Obama and Romney Now Running About Even

[Frodo]

Though more still expect President Obama to win a second term.

That's quite a disconnect there, and Obama doesn't have the benefit of the relatively healthy economy that Bush had eight years ago...  

[cope1989]

I think people are failing to put things into perspective.

Yes, the economy in basic terms was healthier than it is today, but people still saw the economy in 2004 as soft compared to the booming economy of the late 90s. In November of 2004, the unemployment rate was 5.4%, considerably higher than 3.9% in November of 2000. So, if anything, a lot of people probably thought we were worse off in 2004 under four years of Bush, economically speaking. Of course, the 2004 election wasn't about the economy.

What I think is remarkable is the fact that Obama's chances are as good as they are- he still beats Romney by a few points when you look at the polling averages. We're experiencing the worst streak of high unemployment since the great depression, I believe it's been over 8% for 40 months now. And of course when people see the raw numbers they're inclined to believe that Obama is toast.

But the perspective is what changes things. Most Americans still blame Bush for the recession more than Obama. And unbelievably, some polls show that a majority of Americans see themselves as better off than they were four years ago.

Voters have short attention spans, and the boom years of the Clinton era and even the bubble years of the Bush administration, are distant memories. Many people remember where we were in the fall of 2008 and early 2009- global panic, banks shutting down, hundreds of thousands of jobs lost every month- and they see things now at least much more stable than they were, which is seen as an improvement. I think that's what's really helping Obama right now, and Romney doesn't seem to get it.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama doesn't have the benefit of the relatively healthy economy that Bush had eight years ago...  

LOL!

[Governor Maxwell]

It's probably going to be like this for thee next couple of months. Theres a fifty fifty chance either one will win.

[Senator Snowstalker]

I'm not making any predictions about November until at least after the first debate.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I feel like the debates will be a lot more paramount this year than they have been in the past. Romney has more to gain than Obama does, but neither candidate can really afford to lose 'em.

[kingthlayer]

I don't think the debates are going to be game changers. Both candidates are going to be extremely well prepared, so I expect a fight to a draw. If I really had to choose, I would say that Romney will make the unforced error, because he has a history of going it the most based on his debates vs other Republicans. But I'd be extremely surprised if he did it during the presidential debates.

[Mr.Phips]

I think people are failing to put things into perspective.

Yes, the economy in basic terms was healthier than it is today, but people still saw the economy in 2004 as soft compared to the booming economy of the late 90s. In November of 2004, the unemployment rate was 5.4%, considerably higher than 3.9% in November of 2000. So, if anything, a lot of people probably thought we were worse off in 2004 under four years of Bush, economically speaking. Of course, the 2004 election wasn't about the economy.

What I think is remarkable is the fact that Obama's chances are as good as they are- he still beats Romney by a few points when you look at the polling averages. We're experiencing the worst streak of high unemployment since the great depression, I believe it's been over 8% for 40 months now. And of course when people see the raw numbers they're inclined to believe that Obama is toast.

But the perspective is what changes things. Most Americans still blame Bush for the recession more than Obama. And unbelievably, some polls show that a majority of Americans see themselves as better off than they were four years ago.

Voters have short attention spans, and the boom years of the Clinton era and even the bubble years of the Bush administration, are distant memories. Many people remember where we were in the fall of 2008 and early 2009- global panic, banks shutting down, hundreds of thousands of jobs lost every month- and they see things now at least much more stable than they were, which is seen as an improvement. I think that's what's really helping Obama right now, and Romney doesn't seem to get it.

People dont care that recession started under Bush.  If that was the case, Democrats would have gained seats in 2010.