jump in, or the political climate needs to go negative towards the Republicans (i.e. if Romney wins) for this race to heat up. But it's too early to tell what will happen here.
2014:
Toss-up
1. Rhode Island (I-Chafee) - Chafee would have to hope for another three-way race to win here. This race smells quite a bit like Connecticut 1994 redux.
2. Florida (R-Scott) - this state leans R at the local level, but Scott is really unpopular here. This race will most likely end up as a Likely D by 2014.
3. Michigan (R-Snyder) - much the same as above. Except Snyder is slightly less unpopular here, and the Dems are stronger in Michigan than Florida.
4. Maine (R-LePage) - unless an independent spoils the race, LePage will probably end up toast.
5. Pennsylvania (R-Corbett) - see Michigan, though Pennsylvanian races tend to favour the party who doesn't control the White House.
6. Ohio (R-Kasich) - see Florida, although Kasich is in better shape than Scott.
7. Arkansas (D-Open [was Beebe]) - although Arkansas's bench is more Democratic than Republican, this state seems to be trending red severely.
8. Connecticut (D-Malloy) - Yes Connecticut is blue, but Malloy is really unpopular here. Also, I think Connecticut's probably better for Reps at the local level than at the federal level.
9. Illinois (D-Quinn) - ditto, though Illinois is more blue.
10. Hawaii (D-Abercrombie) - ditto. But are there any real candidates for the Republicans in Hawaii?
11. Texas (R-Perry) - in a normal year, Perry would be toast. In a mid-term, however, Texas is very red. A primary challenge could also shake things up.
12. Wisconsin (R-Walker) - recall election helps Walker significantly. Most likely Walker will get a bounce out of this, and a mid-term will probably have a similar amount of votes to the recall.
13. Iowa (R-Branstad) - Branstad isn't doing anywhere near as bad as most of his midwest colleges, plus he knows how to win elections. Unless Vilsack wants a comeback, he'll probably look safer.
Leans Retention
14. Arizona (R-Open [was Brewer]) - mid-terms will hurt the Dems here, though they're not without a hope.
15. Massachusetts (D-Open [was Patrick]) - depends on the Senate race. If Brown wins, it'll probably go to Likely/Safe D. However, Brown may choose to run for Governor if he loses.
16. South Carolina (R-Haley) - Haley has been controversial, but South Carolina isn't very helpful for the Dems at mid-terms.
Likely Retention
17. New Mexico (R-Martinez) - Martinez is too popular in New Mexico to be truly challenged, and her background will probably affect the fact that New Mexico is turning blue.
18. Nevada (R-Sandoval) - ditto. Except Sandoval is even more popular.
19. California (D-Brown) - it's feasible that the state might be so ed by 2014 that a Republican could sneak from behind to win due to the pure chaos.
20. Georgia (R-Deal) - Georgia's probably still a couple of elections away from being competitive in mid-terms.
21. Maryland (D-Open [was O'Malley]) - hard to rule out open seats entirely, though it's unlikely that they can win.
22. Kansas (R-Brownback) - only because one poll had him in a negative approval, but he should be OK and I feel that poll was an outlier.
23. Nebraska (R-Open [was Heinemann]) - see Maryland, plus the Reps will probably have a hand-picked candidate rather than a messy primary.
24. Oregon (D-Kitzhaber) - Oregon isn't very competitive for the Republicans after looking so at the turn of the century, but Kitzhaber isn't totally safe. Still, it's unlikely they can win here.
25. Minnesota (D-Dayton) - ditto. Plus, the Republican legislature is very unpopular in Minnesota.
Safe Retention
26. Colorado (D-Hickenlooper) - Hickenlooper's one of the most popular governor's in the country. The Republicans have better places to play attack.
27. South Dakota (R-Dauggard) - South Dakota is pretty red and it's unlikely they'll lose here.
28. Alabama (R-Bentley) - Alabama's very red, plus mid-terms aren't positive for Democrats.
29. Oklahoma (R-Fallin) - It's Oklahoma. Enough said.
30. Alaska (R-Parnell) - Alaska is very red and Parnell remains popular.
31. Tennessee (R-Haslam) - Haslam was +27 just after getting into office. His approvals have probably expanded as his name recognition has improved.
32. Wyoming (R-Mead) - Wyoming is just too red for a Dem to win here.
33. New York (D-Cuomo) - Cuomo's approvals are +50. He'll win in a landslide.
CT usually goes for Moderate or Liberal Republicans for Governor at least they did from 1994-2006(The Rell/Roland era.) I don't know maybe Tom Foley can win a rematch with Malloy. The 2010 Race was close between the 2.
On Arkansas its been a weird state that has been kind of middle of the road politically for a number of years. It has gone severly R at the Presidential level in the last 12 years but at the state level not so much. I think Mike Ross will be tough for the Republicans to beat in 2014.
