If the courts struck down the whole bill....

[Joe Biden 2020]

Advantage Romney as he will be able to claim that Obama and his Democratically controlled Congress rammed something down the American people's throats that they didn't want.  (The American People may want ObamaCare, but Romney will paint the court as speaking on behalf of the people.)

Obama could paint the court as far to the right and clueless, but if he comes out and complains too much it could brand him as a cry-baby, whether fair or not, and Romney will seize on that.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Advantage Romney as he will be able to claim that Obama and his Democratically controlled Congress rammed something down the American people's throats that they didn't want.  (The American People may want ObamaCare, but Romney will paint the court as speaking on behalf of the people.)

Obama could paint the court as far to the right and clueless, but if he comes out and complains too much it could brand him as a cry-baby, whether fair or not, and Romney will seize on that.

The Supreme Court doesn't rule on behalf of the people. 80% of Americans oppose the Citizens United ruling. In the other direction, most Americans opposed Loving v. Virginia at the time.

You're right, but Romney could paint it as such saying the "people have been vindicated."

[Joe Biden 2020]

The 2012 election impact depends on how the campaigns spin it, but the political effects of striking down the whole bill versus part of the bill are quite significant for 2016.

The "must carry" provisions are popular and unlikely to be repealed before causing real havoc, which without some form of "must purchase" they will.  If the Supreme Court strikes down only part of the act, they will have created a ticking political time bomb that will cause significant damage to the incumbent party in 2016 unless the bomb gets unexpectedly defused in time.

So, you're saying that if the whole bill gets tossed that it may propel Mitt Romney into the White House as the 45th President, but we'll likely be looking at a Democratic 46th President starting January 2017?

[Joe Biden 2020]

It will be interesting what the courts decide either way.  I have a funny feeling we will know something this week, or at least I hope so.

I think, so, that whatever is decided will have the effects diminished, but not erased entirely, by the time November 6 arrives.  It's still the end of June, still 4 1/2 months from November 6, so while this is a monumental decision forthcoming, the effects in early November will be less than what is perceived if nothing other than most Americans are not paying attention to the race just yet, and probably won't until at least after the Summer Olympics.  I suspect if this decision were to happen after 1 August, it would have a lot more effect.